NFL Discussion 47: Cheating Dynasty

[Dash Superstud]

Yeah - the Sharp football analysis article on fumbling has some serious flaws. The comments section on his website details it pretty thoroughly. For starters, he refers to them as extreme outliers yet in his data they rank #2. If you look more closely at the data, it's about fumbles lost. The Pats' really incredible stat is the number of their own fumbles they recover - hard to chalk that up to deflation of a football by 1 PSI. Those are just two of the numerous issues that ruin the argument... but probably the most damning statistical argument against it is that the author is assuming a normal distribution pattern of the data and in doing so is also assuming that all plays (passing, running, FG's, punts...etc.) are created equal when we know they're not. This causes the data distribution to exhibit positive skew towards teams that are more pass heavy or just simply outliers due to a multitude of favorable conditions. In other words - to use 1 or 2 standard deviations to get to a reasonable confidence level (usually, 2 is acceptable because it should account for 95% of occurrences) is incorrect in light of the distribution pattern. Intellectually and statistically speaking, the article is somewhat dishonest... it also throws out the dome teams that rank ahead of NE - woops... take BJGE from NE's running back stable in 2010 and 2011 and this wouldn't have ever made it into a published study.

As for the clubhouse attendant that took 24 balls into the bathroom for 90 seconds... as Mike Florio has noted, that means 7.5 seconds to get all 12 balls out of the bag, deflate each perfectly to the magic specifications that the evil Tom Brady demands, get them back in the bag without fucking any of them up below acceptable levels (which would be a catastrophe as he couldn't reinflate the ball). Not saying it's impossible but it a) sounds almost too sketchy and too tight to either be possible or even worth attempting.... and b) sounds like he was taking a leak before being out on the field for an hour and a half without a break. The smoking gun won't be the tape, it'll be if they searched his belongings or something and found a needle - something like that.

Again - all possible but this latest statement (I think) actually hurts the "haters'" case... but hey, a long list of storied journalists have now been smoked by releasing bad reports with incorrect information... what went from 2 PSI or even more went to more like 1 PSI - maybe less.... and as the SmartLab test in Pittsburgh showed us is that the simulated conditions they went through produced up to 1.8 PSI of difference to the downside in pressure reading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxsXFX3tDpg

But, but, but, Cheatriots! Bellicheat!

 

[The Green Lantern]

People still talking about this deflategate shit?

It's done already. They are still going to be allowed to play in the Super Bowl. Nothing will be done until the offseason (if anything is done at all). Time to move on...

 

[PUO3]

Clearly its not done already....see how the NFL is still investigating and is releasing new info?

 

[Dash Superstud]

NFL's got no proof.

Gooddell's going to have to take out a full page apology ad in the Boston Globe, hat in hand with a sheepish look on his face.

 

[PUO3]

GOAT. Holy shit lol.

 

[Dizzy]

How would that be cheating?

How would filling up balls with hot air in an attempt to later drop them below legal levels be cheating?

Lol

 

[Kerr Smash]

Yeah - the Sharp football analysis article on fumbling has some serious flaws. The comments section on his website details it pretty thoroughly. For starters, he refers to them as extreme outliers yet in his data they rank #2. If you look more closely at the data, it's about fumbles lost. The Pats' really incredible stat is the number of their own fumbles they recover - hard to chalk that up to deflation of a football by 1 PSI. Those are just two of the numerous issues that ruin the argument... but probably the most damning statistical argument against it is that the author is assuming a normal distribution pattern of the data and in doing so is also assuming that all plays (passing, running, FG's, punts...etc.) are created equal when we know they're not. This causes the data distribution to exhibit positive skew towards teams that are more pass heavy or just simply outliers due to a multitude of favorable conditions. In other words - to use 1 or 2 standard deviations to get to a reasonable confidence level (usually, 2 is acceptable because it should account for 95% of occurrences) is incorrect in light of the distribution pattern. Intellectually and statistically speaking, the article is somewhat dishonest... it also throws out the dome teams that rank ahead of NE - woops... take BJGE from NE's running back stable in 2010 and 2011 and this wouldn't have ever made it into a published study.

