My Ultimate Fight Night 29 Bets - Post Yours (Part II)

[Oblivian]

Part I: http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/my-ultimate-fight-night-29-bets-post-yours-2567497/

Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

Singles
DHK: $7.50 to win $14.25
Beltran: $7.50 to win $12
Shields: $5 to win $11
Healy: $5 to win $10.76 Loss
Leone/Silva under 2.5: $5 to win $7.50 Loss
Mitchell/Cabral over 2.5: $5 to win $7.50
Queiroz/Johnson over 1.5: $5 to win $7 Loss
Godbeer/Kongo over 1.5: $5 to win $6.50 Loss
Butcher/Parlo under 1.5: $5 to win $5.50 Loss
Ward: $5 to win $4.76 $9.76
Alessio: $2.50 to win $6.25 Loss
Araujo: $2.50 to win $6.88
Uhrich: $2.50 to win $7.88 Loss
Hamill: $2.50 to win $7.50
Hamilton: $2.50 to win $9.38 $11.88

Total Risk of $67.50

Parlays
Pierce + Dillashaw: $12.50 to win $11.46
Patrick + Cariaso/Santos over 2.5: $7.50 to win $6.79
Stenson (Tour Winner) + Shields/Maia under 4.5: $5 to win $7.46
Warren/Kirk over 2.5 + Awad: $5 to win $5.90 Loss
Stenson (Tour Winner) + DHK/Silva over 1.5: $5 to win $5.59
Warren + Sarnavskiy + Brooks/Alessio over 2.5: $5 to win $5.57 $10.57
Southern + Birchak: $5 to win $5.24 $10.24
Tirloni + Brooks/Alessio over 2.5: $5 to win $5.10 $10.10
Alvey + US -1/2 Presidents Cup: $5 to win $4.57 $9.57
US Wins President Cup + Shields/Maia starts 3: $5 to win $4.12
Sarnavskiy + Tirloni: $5 to win $3.99 $8.99
Palhares/Pierce ITD + Not Maldonado ITD + Not Erick Silva ITD + Not Maia Decision: $2.50 to win $6.55

Total Risk of $67.50

TOTAL RISK OF $135

TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $561.48 Running Profit = $328.98 (Approximate ROI for year: 10.07%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2013: $29 into $2513.35 Total Profit = $2484.35 (Approximate ROI: 17.91%)

 

[Tebowned]

MLB:

Spoiler

I got 2U on the rays+klitchsko

 

[BluntTrauma21]

baseball

Spoiler

on the Rays tonight. Haven't bet any baseball in like a month but I'm a fan of Cobb and I think the Rays are overall the better team even though Cleveland's been on a nice streak.

 

[ALAN PARTRIDGE]

thanks for the info

 

[Abrogation]

Just merging from the other thread; tailing JSP and O.

Singles:

• Jason Butcher [+300]: $12.00 to win $36.00.
• Jason Butcher vs. Mikkel Parlo Under 1.5 [+110]: $4.00 to win $4.40.
• Rafael Silva vs. Anthony Leone Under 2.5 [+150]: $4.00 to win $6.00.
• Lavar Johnson vs. Vinicius Queiroz Over 1.5 [+140]: $4.00 to win $5.60.
• Cheick Kongo vs. Mark Godbeer Over 1.5 [+100]: $4.00 to win $4.00.

Total of $28.00 to win $56.00.

 

[cs10]

NHL

Spoiler

well my bets arent lookin too good lol, hopefully the leafs can pull it out even though they dont deserve it, and elec im pullin for you on that over 28.5 saves bet, after the first period it looked really good but shit has gotten a bit slower now and looks like it could end up being close, gl

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

Arrelione, great job on the soccer bets and good luck with those parlays...like I said earlier you are one of the most inspiring online gamblers out there...

any suggesstions on upcoming soccer will be much appreciated.

 

[Abrogation]

Does anyone else think there's value on Jake Shields at +235 here?

Singles:

• Jason Butcher [+300]: $12.00 to win $36.00.
• Jason Butcher vs. Mikkel Parlo Under 1.5 [+110]: $4.00 to win $4.40.
• Rafael Silva vs. Anthony Leone Under 2.5 [+150]: $4.00 to win $6.00.
• Lavar Johnson vs. Vinicius Queiroz Over 1.5 [+140]: $4.00 to win $5.60.
• Cheick Kongo vs. Mark Godbeer Over 1.5 [+111.60]: $6.00 to win $6.70.

Total of $30.00 to win $58.70.

Also added another $2.00 on Kongo/Godbeer over 1.5 at the improved odds of +135.

 

[Tebowned]

Does anyone else think there's value on Jake Shields at +235 here?

I parlayed him and Klitchko. Def think there's value or him by decision.

 

[Abrogation]

I parlayed him and Klitchko. Def think there's value or him by decision.

I just think this is a much closer fight than the odds imply. Everybody seems to write off Jake's stand-up ("worst stand-up in the UFC") because it looks horrendous, but in actual fact it is very effective. Shields out-struck Woodley in their fight, and I feel like if it stays on the feet Shields has the advantage in this one. Saying that, if Maia can get it to the ground I think he controls Shields rather easily, however he's going to have to take him down twice out of the three rounds to get the decision.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

Anyone find value in Godbeer at +380? at this point, anyone who can throw a punch stands a chance against Kongo.

