1. Age/wear&tear
- Cody is 25 and is just entering his prime. The difference from his first fight to his last in mind boggling.
- Dom is 31 years old with years of injuries cutting down on his prime. He doesn't look to been evolving much. He has plateaued and wont be getting any better.
He has only had three fights since coming back though, two of them dominations, and a close one with the second best guy at BW. Of course he's been evolving, his ability to get out of trouble while striking has only gotten better and better.
Cody on the other hand hasn't shown much more than hooks in his last two fights. Yes, he showed great ability at closing the distance and shutting off the lights of Almeida and Mizugaki, but he's gonna need more than that against Cruz. We also don't know if his defense has gotten any better since the Briones fight, in which he got caught over and over with looping shots.
2. Athleticism/Explosiveness/Cardio
- Cody is the most athletic fighter Cruz has ever faced. So far in his only fights that went 3 rounds Cody has not slowed down at all. He also trains at TAM one of the best gyms for cardio
- Dom has been slowing down in the later rounds ever since his return to the UFC( See Dillashaw and Faber 3)
Are you serious here? The only times we've seen Cody get to third round were against low level guys in Brimage and Briones, he shouldn't be looking gassed against guys of that caliber.
He still managed to arguably win the 5th round against Dillashaw, and kept getting the better of Urijah despite having slowed down a bit. He's always pushing the pace in his fights, so it's no wonder that he's going to somewhat gassed late in the fight. He's going to make Cody work, so don't be surprised if Garbrandt's "masterful cardio" ends up failing him.
3. Striking
- Cody is the best boxer Cruz has ever faced. Fastest hand speed and most KO power. Cody went 32-1 as a boxer before coming over to MMA. Cody has been training in boxing since the age of 15 by his uncle a former Olympic boxing alternate
- Cruz is a very sloppy striker considering how much of a reach advantage he has over most fighters at BW. With the type of angles he creates on guys you would expect him to have more fights finished by strikes
Fast and heavy hands don't mean shit if you can't land on your opponent, which Cody could, if he didn't rely so much on getting in close and swinging hooks. That will make him very predictable, and, unless he catches Cruz early, I don't see him getting the better of Dominick as the fight goes on.
Cruz is only sloppy when he's on the offensive, but he's great at moving away from danger.
4. Wrestling
- Here is where most people sleep on Garbrandt. He is a former All-American high school wrestler who got interest from Division 1 college schools before transitioning to boxing. He also trains at TAM one of the best wrestling gyms in MMA. He has been training wrestling with Chad Mendes and Faber for this fight.
- Cruz uses wrestling for points. He never is really able to hold guys down for any lengthy period of time.
The takedown will still be useful to stop Cody from getting any momentum though, and it's definitely going to be there whenever he tries to close the distance against Cruz. And the reason why is simple, because Dominick has great timing with it.
Cody definitely has a chance, but I don't think it's likely that he wins. He has the speed and power to prove me wrong though, but not the skill.
