Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - February, 2018

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iGnP

iGnP

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Remember that ultra big play that I was teasing a few weeks ago? Well, it's today. Waiting until tip off to see who's in and who's out, so check back before 7 ET if you wanna tail
 
iGnP said:
Remember that ultra big play that I was teasing a few weeks ago? Well, it's today. Waiting until tip off to see who's in and who's out, so check back before 7 ET if you wanna tail
Click to expand...
You still as confident as you were before? Thanks for the heads up
 
Papi said:
You still as confident as you were before? Thanks for the heads up
Click to expand...
For the most part, yeah. Maybe even a bit more confident considering a few small details that I noticed today. With the recent bad run, I'm naturally gonna be a little tentative going large on a play but it is what it is.
 
iGnP said:
For the most part, yeah. Maybe even a bit more confident considering a few small details that I noticed today. With the recent bad run, I'm naturally gonna be a little tentative going large on a play but it is what it is.
Click to expand...

I'm interested, I think I owe you one from last night. I'm in for 1u for your play tonight.
 
My play of the year:

San Antonio Spurs +103

1. Rockets beat the Spurs earlier this year in Houston by 15. Revenge spot here as two of the elite teams play again, this time in San Antonio. Popovich is great at making the necessary adjustments and having his team prepared to do battle against a previous opponent on a nationally televised game (i dont see Ryan Anderson having 5 offensive rebounds in this game as he did in the first meeting)

2. Recent ATS trends favor the Spurs, as the Houston Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their previous 5 games. Injuries have a lot to do with it, but seeing how hot the Rockets have been this season, this can maybe be attributed to an over-correction of how good the Rockets actually are.

3. Rockets will be missing Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon, who both have a big role on the Houston Rockets. They'll have Chris Paul back but I really wonder how he and Harden (Chris Paul can potentially be gimpy/on a minutes restriction, too) are gonna essentially carry the offense against an elite defensive team.

4. History has shown that after a historic individual performance, players/teams have sub par outings their next time out. These are the results after historic performances by guards in the past

  • Kobe Bryant after his 81 point performance: 7/22 shooting (31.8%), 30 points, 6 turnovers in a game where they only beat the Warriors by 1 at home (this was the time where the Warriors were a sub .500 team)
  • Russell Westbrook after his 57, 13, 11 game last season: 8/22 shooting (36.4%), 32 points, 8 turnovers in a game where the Thunder lost by 5 and they were outscored by 10 when Westbrook was on the floor
  • Devin Booker after his 70 point performance last season: 7/17 (41.2%), 23 points, 4 turnovers, and a +/- of -32 (!) in a game that the Suns lost by 14
  • Gilbert Arenas after his 60 point game in 2006: 10/30 (33.3%), 23 points, 4 turnovers in a game where the Wizards lost by 9.

If you told me that Harden is going to have a night similar to one of the ones I listed above, all things considered, I'd be shocked if they beat the Spurs, honestly. I wouldnt be shocked if Harden was still relishing the high from that game, seeing as he loves to have fun and party (he was caught in a strip club only hours after being eliminated from the playoff last season in a game where a lot of people thought he disappeared and gave up mentally)

5. According to someone I follow on twitter, the Rockets are one of the bigger liabilities to the books tonight. I dont put THAT much stock into fading the public, but I usually like betting on situations where im on a home underdog when the public is piling on the road favorite.

6. This is partially tied to point #3 about the injuries to Gordon and Ariza. On the season, the benches of these two teams are vastly different. The Spurs' bench has a point differential of +3.7 per game while the Rockets' bench has a point differential of -8.9. Throw in the fact that Eric Gordon, leading candidate for the 6th Man award this season is out, I think the Spurs are going to have a MASSIVE advantage in second units

I'm also leaving a couple of units ready for a live bet. Because I feel the advantage for the Spurs lies in the bench, I wouldnt be shocked to see them fall behind early then slowly climb back. The Rockets are definitely a high scoring team and that could spell trouble for the Spurs at times. But I believe they will win the war of attrition and ultimately out come on top
 
iGnP said:
My play of the year:

San Antonio Spurs +103

1. Rockets beat the Spurs earlier this year in Houston by 15. Revenge spot here as two of the elite teams play again, this time in San Antonio. Popovich is great at making the necessary adjustments and having his team prepared to do battle against a previous opponent on a nationally televised game (i dont see Ryan Anderson having 5 offensive rebounds in this game as he did in the first meeting)

2. Recent ATS trends favor the Spurs, as the Houston Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their previous 5 games. Injuries have a lot to do with it, but seeing how hot the Rockets have been this season, this can maybe be attributed to an over-correction of how good the Rockets actually are.

3. Rockets will be missing Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon, who both have a big role on the Houston Rockets. They'll have Chris Paul back but I really wonder how he and Harden (Chris Paul can potentially be gimpy/on a minutes restriction, too) are gonna essentially carry the offense against an elite defensive team.