 

[Tebowned]

I just think this is a much closer fight than the odds imply. Everybody seems to write off Jake's stand-up ("worst stand-up in the UFC") because it looks horrendous, but in actual fact it is very effective. Shields out-struck Woodley in their fight, and I feel like if it stays on the feet Shields has the advantage in this one. Saying that, if Maia can get it to the ground I think he controls Shields rather easily, however he's going to have to take him down twice out of the three rounds to get the decision.

its 5 rounds also.

 

[AlejandroMMA]

I parlayed him and Klitchko. Def think there's value or him by decision.

Exactly. If you're going to bet Shields, bet him by decision at +400, he isn't going to finish Maia. Also, if you think it's going to be a close one Shields by split/majority is +1135(!) and Maia by the same is +750. I don't know about you guys but I will be betting both of those; all it takes is another CJ Ross to potentially win serious $ without risking a lot at all.

 

[Abrogation]

its 5 rounds also.

I forgot about that. This just raises my confidence level even further.

 

[AlejandroMMA]

Anyone find value in Godbeer at +380? at this point, anyone who can throw a punch stands a chance against Kongo.

I wanted to bet this line but then I took a look at some of Godbeer's fights on youtube...he is terrible. No TDD at all and bad striking defense, on top of that he's not very aggressive at all either so I don't see him somehow rushing Kongo and catching him with a punch. Remember Kongo actually has beaten his fair share of decent opponents so I expect him to take this one fairly easily.

If there's any value in this fight I think it's O1.5 rounds at +135, I could see Kongo just taking him down and holding him there or peppering him with shots against the cage. Godbeer hasn't fought for over a year and is pretty bad though so approach the line with caution.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

I wanted to bet this line but then I took a look at some of Godbeer's fights on youtube...he is terrible. No TDD at all and bad striking defense, on top of that he's not very aggressive at all either so I don't see him somehow rushing Kongo and catching him with a punch. Remember Kongo actually has beaten his fair share of decent opponents so I expect him to take this one fairly easily.

If there's any value in this fight I think it's O1.5 rounds at +135, I could see Kongo just taking him down and holding him there or peppering him with shots against the cage. Godbeer hasn't fought for over a year and is pretty bad though so approach the line with caution.

Thanks for the info...yeah, I'll hold off on this guy.

 

[PuertoRican]

NHL

Spoiler

well my bets arent lookin too good lol, hopefully the leafs can pull it out even though they dont deserve it, and elec im pullin for you on that over 28.5 saves bet, after the first period it looked really good but shit has gotten a bit slower now and looks like it could end up being close, gl

Spoiler

 

[specialk67890]

Viktor Fasth vs Jonas Hiller

Spoiler

Really? Hiller is the number 1 goaltender in danger of losing his starting job this season? LOLno.

 

[JonSnitchPhones]

I wanted to bet this line but then I took a look at some of Godbeer's fights on youtube...he is terrible. No TDD at all and bad striking defense, on top of that he's not very aggressive at all either so I don't see him somehow rushing Kongo and catching him with a punch. Remember Kongo actually has beaten his fair share of decent opponents so I expect him to take this one fairly easily.

If there's any value in this fight I think it's O1.5 rounds at +135, I could see Kongo just taking him down and holding him there or peppering him with shots against the cage. Godbeer hasn't fought for over a year and is pretty bad though so approach the line with caution.

Absofruitly, I agree with everything you said. Don't put your faith in Godbeer to win because he's terrible for this level and just a guy Bellator probably put in there to lose to Kongo so they can preserve him for the PPV or whatever. But Godbeer is best in the stand-up, and worst in wrestling, so the over at + odds is probably good value because Kongo has shown to frequently wall n stall/lay and pray opponents like that. I'm pairing it with another smallish o/u, the u in Silva/Leone, thinking at realistic worst case it protects me from a loss on props like last week, and best case can combine to yield some decent profit.

 

[AkDeath]

Anyone find value in Godbeer at +380? at this point, anyone who can throw a punch stands a chance against Kongo.

That's a bit hyperbolic, don't you think? Roy Nelson and Mark Hunt aren't exactly bums, especially when it comes to throwing big power shots. I don't think I hold those losses against him as much as others do, especially Hunt, he is a legitimately good striker for HW. Also, Kongo damn near finished the monster that is Cain and went to a decision with him. Godbeer has fought nobody of note so far in his 9 fight career, some of those against a couple guys with 0 wins their career and a guy who is 1-8 with all 8 losses by knockout.

I understand Kongo's striking d isn't great but it would take a lot for me to consider playing a complete unknown over someone who has been fighting the best in the world at HW. If you're wanting to bet Christrum I'd wait until fight night to do it because I anticipate Kongo getting added to a lot of parlays, wouldn't be surprised to see him get up to +450-500, at that point he's worth a flyer since it is HW after all.