Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - February, 2018

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First score = FG +125

Ill gladly take this one at plus money all day

edit: its actually FG OR Safety. I think its gonna be a FG, obviously. But getting the safety option is just an added plus
 
quincy k said:
if nick foles has the same game that he had against minn or atl and phi wins today +400 is the best buy

in fact, imo the only way phi wins today is if foles has a 100 qbr day

funny, people still doubting nick foles
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Why is it funny he's being doubted? He played great 2 weeks ago, no doubt. But that's one game, at home, against (like @iGnP said) a team that totally shit the bed. Possibly due to a letdown from their miracle the previous week. Foles looked bad the prior week vs Atlanta. He looked very mediocre down the stretch after Wentz got hurt. Some good, some bad. And now you are giving the best game planner in football (maybe in football history) 2 weeks to scheme against him.

I think Philly can win today, and I don't think Foles has to play amazing for them to do it. He has to avoid mistakes obviously, make some key throws on 3rd down to keep the offense on the field, but he doesn't need to chuck the ball all over the place for them to win. Let's say his stat line is 22 for 32, 225 yds, 2 TD's and no picks. Solid stat line, and I guarantee the Eagles can live with that today 100%. But if Cox or Graham get a couple sacks and maybe strip Brady at a key time to force a turnover, they probably get MVP over Foles in that scenario. Or if Brady is pressured into a couple picks and Jenkins or Mcleod happen to grab them, same thing. And these guys are anywhere from 60-1 to 300-1 odds, vs measley 4-1 odds for Noles. Easy choice for me.
 
mkess101 said:
Why is it funny he's being doubted? He played great 2 weeks ago, no doubt. But that's one game, at home, against (like @iGnP said) a team that totally shit the bed. Possibly due to a letdown from their miracle the previous week. Foles looked bad the prior week vs Atlanta. He looked very mediocre down the stretch after Wentz got hurt. Some good, some bad. And now you are giving the best game planner in football (maybe in football history) 2 weeks to scheme against him.

I think Philly can win today, and I don't think Foles has to play amazing for them to do it. He has to avoid mistakes obviously, make some key throws on 3rd down to keep the offense on the field, but he doesn't need to chuck the ball all over the place for them to win. Let's say his stat line is 22 for 32, 225 yds, 2 TD's and no picks. Solid stat line, and I guarantee the Eagles can live with that today 100%. But if Cox or Graham get a couple sacks and maybe strip Brady at a key time to force a turnover, they probably get MVP over Foles in that scenario. Or if Brady is pressured into a couple picks and Jenkins or Mcleod happen to grab them, same thing. And these guys are anywhere from 60-1 to 300-1 odds, vs measley 4-1 odds for Noles. Easy choice for me.
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not to mention the premier player rating system available, PFF, has him graded as "below average"

https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/nick-foles/7089
 
iGnP said:
really? interesting......
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Okay, I found one option on the props page (those others were on on the futures page). It's basically anyone other than Brady, Gronk, Amendola, Lewis, Cooks, Foles, Ertz, Ajaii and it pays +438. Not worth it now at all given I already put tiny amounts on some of the other Philly defensive guys.
 
mkess101 said:
Okay, I found one option on the props page (those others were on on the futures page). It's basically anyone other than Brady, Gronk, Amendola, Lewis, Cooks, Foles, Ertz, Ajaii and it pays +438. Not worth it now at all given I already put tiny amounts on some of the other Philly defensive guys.
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Agreed. I like my field +800 bet. It excludes the guys you listed and a few more. But yeah, no defensive players
 
Nice write up mkess,

Took

Brandon Graham @201
Chris Long @301
Malcolm Jenkins @251

0.1u on each
 
2u - Eagles @2.75 with a bonus that if they go 14 up I get paid out as a winner.
 
mkess101 said:
Why is it funny he's being doubted? He played great 2 weeks ago, no doubt. But that's one game, at home, against (like @iGnP said) a team that totally shit the bed. Possibly due to a letdown from their miracle the previous week. Foles looked bad the prior week vs Atlanta. He looked very mediocre down the stretch after Wentz got hurt. Some good, some bad. And now you are giving the best game planner in football (maybe in football history) 2 weeks to scheme against him.

I think Philly can win today, and I don't think Foles has to play amazing for them to do it. He has to avoid mistakes obviously, make some key throws on 3rd down to keep the offense on the field, but he doesn't need to chuck the ball all over the place for them to win. Let's say his stat line is 22 for 32, 225 yds, 2 TD's and no picks. Solid stat line, and I guarantee the Eagles can live with that today 100%. But if Cox or Graham get a couple sacks and maybe strip Brady at a key time to force a turnover, they probably get MVP over Foles in that scenario. Or if Brady is pressured into a couple picks and Jenkins or Mcleod happen to grab them, same thing. And these guys are anywhere from 60-1 to 300-1 odds, vs measley 4-1 odds for Noles. Easy choice for me.
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i agree, nick foles playing three games in a row posting 100 ratings is a tough sell. its a tough sell for any non all-pro qb.