As for the clubhouse attendant that took 24 balls into the bathroom for 90 seconds... as Mike Florio has noted, that means 7.5 seconds to get all 12 balls out of the bag, deflate each perfectly to the magic specifications that the evil Tom Brady demands, get them back in the bag without fucking any of them up below acceptable levels (which would be a catastrophe as he couldn't reinflate the ball). Not saying it's impossible but it a) sounds almost too sketchy and too tight to either be possible or even worth attempting.... and b) sounds like he was taking a leak before being out on the field for an hour and a half without a break. The smoking gun won't be the tape, it'll be if they searched his belongings or something and found a needle - something like that.

Again - all possible but this latest statement (I think) actually hurts the "haters'" case... but hey, a long list of storied journalists have now been smoked by releasing bad reports with incorrect information... what went from 2 PSI or even more went to more like 1 PSI - maybe less.... and as the SmartLab test in Pittsburgh showed us is that the simulated conditions they went through produced up to 1.8 PSI of difference to the downside in pressure reading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxsXFX3tDpg

great post.

 

[Octavian]

great post.

Thanks... Just wanna be clear here though - I'm not discounting the possibility that they've been monkeying with the football... if the attendant comes out and rats on Brady or if they searching his locker and found a needle and he comes clean, then that would be devastating for the Pats' case here. However, at this point he can probably just deny, deny, deny and it's really hard for the NFL to just say "you obviously cheated" when we know very clearly at this point that the weather conditions and difference between a dry 75 degree environment and 50 and wet can produce a lower ball pressure.

Belechick, Brady and now Kraft will all go down in flames or come away thumping their chests and the current crop of haters will vomit uncontrollably.

The whole fumble thing is pretty ridiculous IMHO... the incredible stat is how often they recover their own ball. BJGE had zero fumbles for two years which is both possible and such an outlier that it skews the data tremendously - especially because he wasn't a very good back so the Pats ran a SHIT TON of passing plays, which are much less fumble prone thereby skewing the data even more. What's telling is that since 07' the Pats are by no means an "outlier" when it comes to passes dropped - in fact, just the opposite... so insinuating that the softer football dramatically causes better grip is challenged by that assertion.

I think we've all lost site of the fact here that the burden of proof is on the NFL and when all is said and done, doctoring the football is a 25k base fine... surely they could assess more penalty but I would argue that if any other team did this, they'd already have been fined and the media would move on - same as when the Pats taped signals. Jimmy Jonhson went on national TV and talked about how he used to tape everything.... Bill Cowher admitted to buying blocks of tickets behind the opposing sideline for Steerlers' spies... no one even blinks an eye at that stuff. People also disregard Aaron Rogers openly admitting to trying to cheat and sneak the cheating past the refs.

 

[Dizzy]

Wade Phillips interviewing to be Denver's DC.

All because the Bungles were incredibly petty and wouldn't allow their DB coach to sign which screws him and Denver. Pretty low class to stop a guy from bettering his situation.

This is essentially the Texans coaching staff from a couple of years ago, it's all very meh.

 

[PUO3]

OJ was innocent also.

 

[SportsBarGod]

More innocent then Brady.

 

[PUO3]

Chudzinski staying with Colts.

 

[RR]

Lol at reading that screen play

 

[JohnnyDrama]

Fan holding a sign behind Colin Cowherd saying, "Sorry I'm late! Belichick let the AIR out of my tires."

 

[RichardSwingslo]

lol at this. I've been a diehard Hawks fan since midseason of last season

Have links to support this

 

[Dash Superstud]

How would filling up balls with hot air in an attempt to later drop them below legal levels be cheating?

Lol

I haven't seen the rule book, but I'm guessing it doesn't specify what temperature the air has to be.

The NFL fosters a letter of the law culture. If they want room temperature air, they should say so.

 

[The Green Lantern]

If the Pats win (and I am assuming they will), will the level of butthurt increase significantly over this non-issue that is deflategate?

 

[RichardSwingslo]

GOAT. Holy shit lol.

Earthling for life

 

[The Green Lantern]

More innocent then Brady.

No way.

 

[Dizzy]

I haven't seen the rule book, but I'm guessing it doesn't specify what temperature the air has to be.

The NFL fosters a letter of the law culture. If they want room temperature air, they should say so.

It's about the end result. Inflate with whatever temperature you want. But if the footballs end up below the legal range then you're now breaking the rules.