Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion -- 2021 and Beyond

Black Paladin said:
!!!

The whole state of Wisconsin is feeling invincible right about now.
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Amazing performance by an amazing player. And seemingly an amazing person.

And the rest of the team did what was needed to help him out.

Man it feels good!!!
 
I think there's some essentially free $ out there with an olympic bet:

Ariarne Titmus to win the women's 200m freestyle at -340. She just beat Ledecky in the 400 to win the gold, and the 200 is actually Titumus' best distance. She damn near broke the WR earlier this year and it's the longest standing women's WR there is. It's REALLY hard to see her not blowing everyone away to win gold in this race. I don't claim to be a swimming expert but looking at the posted times this year and the form she seems to be in, I'd probably cap her closer to -1000 to win the 200. Maybe even higher. If she swims even a decent race by her standards, nobody will touch her.
 
mkess101 said:
I think there's some essentially free $ out there with an olympic bet:

Ariarne Titmus to win the women's 200m freestyle at -340. She just beat Ledecky in the 400 to win the gold, and the 200 is actually Titumus' best distance. She damn near broke the WR earlier this year and it's the longest standing women's WR there is. It's REALLY hard to see her not blowing everyone away to win gold in this race. I don't claim to be a swimming expert but looking at the posted times this year and the form she seems to be in, I'd probably cap her closer to -1000 to win the 200. Maybe even higher. If she swims even a decent race by her standards, nobody will touch her.
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Re: Swimming. I watched the 400 and ledlecky won the first 200m then looked to slow and Titus caught her at the 300m and then won in 400

I actually put a little $20 on Titmis +250 for the 800m. Titmus looked like she had more of a gas tank than Ledecky. But Ledecky won the first 200 pretty handidly.

could of course just be a pacing thing
 
HockeyBjj said:
Re: Swimming. I watched the 400 and ledlecky won the first 200m then looked to slow and Titus caught her at the 300m and then won in 400

I actually put a little $20 on Titmis +250 for the 800m. Titmus looked like she had more of a gas tank than Ledecky. But Ledecky won the first 200 pretty handidly.

could of course just be a pacing thing
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From everything I've seen and read it's absolutely a pacing thing. Titmus is 100% the faster swimmer over 200m. Ledecky went out quick in that 400 knowing that Titmus would pour it on, so it was just the strategy that Katie tried.

I doubt Titmus can hang with Ledecky over 800m though. Katie can swim those long distances and just never fall off her pace. Titmus just isn't there at those distances from what she's shown so far. But you're getting decent odds and she's for sure the only one who could even entertain upsetting Ledecky so you do have that anyway.

But really we are very likely gonna see Titmus dominate the 200 and Ledecky dominate the 800 and 1500.
 
mkess101 said:
From everything I've seen and read it's absolutely a pacing thing. Titmus is 100% the faster swimmer over 200m. Ledecky went out quick in that 400 knowing that Titmus would pour it on, so it was just the strategy that Katie tried.

I doubt Titmus can hang with Ledecky over 800m though. Katie can swim those long distances and just never fall off her pace. Titmus just isn't there at those distances from what she's shown so far. But you're getting decent odds and she's for sure the only one who could even entertain upsetting Ledecky so you do have that anyway.

But really we are very likely gonna see Titmus dominate the 200 and Ledecky dominate the 800 and 1500.
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Cool. Appreciate the feedback there that it seemed to be a pacing gamble that didn’t work out for Ledecky

yeah. It was just a $20 why not bet made with my absolutely untrained to the sport eye. Looked like Led was fading in round 3 and had a 5 round fight coming up next. But she just blew her wad going for the finish in the first.
 
mkess101 said:
From everything I've seen and read it's absolutely a pacing thing. Titmus is 100% the faster swimmer over 200m. Ledecky went out quick in that 400 knowing that Titmus would pour it on, so it was just the strategy that Katie tried.

I doubt Titmus can hang with Ledecky over 800m though. Katie can swim those long distances and just never fall off her pace. Titmus just isn't there at those distances from what she's shown so far. But you're getting decent odds and she's for sure the only one who could even entertain upsetting Ledecky so you do have that anyway.

