My Ultimate Fight Night 29 Bets - Post Yours (Part II)

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Went a little crazy on DHK. Bet his line every time as it jumped from +170 to +240

Shields .50u
DHK 11u
DHK Dec 3u
Beltran 1u
Pierce 1u
Pierce TKO .50u
Pierce/Palhares u1.50 1u
Cariaso .50
Patrick/Cabral/Alcantara 1u
Patrick .50u

Also have a six-play RR to hit in three's of:
Shields ITD
DHK Dec
Not T Silva ITD
Beltran Dec
Pierce ITD
TJ Dec
 
There would be nothing in this world, I'd rather see, than Hammil pounding on Silva to get the win.



So hard to picture but it would be amazing.
 
A bit off topic for this event, but how to you guys see the GSP/Hendricks line changing? I like the current GSP odds, but do you guys think a lot of people will bet on Hendricks?
 
I'm on GSP, and I'm pretty surprised that the line is where it's at. The opening line of -320 was far more accurate than where it sits. I truly feel GSP has the better MMA wrestling, he's the better striker, and he's the better grappler. I'll probably end up playing fairly large on GSP. In regards to where the line goes - I don't think we'll see GSP inflate much above -300 at any point.
 
Updated betting log:
October 9th:
UFC MMA & Boxing.
Straights:
Alcantara @ -300.
Chris Cariaso @ EVEN.
Matt Hamill @ + 285.
Multiple MMA parlays.
6 Team parlay(favorites)
6 Team parlay(favorites)
5 Team parlay(underdogs)
5 Team parlay(favorites)
4 Team Parlay(favorites)
Klitschko + shields @ +300.
Klitschko + Cotto + shields @ +300.
Klitschko + Cotto + Dillashaw. @ -150.
Klitschko + Cotto + Mike Pierce @ -150.
Alcantara + Mike Pierce @ -150.
Alcantara + Chris Cariaso @ +150.
Klitschko + Joey Beltran @ +200.
Props:
David "Daudi" Mitchell wins by 3 round decision @ +400.
Chris "Kamikaze" Cariaso wins by 3 round decision @ +150.
Ildemar "Marajo" Alcantara wins by 3 round decision @ +160.
Joey "Mexicutioner" Beltran wins by 3 round decision @ +175.
Dillashaw/ RA goes the distance @ -115.
Jake Shields wins by 5 round decision @ +375.
Shields/ Maia goes the distance @ -105.

All small except Jake Shields. I hope I do well before the main event so I'm not going out of my way to root for Jake.
 
A lot of bets, very low amounts as nothing is all that appealing to me.

.5u Palhares wins by submission +350* vs Any other result
1u Iliarde Santos -125* vs Chris Cariaso
.5u Matt Hamill +300* vs Thiago Silva
.5u Igor Araujo/Ildemar Alcantara Over 2
 
My UFC plays so far:

straights:
- shields: $10 to win $19
- Maia sub: $5 to win $13.25
- DYK: $20 to win $42
- Assuncao: $5 to win $9

props:
- Palhares ITD: $10 to win $37
- Mitchell DEC: $5 to win $30
- Palhares/Pierce u1.5: $20 to win $26
- Beltran/Fabio o2.5: $20 to win $10.60
- Fabio SUB: $2 to win $25
- NOT e.silva ITD: $10 to win $11.50

Parlays:
- NOT Maia TKO + NOT e.silva ITD + NOT pierce DEC + NOT dilla ITD: $10 to win $43
- NOT Maia TKO + NOT e.silva ITD + harris/pierce ITD: $20 to win $50
- Silva/kim DEC + Harris/Pierce ITD + Assuncao+3.5: $10 to win $66

Round Robin: $2 x 10 (if any 2 win, I make a small profit)
- Dong DEC
- Hammil DEC
- Mitchell DEC
- Assuncao DEC
- Beltran DEC
 
Tebowned said:
Updated betting log:
October 9th:

Klitschko + shields @ +300.
Klitschko + Cotto + shields @ +300.

