NBA

DevilsPt2

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Anyone been knocking down sportsbook on the NBA games? I've been live betting recently and I cant tell if I'm just retarded or unlucky. Took the +13.5 live on the Pistons and they lose by 14. Took +11.5 on the Knicks and they lose by 12. I prebet the Lakers -5.5, should I expect to lose that as well? Are these dumb bets?
 
I'm not sure betting NBA is a good idea nowadays at all.

Statistics completely describe baseball and have for many years now. Thus, there is no way to make money against the books (unless you have some inside information about injuries), since they have the sport predicted as well as it possibly can.

Basketball is very close to that level. The books have always done a tremendous job setting the lines, and they're getting better and better each year, as better statistics and modeling keep being released. The one complicating factor is that while baseball is an individual sport at heart, basketball is a genuine team sport and modeling interactions between players is hard.

However, major progress has been made on that front, and the current style of play in the NBA (tons of 3-pointers) makes modeling it far more trivial.

Them setting the line at +13.5 only for it to be 14 isn't even remotely unusual.
 
So you callin me retarded?

Haha, considering the number of excellent gamblers who have gone broke betting on baseball when they fucking knew better, as well as much dumber shit, losing a few bets on basketball isn't so bad.

I think if you're looking for a traditional sport with stats that you can still make decent money on, the NFL is still the best.
 
Word of advice NBA its another hard sport to predict. Tennis on the other hand is a bit better, i have done good this year at it. Just watch for some players whom might not be in the mood to play well on that day though. I still think tennis is a good sport to bet on.
 
Word of advice NBA its another hard sport to predict. Tennis on the other hand is a bit better, i have done good this year at it. Just watch for some players whom might not be in the mood to play well on that day though. I still think tennis is a good sport to bet on.
Pretty hard to quantify 'might not be in the mood to play well' though...
 
I'm not sure betting NBA is a good idea nowadays at all.

Statistics completely describe baseball and have for many years now. Thus, there is no way to make money against the books (unless you have some inside information about injuries), since they have the sport predicted as well as it possibly can.

Basketball is very close to that level. The books have always done a tremendous job setting the lines, and they're getting better and better each year, as better statistics and modeling keep being released. The one complicating factor is that while baseball is an individual sport at heart, basketball is a genuine team sport and modeling interactions between players is hard.

However, major progress has been made on that front, and the current style of play in the NBA (tons of 3-pointers) makes modeling it far more trivial.

Them setting the line at +13.5 only for it to be 14 isn't even remotely unusual.
Prettymuch. The only edge in NBA tends to be finding qualitative narratives. It's a sport with a ton of games, a ton of scores and therefore tends to produce results very similar to expectation.
 
Anyone been knocking down sportsbook on the NBA games? I've been live betting recently and I cant tell if I'm just retarded or unlucky. Took the +13.5 live on the Pistons and they lose by 14. Took +11.5 on the Knicks and they lose by 12. I prebet the Lakers -5.5, should I expect to lose that as well? Are these dumb bets?
I kill it on NBA to be honest. Either it be a double parlay or just straight bets. But I have a strategy for betting NBA games live. I bet the unders for each quarter as the game is going on, but the key is to wait till the last min. You have until 2 mins left in each quarter to bet the under or overs. So I wait until between the 3:30 to 2:30 mark and if a flurry of points happen within that time frame and the under goes up by a few points in that time frame I bet the under. Hard to explain but a example is this.

The under for a quarter is 40. Within the 3:30 to 2:30 mark if a flurry of points is made that under 40 will go to say under 44/45 for the quarter as a example. That is when I would bet the under. I have made a good bit betting that over the years. It's time consuming a little in that you have to watch the live bet screen for 5 mins to see if a flurry of points happen. Or, another one is to see what the unders or point spread was set at for the start of the game and as the game is going on if the scoring or point spread drops or gets wider or lower than what the bookies set it at to start the game then bet it live.
 
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I'm not sure if he's still around much but @iGnP is the man to speak to when it comes to NBA betting.
 
I appreciate all the info, Lakers lost, I think I'm going to call it quits betting basketball.
 
Portland Trailblazers +115 ML tonight for 3u ;)

Tailed lol

Off topic but how do you all feel about betting live over unders for college basketball? I’ve done very well doing that, wasn’t sure if that was a common route
 
The under for a quarter is 40. Within the 3:30 to 2:30 mark if a flurry of points is made that under 40 will go to say under 44/45 for the quarter as a example. That is when I would bet the under. I have made a good bit betting that over the years. It's time consuming a little in that you have to watch the live bet screen for 5 mins to see if a flurry of points happen. Or, another one is to see what the unders or point spread was set at for the start of the game and as the game is going on if the scoring or point spread drops or gets wider or lower than what the bookies set it at to start the game then bet it live.

Interesting your strategy. I went to watch Boston vs Atlanta and I thought: "Why not try this? I have nothing to do anyway. I'm going for half a unit" and...+0.425un. Thanks!
 
Portland Trailblazers +115 ML tonight for 3u ;)
Winner winner

This Sunday I’m making my biggest bet of the NFL season. If anyone wants that bet, I’ll share it for $20 ($10 for any OG member of sherdog). Just shoot me a PM. Kind of a douchebag move but yours truly has to start working on paying off these medical school loans. I’ve gone tout, tell your friends ;)
 
Portland Trailblazers +115 ML tonight for 3u ;)

Damn! I didnt see that free pro pick but I'm so turned off of betting basketball I probably wouldnt have tailed anyway lol.
 
Interesting your strategy. I went to watch Boston vs Atlanta and I thought: "Why not try this? I have nothing to do anyway. I'm going for half a unit" and...+0.425un. Thanks!
Good stuff bro! I try to get a small profit each day, nothing to extreme but it adds up and then I use my NBA profits on MMA bets. The 1 min span from 3:30 left in quarter to 2:30 is key if a big furry of points happen and the under number jumps up a few numbers. Also, don't bet unders for 4th quarter games as free throws and fouls at the end of a close game can add a ton of points late and it can cost you.
 
Portland Trailblazers +115 ML tonight for 3u ;)
Nice hit! I am a die hard Blazer fan and I got the feeling we might beat them as well with the Raptors coming off a high of beating the Warriors and with no Lowry. But I didn't pull the trigger and knocked out before the game started lol. My Blazers gave you a scare late in the game though after almost blowing that lead lol, glad it hit for you.
 
First quarter bet:

Boston Celtics ML (-115) for 1u
 
Damn! I didnt see that free pro pick but I'm so turned off of betting basketball I probably wouldnt have tailed anyway lol.
NBA betting is almost purely situational. PM me and we can talk about it, just don’t expect timely responses I rarely get on sherdog anymore :(
 
Good stuff bro! I try to get a small profit each day, nothing to extreme but it adds up and then I use my NBA profits on MMA bets. The 1 min span from 3:30 left in quarter to 2:30 is key if a big furry of points happen and the under number jumps up a few numbers. Also, don't bet unders for 4th quarter games as free throws and fouls at the end of a close game can add a ton of points late and it can cost you.
That seems very stressful. Betting unders in the NBA will take years off your life
 
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