the hypothetical foles stat line you posted, unless someone gets multiple picks or ayali can get key runs while going for 100+ yards ala oj anderson, is going to win him the mvp should the eagles win
 
Man OKC looks like shit today. Sloppy and lazy, like they don't care. I took them -7 live when they were down 2 earlier, now I regret it. I'm hoping they make a run early in the second half here so I can buy out and try to middle the bet if I can get the Lakers +10.5 or better.
 
quincy k said:
i agree, nick foles playing three games in a row posting 100 ratings is a tough sell. its a tough sell for any non all-pro qb.

the hypothetical foles stat line you posted, unless someone gets multiple picks or ayali can get key runs while going for 100+ yards ala oj anderson, is going to win him the mvp should the eagles win
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Not if someone gets a couple sacks with one of them being a strip that Philly recovers. And again, we aren't talking about odds that are remotely close. 4-1 vs 60-1, 100-1, 300-1 (!).

And that stat line is probably pretty optimistic for Foles, even in a Philly win. I'm not saying he CAN'T have a good game and win MVP, but the payout is garbage vs other guys. Hell, Corey Clement is 300-1. Maybe Foles throws 2 screen passes that Clement takes to the house for scores that account for a lot of Foles' production. I'd rather take a tiny stab at a huge payout than get paid very little betting on a mediocre QB. Just my opinion.
 
iGnP said:
im not suggesting a bet on this but a great podcast that i listen to pointed it out to me and ive been betting it every year. will there be three unanswered scores in the game by one team- YES is the play, even though its juiced. most people feel like it wouldnt happen but it actually happens at a pretty high clip. its not a guarantee, but its +EV if you bet it every year, which it has been for me

just sharing info. that's one prop im on for sure. ill post others that i took
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Dream preview?
 
iGnP said:
First score = FG +125

Ill gladly take this one at plus money all day

edit: its actually FG OR Safety. I think its gonna be a FG, obviously. But getting the safety option is just an added plus
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Just a heads up, FG at + money is pretty much a norm with all NFL games. And normally its +135,160.
 
quincy k said:
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22056762/ranking-top-10-qb-playoff-performances-qbr-era

for all intents and purposes, this perfect throw under pressure essentially ended the vikings day

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No doubt he killed it that game. But like what you are saying 3 games in a row in these circumstances of 100+ qbr is a tough sell. Would i be shocked?no i wouldnt actually, hes proven he can do it in big games and guy is a proffessional but i dont think its too likely either. I dont rate him as low as @iGnP but i dont have quite the confidence in him that it seems you have. Im more in the middle on foles but a little more toward your direction on him especially with this team and extra time hes had to prepare
 
mkess101 said:
Not if someone gets a couple sacks with one of them being a strip that Philly recovers. And again, we aren't talking about odds that are remotely close. 4-1 vs 60-1, 100-1, 300-1 (!).

And that stat line is probably pretty optimistic for Foles, even in a Philly win. I'm not saying he CAN'T have a good game and win MVP, but the payout is garbage vs other guys. Hell, Corey Clement is 300-1. Maybe Foles throws 2 screen passes that Clement takes to the house for scores that account for a lot of Foles' production. I'd rather take a tiny stab at a huge payout than get paid very little betting on a mediocre QB. Just my opinion.
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i agree, its probable that a defensive two turnover game or a game like desmond howards will win the mvp, i just dont think that its likely and im a big fan of underdogs like nick foles
 
Papi said:
No doubt he killed it that game. But like what you are saying 3 games in a row in these circumstances of 100+ qbr is a tough sell. Would i be shocked?no i wouldnt actually, hes proven he can do it in big games and guy is a proffessional but i dont think its too likely either. I dont rate him as low as @iGnP but i dont have quite the confidence in him that it seems you have. Im more in the middle on foles but a little more toward your direction on him especially with this team and extra time hes had to prepare
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i was very confident with foles against the falcons and the vikings at home, now, not so much for the reasons that you laid out.

the atlanta game was a fuken joke, like it was impossible for foles at home to put up a 100 day when he had done it on numerous occassions

i played a bunch of 16-36 point spread props on that game, some probably wouldve hit if not for the two first half turnovers.
 
qwerty30210 said:
Just a heads up, FG at + money is pretty much a norm with all NFL games. And normally its +135,160.
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I know, I just think the match up makes it pretty likely in this game specifically
 
iGnP said:
I know, I just think the match up makes it pretty likely in this game specifically
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I agree. Philly's red zone D is fantastic, and if Philly is the first one to drive into the opponent's territory, Pederson most likely will want to make sure of getting some points so will be relatively conservative.
 
quincy k said:
i agree, its probable that a defensive two turnover game or a game like desmond howards will win the mvp, i just dont think that its likely and im a big fan of underdogs like nick foles
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Me too man i love a good underdog story and this would be up there if foles could pull it off
 
iGnP said:
I know, I just think the match up makes it pretty likely in this game specifically
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Yea I like the FG lines when their is an elite D involved. I put some on Pats first score being a FG
 
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