It's just not as competitive as some people think it would be.
First of all, IF Nate has a better chin, that's made up for and then some by the fact that Tony recovers better. One has been finished by strikes, the other hasn't.
And in this fight, how much would that matter? Nate is purely volume, doesn't throw with power at all. Guys get tired dealing with his volume, sure, but obviously that's not gonna happen with Tony. And when Tony lands, he's busting up EVERYONE badly. His shots are turning guys faces to hamburger.
Nate has better boxing and defense but still gets hit, and yeah I think it's pretty much a guarantee he'd be a horrible, bloody mess about 2 minutes into this fight. He has more scar tissue than maybe anyone I've ever seen in the sport. And Tony slices up everyone. Your prediction of cuts ending it is probably accurate, but round 3 might be generous.