My UFC on FX 7 Bets (and Others) - Post Yours! (Part III)

[Wanna Bet]

EZ, all you have to do to ensure your bet is never rejected is click on the drop down box and change it to "accept bet at any price change".

Sometimes you get way worse odds but it always goes through.

i don't want to accept those odds - stickin w/my way thx

There's a third option I choose. It's something like "accept current odds or odds adjustments in your favour".

I think livebetting will be particularly handy for the FX card this Saturday.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I posted this at the ail nend of the other thread but is is now locked. So I'll repost for WB to see and respond to re: Bisping/Stann:

Here's the thing WB, I think Stann is a mediocre fighter. I like Stann as a person, but as a fighter, he is B level at best. I mean, he's not quick, he's stiff as fuck, and he gets by almost exclusively on power.

Let's be realistic here; who has Stann ever beaten to be considered a good win? Chris Leben? GTFO! Leben is even a worse version of Stann than Stann. Who else? Jorge Santiago? FFS Jorge has two trips to the UFC and all he has to show for it is a measly win over Justin Levens. I mean, it's like Jorge crumbles against anyone he faces in the Octagon, like he's allergic to an 8 sided cage or something. Who else? Alessio Sakara? We know that's a joke. The rest of Stann's wins aren't even worth mentioning for forum fodder.

Point is, I wouldn't take anything from Bisping's win over Stann. That win was predicated by the td and we know Stann couldn't stuff a td if life depended on. In fact, Stann couldn't stop a takedown if Specialist Charles Graner instructed Lynndie England to take Lieutenant Stann to the floor of Abu Ghraib prison and demonstrate to the Iraqi detainees what the word sodomy means.

Vitor is on a far different plane that Stann IMHO. He's quicker, his boxing is light-years ahead of Stann's, he can sprawl, he has jits, he can wrestle, etc. etc, Like Wandy, Vitor will give Bisping much more to think about than some robotic-esque boxing and power punches.

 

[KampSiver]

Anyone taking a stab at Hawn +220 now? Obliv? I know you're on it already EZ

I just put like $70 on him to win $150. I think that's a bargain price honestly, Hawn's a stud, I think he's got a decent shot at getting the decision too. I don't think Chandler will be able to take him down more than 3 times or so and I think he'll get up quickly and I think he should be able to outgrapple him. If it goes to decision I see like 48-47 either way and maybe a split decision.

 

[CigsAndMath]

I'm on Hawn very small - mainly for action. He's too tentative at times for me to make a legit sized bet on him.

You still feel good about the Zayats bet? He's lost to a lot of guys I've never heard of.

 

[CigsAndMath]

I just put like $70 on him to win $150. I think that's a bargain price honestly, Hawn's a stud, I think he's got a decent shot at getting the decision too. I don't think Chandler will be able to take him down more than 3 times or so and I think he'll get up quickly and I think he should be able to outgrapple him. If it goes to decision I see like 48-47 either way and maybe a split decision.

I'll be really surprised if Hawn takes a decision. But I like Hawn's price.

Sportsinteraction seems to be down.

 

[macphee]

Bjorn a d Bellator is their matching clause promised Eddie a PPV in March; unquestionably they're thinking a Chandler/Alvarez rematch. Well, if Hawn beat Chandler and kills tat plan, would Bellator be less likely to continue their pursuit of Alvarez being as how a PPV would not be lucrative? Or would they be more likely to press even harder for Eddie?

The ppv would likely be of Hawn vs. Alvarez.

Bellator isn't dropping this Alvarez case for anything, and it has nothing to do with Alvarez. If all it takes for the UFC to circumvent Bellator's matching clause is a "potential" ppv in the future and a spot on an FX card, then its open season on all of Bellator's stars. They lose any reason they have to develop talent.

Off topic, but there is big speculation that the UFC is working out a co-promotion deal with Invicta. Women would typically fight there and only come over to the UFC for super fight or a title match. I could live with that.

