Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion -- 2021 and Beyond

[MT6ix]

NBA

New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Clippers.

Over 237 points game total for 1.5 units @ -110.

After Pelicans added Nikola Mirotic to complement Anthony Davis to provide a deadly inside/outside game and the offensive pace they set pushing the ball. They have been putting up ridiculous offensive numbers.

 

[Mga223]

Anyone doing any good in basketball this season?

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Decided to place a piddly 0.4u wager on the world chess championships game 3 between Caruana and Carlsen being a draw at -225.

I'm about national master (~2200 Elo) strength in chess, although that's obviously way too weak to fully understand and appreciate every aspect of both players and what allows them to surpass a generic 2700.

Plus, the game is instrinsically too chaotic and high variance in terms of outcomes. Moreso than MMA, humorously enough.

THAT being said, -225 is just a little too low for a draw, which is going to be 80% of world championship games between two young 2800+ opponents. Especially since both guys have had a rest day and should be refreshed.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Decided to place a piddly 0.4u wager on the world chess championships game 3 between Caruana and Carlsen being a draw at -225.

I'm about national master (~2200 Elo) strength in chess, although that's obviously way too weak to fully understand and appreciate every aspect of both players and what allows them to surpass a generic 2700.

Plus, the game is instrinsically too chaotic and high variance in terms of outcomes. Moreso than MMA, humorously enough.

THAT being said, -225 is just a little too low for a draw, which is going to be 80% of world championship games between two young 2800+ opponents. Especially since both guys have had a rest day and should be refreshed.

Hope some of you tailed this pick and were more brave with the size of your wager than I was.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I've been betting slightly larger amounts on the world chess championship (2 units most recently), in each case that the game goes to draw. (Not every game, though) Made about 2 units with one game left.

I was hesitant to suggest some of the other bets here, since as I've mentioned before, chess is an intrinsically chaotic, high variance game.

I heavily recommend slamming the draw bet for the final 12th game if it's anything lower than -300, too. With this much at stake, both players will be cautious to make it to the tie-breakers.

 

[Rubber_duck]

I heavily recommend slamming the draw bet for the final 12th game if it's anything lower than -300, too. With this much at stake, both players will be cautious to make it to the tie-breakers.

I really doubt there will be any value on draw. It is still the most possible outcome, but Caruana might very well go ham, cos tie-breakers are heavily in favour of Carlsen

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I really doubt there will be any value on draw. It is still the most possible outcome, but Caruana might very well go ham, cos tie-breakers are heavily in favour of Carlsen

Tie-breakers do favor Carlsen, ableit not "heavily". But Caruana still won't "go ham", since his chances in a tie-breaker are much better than if he overextends in game 12.

Incidentally, if Caruana was the type to go for rash, emotional decision-making like "going ham" in the final game, he would have never made it to this level, let alone neutralized Carlsen for 11 games and counting.

 

[Rubber_duck]

Tie-breakers do favor Carlsen, ableit not "heavily".

I think almost any gm from top-10 would have better chances in tie-breakers against Carlsen, that's quite heavy in my book. Although i clearly see your rationale, i just think those peanuts doesn't worth the risk

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I think almost any gm from top-10 would have better chances in tie-breakers against Carlsen, that's quite heavy in my book

That's not even remotely true based on ratings alone.

Caruna has a higher rapid rating than Liren Ding (4th), Anish Giri (5th), Maxim Vachier-Lagrave (6th), Vladimir Kramnik (7th), Vishy Anand (8th), and Alexander Grischuk (9th).

So in reality, Caruna has a higher rating than 2/3rds of his fellow top 10 players in terms of rapid play, with only Carlsen, Mamedyarov, and So being better.

This is on top of the fact that Caruana has some of the best nerves in the game (an advantage over Mamedyarov and arguably So in a similar situation), and offers damn little to his opponents.

This isn't even considering the high variance of a 4 game rapid tie-break, where a single blunder by Carlsen can seal it all.

Throwing that all away to play recklessly in game 12 is just not something that any elite player, let alone one like Caruana, would ever do.

 

[Rubber_duck]

So in reality, Caruna has a higher rating than 2/3rds of his fellow top 10 players in terms of rapid play, with only Carlsen, Mamedyarov, and So being better.
.

His blitz is even worse, considerably. Obviously he is not gonna force anything by playing dumbass lines, but he will go for every reasonable opportunity to sharpen the game

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

His blitz is even worse, considerably.

But we're not talking about blitz. First they play 4 rapid games, and there is a much higher than 50% chance it ends there.

Obviously he is not gonna force anything by playing dumbass lines, but he will go for every reasonable opportunity to sharpen the game

And how, exactly, does one take a "reasonable opportunity to sharpen the game" without giving significant chances to the opponent and in many instances playing far worse moves?

