Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - January, 2019

If you told me a few years ago that my best sportsbetting results this summer would be World Cup soccer (footbaaaaaallll?!) and baseball would be breakeven/down a few units I would have laughed at you. But here we are.


Round robin parlay:

Belgium - YES (whew!)
Switzerland
England

 

Switzerland to qualify -145

 

World Cup is getting crazy!

 

Anybody else been getting hammered by the mlb?

Good grief

The struggle is real.

 

Still treading water over here. I took about 4 days off to revisit some of the data in my fancy little model. Today was the first day trying it out and some of the lines made a bit more sense. Will post plays tomorrow and hope they cash

 

I've limited my plays a lot lately. I built a nice cushion early in the year, but since about the beginning of June I've given some back. I'm still solidly in the black for the season, but my trend has absolutely been downward. Oddly, my winning % on bets hasn't decreased at all, but I've been losing my bigger plays and winning my smaller ones.

 

Everyone Don’t forget to put joey chestnut in your ufc parlays

 

Uruguay France...Uruguay have a great defensive record and Argentina game aside, France has been struggling to penetrate teams' defense. I see a defense-heavy game with minimal risks taken to attack atleast in the first half. EIther team scrapes by 1-0 or 2-1 with a late goal coming in. If Cavani plays, uruguay wins.

Brazil Belgium...we've seen crazy things already this WC but if this game isn't over 2.5goals, I'll be shocked. After Japan's game, I see Brazil eating belgiums defense while maintaining their decent defence and not making amateur mistakes (still see belgium scoring atleast 2). Brazil 3-2

Russia-Croatia. I'm going heavy on croatia. Don't be fooled and think croatia was supposed to easily get past Denmark, that was justifiably a tough match for the Croatians. I just see Croatia as a better team than Spain (possession is nothing without attack threat) and let's face it Russia did get lucky against Spain. Itll take them a while, but i see Croatia cracking the russian wall in the second half. Croatia 2-0 / 1-0

Sweden-England...will be the closest game imo (and most boring). Sweden will nudge them 1-0 late or penalties. England did not impress against the dirty Colombians whereas Sweden has consistenly shown theyre here for a fight till the end that's for sure.

 

Easy free $$$$

 

I don’t know what games you have been watching but your analysis of England and Sweden is awful.
Sweden are incompetent going forward and don’t offer anywhere near enough creativity to score. Switzerland were terrible in their attempts of breaking them down and converting chances and they will not be afforded that luxury vs England who are 3x better attacking than Switzerland.
England will win the game 1-0 or 2-0.

 

Sweden are a slow as fuck 4-4-2 hoof merchant side with poor finishing

They are choc full of mediocrity & will try to shithouse their way to a penalty shootout.

Colombia were a poor mans Uruguay. Sweden are a rich mans Euro version of Venezuela.

The longboats are going home.

 

I've been watching Swedens performances since the first game and I believe they will beat England. They will make England work for the goal which will not come, assuming Kane doesnt win a penalty. Sweden will want it more and edge it out. We shall see.

 

Looking to live bet Brewers today. Nothing else excites me

 

Underdog emotion is what's carrying this WC. The technical quality has been piss poor.

Sweden are shit. England are less shit.

 

Just like a fight, sometimes you have to factor in other variables, some intangible. We may disagree but I welcome the discussion. I think Sweden match up well with England actually. England have been scored on in every game. We'll see if England has the creativity and attacking threat to score one past sweden.

 

Sweden have the lowest possession of any side left in this WC. They hoof it up to their two large(but immobile) strikers hoping for a chance at 2nd balls. Their only other offensive *weapon* is blind cutbacks to the edge of the box hoping for a late midfield runner to get on the end of.

England play 3 fairly big CB's at the back(with two wing-backs making 5 atb when needed) & are shielded in front by a deep lying DM(who will clear or intercept the cutbacks).

Sweden's back line & midfield is slow. England are deadly from set pieces.

We are a bad match up for Sweden.

 

Seattle Mariners/Los Angeles Angels
Over 8.5 runs @-125 for 1u.

Line should be 9 runs with Ohtani back for the Angels.

 

Woah idk about that. Two awesome pitchers, two solid bullpens, and one of the two offenses (Angels) aren’t good at all against lefties. I’d def favor the under here

 

Line moved to 9 now at -105. I was gonna pass but will prob play under small now.

 

UGH. Dont hate me, but my smaller book had Skaggs listed and not Barria :/ They literally just changed it like 10 min ago