Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018

[iGnP]

Michael Wacha -140ish? really? I mean the gas can for the Reds isn't any better, but -140 road dog on a guy walking as many guys as he's striking out is a head scratcher imo. i might bet Reds here

 

[iGnP]

the cavs might have value at only -244, i thought that they would be -400. the pacers did play them tough last year, i do think indys a better team this year and the cavs are worse

That's a very intriguing price, almost as though books are begging for the Cavs money. I'll spend the weekend looking into that series, I'm very hopeful I can find a reason to bet on the Pacers

 

[quincy k]

That's a very intriguing price, almost as though books are begging for the Cavs money. I'll spend the weekend looking into that series, I'm very hopeful I can find a reason to bet on the Pacers

as you know im an indy fan, underdog story, blah blah blah. i dont see the value at a measely +225, especially with love appearing to be 100 percent. if the bucks lose the first game at boston, imo, mil +225 is a much better play. cavs, too, at -150 if pacers steal game one which is very possible

i got lucky with pelicans playing portland. i bought them at +27500 wcf after boogie went down in hopes that new orleans would get a fa but i still might do okay. i think that they can beat the tbs and then i can start hedgeing.

 

[ill800]

Anybody cap any of these games today? I’ve been super busy. Just sitting down to watch now.

Leaning toward degen under play on tigers/clev, either for the game or first five


Edit:

Under 5 first five -135
Tigers -.5 first five +240
Tigers ov 1.5 first five

Not very confident in any of these plays tbh


Also playing reds -1.5 +240

 

[Xuh]

I've found some Commonwealth Games lines on UK books (WHill, Paddy Power - not sure if any others are doing it? can be a bit hard to find...)

I've bet on the wrestling. Small events like this the bookies know nothing about always offer value but I don't wanna throw gobs of money at it because I fear that'll set off their limiter sniffing dogs.

Men's 74kg - Sushil Kumar @ 2.5 (0.5u)
Olympic Silver medalist (in 2012), should be able to win here (?). Canadian is probably the only threat (...?) and they face each other in round 1.

Women's 53kg - Babita Kumari @ 2.75 (1u)
Has a world medal (bronze in 2012), competing in a weak, empty field here... odds seem good to me...

those are for tonight/this morning's weights, hopefully they'll do it tomorrow and the day after as well.

Kumar won. Kumari... lost in the final?! This is supposed to be free money!
Never mind. I'm going to bet on all of the events tonight:

Women's 57kg
Odunayo Adekuoroye @ 1.44 (2u)
expensive price, but is world class and should smoke the field... barring a major fuckup.

Women's 67kg
Danielle Lappage @ 2.4 (1.5u)
great price, won the toughest women's tournament already this year, only narrowly lost to the olympic/world champ recently, seems to be peaking skill-wise. Nigerian could provide some competition though (but... nah).

Men's 65kg
Bajrang @ 1.53 (1u)
also relatively expensive but this guy has a very decent record, multiple good placings in way tougher tournaments than anyone else in the comp have done even once, ought to walk it in an otherwise empty looking field.

Men's 97kg
Mausam Khatri @ 3.5 (0.5u)
not much to go on here so when in doubt pick an Indian or Canadian at plus odds, they will win 95% of these golds, the odds are good, so...
Speaking of which I dunno why the Canadian in this category is @ 15.00, looks like he has a good record, value there maybe... but seems he's up in weight like 10kgs compared to most of his career which is not so good.

I think it's not unlikely all of the above could cash so I also did small parlays of the above for the degen feelz.
So far I found lines on WHill (...graded yesterday's bets wrong then took all day to sort it out, hope all the above cashes to punish them), Paddy Power (only men's today), and Skybet (everything, plus tomorrow's lines too, plus they let me do 4-leg accumulator not just doubles like WHill. Plus they cash out winnings fastest. I'm liking Skybet a lot lately, especially since WHill just got a dogshit redesign...)

 

[CR0W]

Managed to do pretty damn well at the Commonwealth Games so far this year. Mainly just bet Boxing and Athletics events, some of them are short prices for Boxing but been confident in so lay down more money, mostly limited to £250 per bout but still enough room for decent profit.

Thadius Katua vs Adeola Soyoye @ 2/5
Manoj Kumar vs Osita Umeh @ 2/5
Patrick Mailata vs Mitchell Barton @ 1/3
Everisto Mulenga vs Ezra Mwanjwango @ 1/2
Frazer Clarke vs Toese Vou Siutu @ 1/2
Clay Waterman vs Mbachi Kaonga @ 2/5

Not much I fancy in the way of Athletics markets tomorrow, today was pretty packed with some good value.

Some boxing lines I'll be playing for later on, throwing in some dogs because there's 2 or 3 fights involving Australian's I've watched so far that could have and maybe should have gone to the visiting fighter but were given to the Australian boxers.

Taylah Robertson vs Lisa Whiteside @ 4.50 - Taylah got a bye into the semi final by random draw due to there being 7 boxers in the category. Whiteside is rightfully the favourite but Robertson is at too good odds for me to pass here especially being the Australian boxer, if its relatively close she could easily get the nod on the cards with the partisan crowd behind her.

Carly McNaul vs Christine Ongare @ 1.83 - The Northern Irish boxer secured a stoppage win in her last bout, Ongare won her fight after dropping the first round on every judges card but then secured 2 knockdowns in the bout to win it clearly, I think McNaul can win this if she boxes well and avoids being drawn into a gunfight, she has decent pressure.