 

[Wanna Bet]

Goodfella, firstly I'll caveat that I was there live so the finer details may be murky.

Regardless, I don't think it's fair to say that the Stann win was predicated on the TD. Bisping didn't complete any TDs in R1 and only started to make Stann start to respect the TD in R2/R3. Stann rocked Bisping at the end of R1 (I remember foaming at the mouth like a rabid dog) but Bisping clinched up and weathered the storm like a veteran.

Basically R1 was a boxing match and even with Stann's serious power landing on Bisping's temple, he couldn't put The Count away. Again, I'm not saying that if Berzerker Vitor lands on Bisping, he won't put him away. I think he probably would but it's not as much of a slamdunk as it would've been between Vitor & Bisping a few years ago.

That's all I'm saying.

- Buzz Killington

 

[EzFlyer]

so i was just looking at belfort's stats more in depth, because the props i was planning on maybe playing are up. (i said earlier i am on bisping, but i might hedge with belfort rd 1 or something) -- check this out.

31 fights. in his 21 wins, 17 were finishes. (realistically he's not decisioning bisping, i haven't heard anyone make that their pick, and the odds reflect that) -- of those 17 finishes, ONLY TWO have come after the first round. both were in the 2nd round. terry martin at 3:12 into 2nd and antony rea at 1:30 into 2nd. every single other finish of his 15 other finishes was in the first round.

so yea, i feel my read on this fight is still spot on. belfort can win in first round, maybe round and a half. if he doesn't, bisping has this.

 

[Starkaine]

There's a third option I choose. It's something like "accept current odds or odds adjustments in your favour".

I think livebetting will be particularly handy for the FX card this Saturday.

Livebetting is the way to go with a tricky card
but not everyone can do it efficiently

 

[Starkaine]

also i was leaning towards babalu but after reading all your bets/posts im thinking about a small bet on his opponent
love these threads

 

[arrelione]

Anyone care to persuade me in any way on the Prado and Trinaldo fights? I've only seen Keith fight once and never seen Prado's opponent fight.

thanks in advance.

 

[CigsAndMath]

belfort can win in first round, maybe round and a half. if he doesn't, bisping has this.

I agree with you for once. :icon_surp I have gone back and forth on who I like, but I think the relevant analysis can be summed up in about a sentence.

 

[macphee]

Took a flyer on Bisping in Round 4.
Got Bisping/Belfort ITD at -150. Don't understand that line at all. 5 rounds and neither guy is super durable.
Added Markes/Craig go the distance -165.

 

[PuertoRican]

What time do the Bellator prelims start?

 

[crewman]

Anyone care to persuade me in any way on the Prado and Trinaldo fights? I've only seen Keith fight once and never seen Prado's opponent fight.

thanks in advance.

prados opponont the brother of alcantara i am picking for the upset here.

think of it this way if they both (prado and alcantara) were to fight in a smaller org in brazil I would have alcantara winning all the time but because prado is in the UFC and has fought Phil, people think hes actually good lol

alcantara is a little undersized but that shouldn't make that much of a difference @ LHW

 

[EzFlyer]

Took a flyer on Bisping in Round 4.
Got Bisping/Belfort ITD at -150. Don't understand that line at all. 5 rounds and neither guy is super durable.
Added Markes/Craig go the distance -165.

bisping has been finished just by hendo in 27 fights (and 17 of those were ufc fights, not counting the TUF fights)... and belfort's not finished anyone besides terry martin after midway thru the 2nd round in his entire career...

i would say bisping's pretty darned durable..

 

[EzFlyer]

What time do the Bellator prelims start?

the only one on spike.com is newton's fight

petruzelli-noe got promoted to main card - main card is 10 pm et on spike. i bet it goes well past midnight (it's set for 12-2, i bet it ends at like 1 with 2 5 round fights that might go 5 rds each heh)

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Goodfella, firstly I'll caveat that I was there live so the finer details may be murky.

