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NFL Super Bowl 50 Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Jae Gibbz, Jan 26, 2016.

  1. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Carolina Panthers -4½ -109 ML -210 o45 -105
    Denver Broncos +4½ -101 ML +190 u45 -105


    My bets are:

    Panthers +102 .5u

    Broncos LB -140 to win 1.25u


    Luke Kuechly wins the Super Bowl MVP +4500 .1u
    Josh Norman wins the Super Bowl MVP +10000 .1u
    Thomas Davis wins the Super Bowl MVP +40000 (broken arm) .05u
    Brock Osweiler wins the Super Bowl MVP +8000 .05u

    Neither team 3 straight scores +180 .5u
    Neither team 2 straight scores +3000 .25u

    Panthers use coach's challenge first -110 to win .5u

    First coach's challenge is NOT overturned -145 to win .75u

    Panthers turnovers committed +.5 -150 to win 1.25u

    Any scoreless quarter +270 .5u

    Highest scoring quarter is not second-quarter -180 to win .4u

    Yardage of longest field goal made - Over 44.5 +110 .25u

    Both teams make a 33+ yard field goal +110 .5u


    Ted Ginn Jr longest punt return -130 to win .5u

    Cam Newton's first rushing attempt u5.5 yards -135 to win .3u

    Vernon Davis receiving yards o5.5 +155 .33u

    Ronnie Hillman most rushing yards +752 .25u

    Neither QB throws over 300 passing yards -198 to win 1.25u


    "John Fox" said over 1 time -125 to win .5u/ +120 .5u

    Cam Newton open shirt Superman motion o2.5 +230 .5u/ +350 .3u

    Pylon Cam used u3.5 times -165 to win .75u


    Kubiak was Elway's backup is mentioned -170 to win .5u/ -150 to win .25u


    Editing so I can add bets as I make them
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2016
  2. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Tailed Norman for MVP. Plan on making bullshit bets like Den by 19-24 +3850 and livebetting the game.
     
  3. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    I plan on doing the exact same thing. There are a TON of interesting props for this game
     
  4. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I am looking to bet the totals for under 45 or something like that. Denver has crazy good D.

    PS I know almost nothing about NFL
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yep like that under #. My first lean for sure.
     
  6. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    I'm leaning towards the under as well. The Panthers have a good defense too. Plus, Peyton Manning was horrible during the regular season and their run game sucks.

    And I know I've already said this, but these are reasons why I really like my MVP props. A likely low-scoring game that the Panthers win + a Peyton Manning that threw almost twice as many interceptions as touchdowns during the regular season. I'm damn well prepared to see cam Newton win MVP though
     
  7. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    He is -130 now on 5d. I put a few bucks on Kleuchy at ridiculous odds... not sure if this has value but why not. Wow I am amazed at the amount of props available for superbowl, its like props heaven...
     
  8. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Yeah, Newton is not worth a bet at -130, but he is definitely the front runner, and I expect him to get it if the Panthers win. I would take Panthers ML -210 before I would take Newton MVP -130.

    Agree with the props, there is a lot of value to be found
     
  9. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I actually like field over Newton at +110.

    First, Carolina has to win the game for him to even have a chance. They are favored sure, but not huge favorites. They could very well lose and then he's not winning it.

    Then, even if they win, it could (like you guys mentioned) be a defensive game where it's 20-17 or something and his stat line looks lackluster and it goes to someone else.

    As good as he's been, I'm surprised he's favored over the field. I'm hitting the field right now.
     
  10. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Ya know, I was thinking about it, but I ultimately decided to pass. Gun to my head I take it over Cam -130, though. You damn well know I am going to be keeping my eye out on the line movement. I can see him getting bet up, and if the field gets to a nice price I might hit it
     
  11. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Neither team 3 straight scores +180 .5u

    I think this has a great shot at hitting. However, like some of you might have noticed, I do not bet as much on non-MMA sports/events compared to MMA fights
     
  12. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Might hit this too. If you think it will be a relatively close, low scoring game this is a good prop to bet.
     
  13. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Yup, and it can even hit if it is a back and forth high-scoring game
     
  14. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Okay, this is probably one of the weirdest props I have ever bet on.

    Panthers use coach's challenge first -110 .5u



    Broncos head coach, Gary Kubiak has been coaching for 9 years and has challenged 54 plays (6 per year). He has basically challenged 5-7 plays every year, besides his second year coaching where he challenged 9. He only challenged 5 plays this year.

    Out of the 54 plays he has challenged he has only won 19 (35%) Pretty bad



    Panthers head coach, Ron Rivera, has been coaching for 5 years and has challenged 33 plays (6.5 per year). HOWEVER, this year he challenged 14 plays, twice as many as he has any other year and he won 9 of them (64%). Which is very high. His confidence has to be very high throwing the challenge flag

    Out of the 33 plays he has challenged in his career he has won 15 (45.5%) Pretty good


    Obviously there are other factors involved and anything can happen, but everything points to the Panthers using the challenge first.
     
  15. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Jesus Gibbs dk where you are getting these stats but sounds good to me
     
  16. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Haha, I saw the prop and then had to do some digging to find the stats.

    ALSO, even though they just have to use the challenge for us to win the prop. There is a reason why I also brought up their winning % and confidence. For those who are not too familiar with the coaches challenge, if you lose a challenge, you lose a timeout.
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I like it. Tailed. After all, you put in all that work LOL...
     
  18. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Haha yeah, it was pretty tedious lol. It is not a lock or anything, but I definitely think it has a better shot at hitting than the odds suggest. Plus, It should add extra excitement/suspense to watching the game haha

    "YES! The Panthers threw the challenge flag!"
    "FUCK! The Broncos threw the challenge flag..."
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2016
  19. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    I'd love to see Manning walk off into the sunset with another ring under his belt, still can't grasp how Eli has more rings than his brother, world doesn't make sense that way. That being said Carolina has a tough match up for them, Manning's not a fraction of what he was a few years ago and Cam and the Panthers just seem destined for this one. Cam's a fucking machine, getting it done with Olsen and a bunch of has beens and no names like Cotchery (for real how is he this good with Cotchery as one of his targets?) It's ridiculous. Denver's got a great D but Carolina's nothing to scoff at either. Just have a feeling this is Cam's time and he'll make the most of it.

    Suffice it to say, I definitely favor Carolina here but I dropped some money on Denver to win the sb last weekend at +460 hoping I'd be in a position like this to freeroll. How much would you guys throw down to arb out or would you just let it ride? Only risked 1u to win the 4.6u so it's not like it's the end of the world if it loses. Would like some guaranteed profit on both sides, though. CAR sitting at -220 atm...
     
  20. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    They are -210 on 5d reduced.

    4.2u to win 2u?

    1u if Panthers win or .4u if Broncos win
     

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