But really we are very likely gonna see Titmus dominate the 200 and Ledecky dominate the 800 and 1500.
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I follow the sport pretty closely and agree that line is off. Titmus’ performance in the 400 bodes super well for her in the 200. Her front end speed is for sure superior to Katie’s and she obviously nailed her taper. Dressel at plus money in the 100 is also interesting although Chalmers looked awesome in the relay yesterday and if that 16 year old Romanian kid continues on the trajectory he’s been on he may do something crazy. I’m convinced it’s either a Danny Almonte situation or he’s on all the gear.
 
Ryan Kelly said:
I follow the sport pretty closely and agree that line is off. Titmus’ performance in the 400 bodes super well for her in the 200. Her front end speed is for sure superior to Katie’s and she obviously nailed her taper. Dressel at plus money in the 100 is also interesting although Chalmers looked awesome in the relay yesterday and if that 16 year old Romanian kid continues on the trajectory he’s been on he may do something crazy. I’m convinced it’s either a Danny Almonte situation or he’s on all the gear.
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You're seeing Dressed at + money? I'm only on BAS and I did bet him but at -145 and now he's -150 there. If he's + money elsewhere I have a shit line haha.
 
Oh wow I just looked and BAS pulled the lines for the women's 200. Hmm...
 
mkess101 said:
Oh wow I just looked and BAS pulled the lines for the women's 200. Hmm...
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If the analysis you wrote is true, then they are getting hammered with bets on the favorite, and probably realized there is no way they could adjust the lines to balance out their exposure. In many cases, the sportsbooks/bookies can adjust the line, and still get the action they want on both sides. There are some situations, like this one, where they don't have a chance.

They had to tap out.
 
Black Paladin said:
If the analysis you wrote is true, then they are getting hammered with bets on the favorite, and probably realized there is no way they could adjust the lines to balance out their exposure. In many cases, the sportsbooks/bookies can adjust the line, and still get the action they want on both sides. There are some situations, like this one, where they don't have a chance.

They had to tap out.
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Yep exactly what I was thinking.
 
Michael Andrew +140 in 200 IM and Reagan +175 in 100 back also probably have value imo. Titmus is -250 in the 200 free right now - I just hit it. These are all on Bovada.
 
mkess101 said:
I think there's some essentially free $ out there with an olympic bet:

Ariarne Titmus to win the women's 200m freestyle at -340. She just beat Ledecky in the 400 to win the gold, and the 200 is actually Titumus' best distance. She damn near broke the WR earlier this year and it's the longest standing women's WR there is. It's REALLY hard to see her not blowing everyone away to win gold in this race. I don't claim to be a swimming expert but looking at the posted times this year and the form she seems to be in, I'd probably cap her closer to -1000 to win the 200. Maybe even higher. If she swims even a decent race by her standards, nobody will touch her.
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She needed to make a late closing run, but she cashes it as expected.
 
Ryan Kelly said:
Michael Andrew +140 in 200 IM and Reagan +175 in 100 back also probably have value imo. Titmus is -250 in the 200 free right now - I just hit it. These are all on Bovada.
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Great odds on Titmus, again much better than what I got.

Edit: And I'd already bet Andrew in the IM at +120, so you got better odds than me there too LOL.
 
Titmus cashes.
mkess101 said:
Great odds on Titmus, again much better than what I got.

Edit: And I'd already bet Andrew in the IM at +120, so you got better odds than me there too LOL.
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you have a kid who’s a competitive swimmer, yes? I was big into it as a kid. Andrew’s USRPT training is really interesting if you haven’t read about it. He’s taken so much shit from traditionalists over the years, really rooting for him to win a gold, not only bc I bet him haha
 
Ryan Kelly said:
Titmus cashes.

you have a kid who’s a competitive swimmer, yes? I was big into it as a kid. Andrew’s USRPT training is really interesting if you haven’t read about it. He’s taken so much shit from traditionalists over the years, really rooting for him to win a gold, not only bc I bet him haha
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I do. I've not heard of this training but I will read up on it.

My daughter is kind of a breast stroke specialist, I recorded Peatty and told her to watch it over and over haha.
 
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