Regardless, I don't think it's fair to say that the Stann win was predicated on the TD. Bisping didn't complete any TDs in R1 and only started to make Stann start to respect the TD in R2/R3. Stann rocked Bisping at the end of R1 (I remember foaming at the mouth like a rabid dog) but Bisping clinched up and weathered the storm like a veteran.

Basically R1 was a boxing match and even with Stann's serious power landing on Bisping's temple, he couldn't put The Count away. Again, I'm not saying that if Berzerker Vitor lands on Bisping, he won't put him away. I think he probably would but it's not as much of a slamdunk as it would've been between Vitor & Bisping a few years ago.

That's all I'm saying.

- Buzz Killington

Ok WB, let me elaborate a bit more on Bisping/Stann and why I think Bisping's victory was predicated off the td. Indeed, Bisping didn't get his td's going until r2, however, r2 also happens to be the round that Bisping started to take control of the fight. In r1 we saw a see-saw affair w/ neither man really out pointing the other and both just trading shots until Stann got Bisping's attention with that thunderous right hand that put Bisping on wobbly legs. To Bisping's credit he recovered beautifully and made it a point to get the td's in r2.

From rounds 2-3 Bisping was able to secure td's and land in side control. Once Stann realizes that Bisping can take him down he becomes a bit more tentative. Additionally, b/c of the threat of the td Stann is unable to plant his feet and throw with the type of power he is accustomed to b/c digging his feet in the mat for power leaves him open for a td. What's more, not only must Stann must be light on his feet, but he must stick to a boxing centric gameplan as kicking would also leave him vulnerable to td's. Thus the win was predicated off td's IMO.

With Vitor, the threat of the td should not dissuade him from setting his feet for power or implementing kicks. This is b/c unlike Stann, Vitor is a BB in BJJ and fully comfortable off his back. This was true for Wandy as well. Moreover, I'm certain Vitor is encouraged by the fact a BJJ novice like Stann could actually reverse Bisping on the mat and end up in his guard as Stann did in r2.

That said, I agree that Bisping has evolved into a terrific fighter and that he has found his niche so to speak. However, he still has a few holes in his game that concern me - specifically those being of the mental variety. Losing to Wandy was inexcusable. Circling into Hendo's power as your corner begged you not to is inexcusable. I dopn't know what it is but Mike panics vs. power punchers and all that may be fine right now, but as soon as Vitor lands the hammer will we see Bisping revert to his old ad habits? Not w/ my money.

 

[macphee]

bisping has been finished just by hendo in 27 fights (and 17 of those were ufc fights, not counting the TUF fights)... and belfort's not finished anyone besides terry martin after midway thru the 2nd round in his entire career...

i would say bisping's pretty darned durable..

I guess so. He just seems so damn chinny every time he gets dropped. At worse it'll help cover my Bisping loses.

I see the fight ending with either Belfort ripping up Bisping in the first 7 minutes, or Bisping getting a late TKO. Both of those are more likely than Bisping riding out a decision or Belfort doing... something and winning 3 out of 5 rounds.

It will be an expensive night for me if Belfort discovers his inner Fitch.

 

[KampSiver]

Took a flyer on Bisping in Round 4.
Got Bisping/Belfort ITD at -150. Don't understand that line at all. 5 rounds and neither guy is super durable.
Added Markes/Craig go the distance -165.

Gotta Disagree, I would say Bisping is probably like a top 3 or so Durable guy in all of the UFC, only finished once by Hendo and everyone woulda been finished by that punch. Plus he took a lot of big shots from Hendo b4 that one. Also, I love Bisping and he has incredible cardio but he's not a top notch finisher either. I do give him a great shot to finish Vitor IF he gases early like mid third round. I think he probably will gas by then though so I do think it's probably a decent bet, but ur best shot on that bet is probably a quick Vitor knockout, otherwise I give it probably like a 65% shot at decision and 35% shot at a finish later than round 3.