.
Click to expand...




I dont understand how you add Cotto to your ticket and it didn't add any value what-so-ever.

Was he that big of a fav?
 
I guess I have to make my bets now cause I go to work in a couple of hours to count a la senza and they got like over 10000 panties so I won't be out before fights. going big on kim and maia
 
Added: Maia rnd 4 + Hammil rnd3 + palhares rnd 1
$1 to win $3,000

edit: shit sry for the triple post
 
BreakUrBank said:
I dont understand how you add Cotto to your ticket and it didn't add any value what-so-ever.

Was he that big of a fav?
Click to expand...

It's just that I betted cotto + wlad when wlad was a -1000 favorite, FIRST.
I bet again on wlad+ shields when he was a -700 favorite.
I completely missed the -300 line.
 
Finalizing here. About to start another thread too...

Oblivian said:
Part I: http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/my-ultimate-fight-night-29-bets-post-yours-2567497/

Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

Singles
DHK: $7.50 to win $14.25
Beltran: $7.50 to win $12
Shields: $5 to win $11
Healy: $5 to win $10.76 Loss
Leone/Silva under 2.5: $5 to win $7.50 Loss
Mitchell/Cabral over 2.5: $5 to win $7.50
Queiroz/Johnson over 1.5: $5 to win $7 Loss
Godbeer/Kongo over 1.5: $5 to win $6.50 Loss
Butcher/Parlo under 1.5: $5 to win $5.50 Loss
Ward: $5 to win $4.76 $9.76
Alessio: $2.50 to win $6.25 Loss
Araujo: $2.50 to win $6.88
Uhrich: $2.50 to win $7.88 Loss
Hamill: $2.50 to win $7.50
Hamilton: $2.50 to win $9.38 $11.88

Total Risk of $67.50

Parlays
Pierce + Dillashaw: $12.50 to win $11.46
Patrick + Cariaso/Santos over 2.5: $7.50 to win $6.79
Stenson (Tour Winner) + Shields/Maia under 4.5: $5 to win $7.46
Warren/Kirk over 2.5 + Awad: $5 to win $5.90 Loss
Stenson (Tour Winner) + DHK/Silva over 1.5: $5 to win $5.59
Warren + Sarnavskiy + Brooks/Alessio over 2.5: $5 to win $5.57 $10.57
Southern + Birchak: $5 to win $5.24 $10.24
Tirloni + Brooks/Alessio over 2.5: $5 to win $5.10 $10.10
Alvey + US -1/2 Presidents Cup: $5 to win $4.57 $9.57
US Wins President Cup + Shields/Maia starts 3: $5 to win $4.12
Sarnavskiy + Tirloni: $5 to win $3.99 $8.99
Palhares/Pierce ITD + Not Maldonado ITD + Not Erick Silva ITD + Not Maia Decision: $2.50 to win $6.55

Total Risk of $67.50

TOTAL RISK OF $135

TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $561.48 Running Profit = $328.98 (Approximate ROI for year: 10.07%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2013: $29 into $2513.35 Total Profit = $2484.35 (Approximate ROI: 17.91%)
Click to expand...
 
Oblivian said:
I'm on GSP, and I'm pretty surprised that the line is where it's at. The opening line of -320 was far more accurate than where it sits. I truly feel GSP has the better MMA wrestling, he's the better striker, and he's the better grappler. I'll probably end up playing fairly large on GSP. In regards to where the line goes - I don't think we'll see GSP inflate much above -300 at any point.
Click to expand...

I honestly thought GSP was going to be like -400/450 or so.

Hendricks only has that chance of landing his big punch, and considering how well GSP analyzes his opponents I'm sure he'll be able to avoid it and recognize when it's coming. I'm curious to what the GSP by submission line will be.

Unibet currently has GSP at 1.42/-238 and Hendricks at 2.70/+170.
 
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