Troy Garton vs Anja Stridsman @ 1.50 - Still deciding on this one, Garton looks better, Stridsman has wrecked Achilles Tendon and knee, it showed in her last fight where she looked off the pace but was skilled enough to win, 5 months ago she had a dead person's achilles put into her knee. Garton should win but with Stridsman being the Australian it may be worth skipping.

Paige Murray vs Yetunde Odunuga @ 1.50 - Paige has dominated both her matches so far with clean technical boxing, Odunuga stopped her Canadian opponent in her sole match so far but I can't see her having the same success against a more technical opponent who's style is very much suited to the amateur scoring.

May have some more for the matches tomorrow (afternoon UK time) posted tomorrow.

 

[ill800]

Not a lot I like about the card today

Taking stabs at reds ml, run lines -1.5 and 2.5

Leaning angels but I really don’t like their pitcher much

 

[barrygood1]

Annihilated NBA this year.

- Bullish on the Raptors
- Placed 5 Dimes on Raptors to win East
- Value is there at + odds.

Make of that what you will.

- Barry

 

[mkess101]

Annihilated NBA this year.

- Bullish on the Raptors
- Placed 5 Dimes on Raptors to win East
- Value is there at + odds.

Make of that what you will.

- Barry

Ahh crap I have Raptors to win the east at +380 from earlier this year, and now I just got "coolered".

Thanks Barry.

 

[ill800]

Lol totally wrong on indians/tigers game

Not surprised at all. A bit too busy today. I had about an hour to sit down and relax. Should’ve passed

 

[ill800]

Going to nats stadium for first time. Degen play:
Nats ml

Also taking snakes ml

 

[ill800]

Added
indians ml
Red Sox under 3 first five

 

[quincy k]

@quincy k did you want me to bless with you w a 76ers write up? @mkess101 how about you, considering the 76ers are probably playing the Bucks in round 1

what happened to your 76ers write-up?

i just bet miami series at +440. i also have heat at around +6000 to win east. i think there is a good hedge/free roll possibilty sometime in this series

 

[iGnP]

what happened to your 76ers write-up?

i just bet miami series at +440. i also have heat at around +6000 to win east. i think there is a good hedge/free roll possibilty sometime in this series

I have a big exam on Monday won’t have time sorry but I don’t think there’s value on the sixers in this series. They’re too juiced imo

 

[Xuh]

Commonwealth games wrestling...

Women's 57kg
Odunayo Adekuoroye @ 1.44 (2u)


Women's 67kg
Danielle Lappage @ 2.4 (1.5u)


Men's 65kg
Bajrang @ 1.53 (1u)


Men's 97kg
Mausam Khatri @ 3.5 (0.5u)

didn't go as great as hoped, the two favorites won (Adekuroye, Bajrang), the two underdogs lost, annoyingly, it would have been nice profit if one of them could have done it... (the Indian guy @ 97kg lost to somebody from South Africa in the final, WTF? when did South Africa win anything at wrestling?)

one last roll today... unfortunately the lines aren't as great and the divisions a bit more competitive tonight but whatevz, it's degen time.

Skybet lines:
Women's 50kg
Vinesh @ 1.83 (0.5u)
don't like the price much, has tough competition with a Canadian ex-world champ, still feel will win so having some small action.

Women's 62kg
Sakshi Malik @ 2.38 (1u)
Olympic medallist, has some big name wins, but also has a tough Canadian to fend off, 1u though for dog odds

Men's 125kg
Korey Jarvis @ 1.62 (1u)
Horrible odds, but I want action. The Indian guy in this bracket came 2nd in the Asian champs last year and is priced 11.0 so I put 0.2u on him as well.

Men's 86kg
Who the fuck knows, pass.

 

[quincy k]

I have a big exam on Monday won’t have time sorry but I don’t think there’s value on the sixers in this series. They’re too juiced imo

embid out for probably two games, zero playoff experience, star player with poor outside shooting, coaching edge to miami and you can make an argument that the heat could be the better half court team with the deeper bench.

 

[mkess101]

Live bet Brewers +300.

Despite not having scored, they are getting decent swings vs Matz. Only down 2-0 and 6 innings left to play.

Edit: And boom 2-2 just like that.

Win or lose, saw the value for sure.

(Watch them lose 13-2 now LOL).

 

[ill800]

Nats suck. Terrible degen play. The value was on the Rockies, but I didn’t want to be the guy cheering for the Rockies.

Also, Camden yards is a much better stadium

 

[Chris Wang]

Which teams do you think will make it to the next round of playoffs in the NBA? Just wanna hear some insights and thoughts.. personally I think New Orleans, OKC, Boston, Washington actually can make it.

 

[Xuh]

Women's 50kg
Vinesh @ 1.83 (0.5u)
don't like the price much, has tough competition with a Canadian ex-world champ, still feel will win so having some small action.

Women's 62kg
Sakshi Malik @ 2.38 (1u)
Olympic medallist, has some big name wins, but also has a tough Canadian to fend off, 1u though for dog odds

Men's 125kg
Korey Jarvis @ 1.62 (1u)
Horrible odds, but I want action. The Indian guy in this bracket came 2nd in the Asian champs last year and is priced 11.0 so I put 0.2u on him as well.

Men's 86kg
Who the fuck knows, pass.

the two 1u bets lost, the 0.5u bet won, and the 0.2u on the guy @ 11.0 won (!) to cover my ass and make mini profit for the games overall.
kinda lame, if i'd put a proper bet on that guy, of if one of the previous day's dogs came through, it'd have been a good event, kinda meh as it was...