4. History has shown that after a historic individual performance, players/teams have sub par outings their next time out. These are the results after historic performances by guards in the past

  • Kobe Bryant after his 81 point performance: 7/22 shooting (31.8%), 30 points, 6 turnovers in a game where they only beat the Warriors by 1 at home (this was the time where the Warriors were a sub .500 team)
  • Russell Westbrook after his 57, 13, 11 game last season: 8/22 shooting (36.4%), 32 points, 8 turnovers in a game where the Thunder lost by 5 and they were outscored by 10 when Westbrook was on the floor
  • Devin Booker after his 70 point performance last season: 7/17 (41.2%), 23 points, 4 turnovers, and a +/- of -32 (!) in a game that the Suns lost by 14
  • Gilbert Arenas after his 60 point game in 2006: 10/30 (33.3%), 23 points, 4 turnovers in a game where the Wizards lost by 9.

If you told me that Harden is going to have a night similar to one of the ones I listed above, all things considered, I'd be shocked if they beat the Spurs, honestly. I wouldnt be shocked if Harden was still relishing the high from that game, seeing as he loves to have fun and party (he was caught in a strip club only hours after being eliminated from the playoff last season in a game where a lot of people thought he disappeared and gave up mentally)

5. According to someone I follow on twitter, the Rockets are one of the bigger liabilities to the books tonight. I dont put THAT much stock into fading the public, but I usually like betting on situations where im on a home underdog when the public is piling on the road favorite.

6. This is partially tied to point #3 about the injuries to Gordon and Ariza. On the season, the benches of these two teams are vastly different. The Spurs' bench has a point differential of +3.7 per game while the Rockets' bench has a point differential of -8.9. Throw in the fact that Eric Gordon, leading candidate for the 6th Man award this season is out, I think the Spurs are going to have a MASSIVE advantage in second units

I'm also leaving a couple of units ready for a live bet. Because I feel the advantage for the Spurs lies in the bench, I wouldnt be shocked to see them fall behind early then slowly climb back. The Rockets are definitely a high scoring team and that could spell trouble for the Spurs at times. But I believe they will win the war of attrition and ultimately out come on top
Click to expand...
I know nothing about basketball but I roll the dice and blindly follow your lead.
1u play
 
iGnP said:
My play of the year:

San Antonio Spurs +103

1. Rockets beat the Spurs earlier this year in Houston by 15. Revenge spot here as two of the elite teams play again, this time in San Antonio. Popovich is great at making the necessary adjustments and having his team prepared to do battle against a previous opponent on a nationally televised game (i dont see Ryan Anderson having 5 offensive rebounds in this game as he did in the first meeting)

2. Recent ATS trends favor the Spurs, as the Houston Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their previous 5 games. Injuries have a lot to do with it, but seeing how hot the Rockets have been this season, this can maybe be attributed to an over-correction of how good the Rockets actually are.

3. Rockets will be missing Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon, who both have a big role on the Houston Rockets. They'll have Chris Paul back but I really wonder how he and Harden (Chris Paul can potentially be gimpy/on a minutes restriction, too) are gonna essentially carry the offense against an elite defensive team.

4. History has shown that after a historic individual performance, players/teams have sub par outings their next time out. These are the results after historic performances by guards in the past

  • Kobe Bryant after his 81 point performance: 7/22 shooting (31.8%), 30 points, 6 turnovers in a game where they only beat the Warriors by 1 at home (this was the time where the Warriors were a sub .500 team)
  • Russell Westbrook after his 57, 13, 11 game last season: 8/22 shooting (36.4%), 32 points, 8 turnovers in a game where the Thunder lost by 5 and they were outscored by 10 when Westbrook was on the floor
  • Devin Booker after his 70 point performance last season: 7/17 (41.2%), 23 points, 4 turnovers, and a +/- of -32 (!) in a game that the Suns lost by 14
  • Gilbert Arenas after his 60 point game in 2006: 10/30 (33.3%), 23 points, 4 turnovers in a game where the Wizards lost by 9.

If you told me that Harden is going to have a night similar to one of the ones I listed above, all things considered, I'd be shocked if they beat the Spurs, honestly. I wouldnt be shocked if Harden was still relishing the high from that game, seeing as he loves to have fun and party (he was caught in a strip club only hours after being eliminated from the playoff last season in a game where a lot of people thought he disappeared and gave up mentally)

5. According to someone I follow on twitter, the Rockets are one of the bigger liabilities to the books tonight. I dont put THAT much stock into fading the public, but I usually like betting on situations where im on a home underdog when the public is piling on the road favorite.