The quote makes it very obvious that you have never played chess on any kind of decent tournament level. That's fine by itself, of course, but it also means you're talking purely out of your ass in this topic.

 

[Rubber_duck]

And how, exactly, does one take a "reasonable opportunity to sharpen the game" without giving significant chances to the opponent
.

Yes, it's a double-edged sword, but you don't always need to play far worse moves in order to achieve it, otherwise draws would be almost unavoidable. You can aim for open structures and sharp lines that are outside of king's gambit

The quote makes it very obvious that you have never played chess on any kind of decent tournament level

What is decent?

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Yes, it's a double-edged sword, but you don't always need to play far worse moves in order to achieve it, otherwise draws would be almost unavoidable. You can aim for open structures and sharp lines that are outside of king's gambit

Wow, it's so easy! If only someone in Caruana's team had told him this prior to game 12!

What is decent?

2000+ Elo.

Although given that silly statement about the King's Gambit, I feel pretty confident in saying you're not even 1700 Elo. Which, again, is fine, just don't think you understand match strategy and playstyle better than a 2200 Elo player (me), or 2800+ Elo players in Carlsen and Caruana.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

IDK if there is someone online but...

Boca vs River Plate.. soccer for the Libertadores cup.

Got River at + odds early and was happy with that.

2 hours before the game River Plate hooligans attacked Boca bus and injuried several fighters. Conmebol is forcing Boca to accept the match or they lose the cup. They delayed the game a couple of hours but still some players are not going to be able to play and is all a travesti. All the stress and bullshit is going to affect Boca in a negative way.

Said that River is still at + odds. Game starts in 15 minutes. I think it is a good play.

 

[Soccer Steve]

IDK if there is someone online but...

Boca vs River Plate.. soccer for the Libertadores cup.

Got River at + odds early and was happy with that.

2 hours before the game River Plate hooligans attacked Boca bus and injuried several fighters. Conmebol is forcing Boca to accept the match or they lose the cup. They delayed the game a couple of hours but still some players are not going to be able to play and is all a travesti. All the stress and bullshit is going to affect Boca in a negative way.

Said that River is still at + odds. Game starts in 15 minutes. I think it is a good play.

Been following it on twitter. Pretty wild. You ever been to that game live before?

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Been following it on twitter. Pretty wild. You ever been to that game live before?

No.. I hate soccer and specially because of this kind of shit. The match was at 17.. then 18.. then 19:15 and now is suspended and supposedly is going to be tomorrow.

River Plate fans are making a riot and fighting the police. Note that this match was scheduled only with local fans (only River, not boca) for security issues...

Fuck argentinian society.

 

[Soccer Steve]

No.. I hate soccer and specially because of this kind of shit. The match was at 17.. then 18.. then 19:15 and now is suspended and supposedly is going to be tomorrow.

River Plate fans are making a riot and fighting the police. Note that this match was scheduled only with local fans (only River, not boca) for security issues...

Fuck argentinian society.

This shit happens everywhere...

Yeah, tomorrow now. There's vid of RP 'fans' chucking shit at the Boca bus as it goes by and they're missing and hitting each other on either side lol.

Went small on a draw myself. Game will be cagey as all hell.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I heavily recommend slamming the draw bet for the final 12th game if it's anything lower than -300, too. With this much at stake, both players will be cautious to make it to the tie-breakers.

Well folks, the line was -290, and I bet the hell out of it.

I hope you guys did, too.

 

[Rubber_duck]

Well folks, the line was -290, and I bet the hell out of it.

I hope you guys did, too.

I bet you were sweating all over when Caruana went HAM, basically declining a draw with 30 minutes less on the clock and no sufficient preparation in a very sharp line, at one point even having completely losing position according to engine.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I bet you were sweating all over when Caruana went HAM, basically declining a draw with 30 minutes less on the clock and no sufficient preparation in a very sharp line, at one point even having completely losing position according to engine.

You know, it's one thing to make a prediction and be wrong, a fact which I didn't rub into your face (not my style), but it's another to blatantly lie about what happened after the fact.

-Caruana played reasonably conservatively. It was actually Carlsen, as Black, who initially decided to play in a more enterprising manner, choosing the Sicilian, and going for complications. So the exact opposite of your claim. Now eventually Carlen felt some mental fatigue or nerves and didn't go for heavy complications at the critical moment and then offered a draw a few moves later, but initially, it went the opposite of your prediction.

-It's funny when weak players cite a "completely losing position" based on an engine's evaluation without understanding the positional situation or strategy at all. In a very complex board state, Carlsen missed a series of excellent moves that would have led to a big advantage, but even after which there was still PLENTY of work left.

As for me "sweating all over", I was actually rooting for Carlsen to win. I'm a lifelong chess fan and would have prefered a decisive result in the world championship over the farce of a tiebreaker over some money.