6. This is partially tied to point #3 about the injuries to Gordon and Ariza. On the season, the benches of these two teams are vastly different. The Spurs' bench has a point differential of +3.7 per game while the Rockets' bench has a point differential of -8.9. Throw in the fact that Eric Gordon, leading candidate for the 6th Man award this season is out, I think the Spurs are going to have a MASSIVE advantage in second units

I'm also leaving a couple of units ready for a live bet. Because I feel the advantage for the Spurs lies in the bench, I wouldnt be shocked to see them fall behind early then slowly climb back. The Rockets are definitely a high scoring team and that could spell trouble for the Spurs at times. But I believe they will win the war of attrition and ultimately out come on top
Click to expand...
Sounds like a recipe for success. This gives me another reason to root for san antonio lol. 3u why not
 
iGnP said:
My play of the year:

San Antonio Spurs +103

1. Rockets beat the Spurs earlier this year in Houston by 15. Revenge spot here as two of the elite teams play again, this time in San Antonio. Popovich is great at making the necessary adjustments and having his team prepared to do battle against a previous opponent on a nationally televised game (i dont see Ryan Anderson having 5 offensive rebounds in this game as he did in the first meeting)

2. Recent ATS trends favor the Spurs, as the Houston Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their previous 5 games. Injuries have a lot to do with it, but seeing how hot the Rockets have been this season, this can maybe be attributed to an over-correction of how good the Rockets actually are.

3. Rockets will be missing Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon, who both have a big role on the Houston Rockets. They'll have Chris Paul back but I really wonder how he and Harden (Chris Paul can potentially be gimpy/on a minutes restriction, too) are gonna essentially carry the offense against an elite defensive team.

4. History has shown that after a historic individual performance, players/teams have sub par outings their next time out. These are the results after historic performances by guards in the past

  • Kobe Bryant after his 81 point performance: 7/22 shooting (31.8%), 30 points, 6 turnovers in a game where they only beat the Warriors by 1 at home (this was the time where the Warriors were a sub .500 team)
  • Russell Westbrook after his 57, 13, 11 game last season: 8/22 shooting (36.4%), 32 points, 8 turnovers in a game where the Thunder lost by 5 and they were outscored by 10 when Westbrook was on the floor
  • Devin Booker after his 70 point performance last season: 7/17 (41.2%), 23 points, 4 turnovers, and a +/- of -32 (!) in a game that the Suns lost by 14
  • Gilbert Arenas after his 60 point game in 2006: 10/30 (33.3%), 23 points, 4 turnovers in a game where the Wizards lost by 9.

If you told me that Harden is going to have a night similar to one of the ones I listed above, all things considered, I'd be shocked if they beat the Spurs, honestly. I wouldnt be shocked if Harden was still relishing the high from that game, seeing as he loves to have fun and party (he was caught in a strip club only hours after being eliminated from the playoff last season in a game where a lot of people thought he disappeared and gave up mentally)

5. According to someone I follow on twitter, the Rockets are one of the bigger liabilities to the books tonight. I dont put THAT much stock into fading the public, but I usually like betting on situations where im on a home underdog when the public is piling on the road favorite.

6. This is partially tied to point #3 about the injuries to Gordon and Ariza. On the season, the benches of these two teams are vastly different. The Spurs' bench has a point differential of +3.7 per game while the Rockets' bench has a point differential of -8.9. Throw in the fact that Eric Gordon, leading candidate for the 6th Man award this season is out, I think the Spurs are going to have a MASSIVE advantage in second units

I'm also leaving a couple of units ready for a live bet. Because I feel the advantage for the Spurs lies in the bench, I wouldnt be shocked to see them fall behind early then slowly climb back. The Rockets are definitely a high scoring team and that could spell trouble for the Spurs at times. But I believe they will win the war of attrition and ultimately out come on top
Click to expand...
Im in for 3u. Lets eat
 
If it gives any of you who tailed any solace, im pretty sure that hurt me a lot more than it hurt you. They limit the Rockets to 45% shooting (33% from 3), only allow 7 offensive rebounds, only allow 17 FTAs, and still proceed to lose by double digits. Time to take a break
 
iGnP said:
If it gives any of you who tailed any solace, im pretty sure that hurt me a lot more than it hurt you. They limit the Rockets to 45% shooting (33% from 3), only allow 7 offensive rebounds, only allow 17 FTAs, and still proceed to lose by double digits. Time to take a break
Click to expand...
It's all good bro. Sorry you took a big L. Best of luck in the future. 2018 hasn't been kind to many of us so far has it?
 
Naught2Sixty said:
It's all good bro. Sorry you took a big L. Best of luck in the future. 2018 hasn't been kind to many of us so far has it?
Click to expand...
Thanks man. Could be worse I suppose. I lost 7u on the game but redeemed 1u on a live SA +16.5. But yeah, need a break. I might throw a unit on a game here and there (i actually have a unit on Nuggets right now) but yeah, done for a while
 
iGnP said:
If it gives any of you who tailed any solace, im pretty sure that hurt me a lot more than it hurt you. They limit the Rockets to 45% shooting (33% from 3), only allow 7 offensive rebounds, only allow 17 FTAs, and still proceed to lose by double digits. Time to take a break
Click to expand...
Cant win them all thats how the game works, you'll bounce back
 
Eagles blowout in the Superbowl.

Also, please stop betting the NBA. Even the best professional services manage like a 5% ROI, it's akin to playing roulette for the average punter in the long term.
 
Gugabe said:
Eagles blowout in the Superbowl.

Also, please stop betting the NBA. Even the best professional services manage like a 5% ROI, it's akin to playing roulette for the average punter in the long term.
Click to expand...
I’ve literally been +50u in the NBA for the past four seasons lol. Roulette my ass
 
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