My UFC on FX 7 Bets (and Others) - Post Yours! (Part III)

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Oblivian

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Part 1 of the thread is here: http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/my-ufc-fx-7-bets-others-post-yours-2344839/

Part 2 of the thread is here: http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/my-ufc-fx-7-bets-others-post-yours-part-ii-2354255/

Same drill as always. Post bets and discuss bets/matchups. Thread is always bumped afterwards.

I've got some early plays going. I'll probably only play around $100-$150. I'm not really liking this card too much overall.

Update in green. Green is win + risk. I ended up betting a lot more over these events than planned. I bet a total of $232.50 and walked away with $256.59 for a profit of $24.09 (10.4%). I actually was behind $25 or so after Bellator, so the UFC event was good to me.

Singles
Gonzaga: $12.50 to win $16.88 29.38
Freire: $12.50 to win $13 Loss
Nunes: $12.50 to win $7.58 Loss
Khabib: $12.50 to win $7.35 $19.85
Petruzelli: $12.50 to win $7.58 Loss
Payan: $7.50 to win $5.77 $13.27
Saffiedine: $5 to win $12.50 $17.50
Anthony Smith: $5 to win $12.50 Loss
Ildemar Alcantara: $5 to win $10.50 $15.50
Pepey: $5 to win $8.75 $13.75
Saff/Marquardt doesn't go 5: $5 to win $8.25 Loss
Dolloway: $5 to win $7.50 $12.50
Chandler/Hawn goes over 4.5: $5 to win $6 Loss
Kyle: $2.50 to win $8 Loss
Herman: $2.50 to win $7.50 Loss
Martins: $2.50 to win $7.25 Loss
CJ Keith: $2.50 to win $7 Loss

$115 to win $153.91 $121.75

Parlays
Klitschko + Cruz + Cleverly + Froch + Price + Bisping: $12.50 to win $20.97 Loss
Barnett + Noons: $12.50 to win $7.85 Loss
Khabib + Yuri Alcantara: $10 to win $5.88 (revised after Alcantara NC) $15.88
Healy + Kennedy + Cormier + Barnett: $10 to win $6.95 $16.95
Colts (over Chiefs) + Hawn: $5 to win $13.07 Loss
Markes + Yuri Alcantara + Newton + Not Belfort Decision: $5 to win $5.17 (revised after Alcantara NC) $10.17
Field over T. Clark (golf) + Caballero (box) + Hernandez (box) + Perez (box) + Cormier + Barnett + Healy + Kennedy + Not Belfort Dec: $5 to win $6.96 $11.96
Barcelona/Malaga neither team 4 goals + Newton: $5 to win $6 $11
Field over Stricker (golf) + Gavin (boxing) + Cormier + Gonzaga/Rothwell ITD + Not Belfort by Dec: $5 to win $5.51 $10.51
Marquardt/Saff starts 2nd + Barnett ITD + Kyle/Mousasi ITD: $5 to win $5.04 $10.04
Field over Kuchar (golf) + Gurgel: $2.50 to win $7.95 Loss
Zayats + Newton: $2.50 to win $8.69 $11.19
Nunes + Baszler + Dolloway: $2.50 to win $12.35 Loss
Gavin + Gonzaga + Markes + Nunes + Yuri Alcantara + Petruzelli + Newton + Not Belfort ITD: $2.50 to win $28.88 Loss

$85.00 to win $146.24 $97.70

Props Added After Bellator
Bisping/Belfort doesn't go 5: $10 to win $5.67 $15.67
Martins/Barboza goes 3: $5 to win $9.50 Loss
Craig/Markes + Lentz/Nunes goes 3: $5 to win $5.67 $10.67
Markes via decision: $5 to win $5.80 $10.80
Nunes via decision: $5 to win $7.30 Loss
Belfort via decision (hedge): $2.50 to win $21.75 Loss

$32.50 to win $33.94 $37.14

TOTAL OF $232.50 TO WIN $326.79 $256.59


TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $256.59. Running Profit = $24.09 (Approximate ROI for year: 10.4%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2013: $29 into $2229.89 Total Profit = $2200.89 (Approximate ROI: 20.3%)
 
Last edited:
so far my plays are:

freire $10 to win $10.60
zayats $5 to win $10.50
zayats-sobral o1.5 $10 to win $9.90


gonzaga $40 to win 34.18
bisping $35 to win 36.90
bisping-belfort o2.5 $20 to win $14.29
dollaway $10 to win $15.80
khabib $15 to win $10


might put some last minute bellator plays and at current odds, might add a play on nunes
 
Wow part 3! Great to see more peeps getting involved. Have a few Bellator plays, but can't remember the amounts as I'm posting from my phone.

Bellator bets:
Pitbull - 8 to win 8
Chandler + Man Utd
Sobral + Newton

Had a great night of profit with the Strikeforce card, hope it goes well for everyone for FX 7.
 
Pitbull 46 to win 47

Zayats 12 to win 23

Petruzelli 25 to win 15

Hawn 26 to win 56



Bets for Bellator hopefully I don't get killed b/c I'm betting Zayats w/o seeing much tape of him and I'm fading Babalu a bit as well. I don't know much about Noe other than Seth will be by far the best fighter he's been in with and that's definitely not the case with Seth.

Love Pitbull against Curran. I think he has a clear standup advantage and the fact that Curran doesn't throw at all for long periods of time will also hurt his chances at winning rounds.

I favor Chandler but there was too much value in Hawn at +215 to pass up. He has a ton of power at 155, especially in that right hand. If he lands clean Chandler will feel it, just a matter of if he can stop td's, show solid cardio, and finish the job if he does manage to hurt Mike. Not expecting it to happen but I think it's a very real possibility.

GL boys.
 
50 on Hawn
100 on Freire
50 on Seth
5 on the three above and Babalu

75 on Bisping/Belfort to not go the distance
100 on Gonzaga(50 at +135, 50 at -105)
60ish on Tavares from -110 to +135, this might worst prediction in line movement ever


I'll add a bunch more when the lines are released on 5d/pinnacle.
 
So far:
Zayats $50 to win $103
Gonzaga $220 to win $200 (planning to arb out)
Freeroll Sarafian to win $50, Freeroll Dollaway to win $44
 
Might put a last minute bet on the guy Seth is fighting. He looked really really bad at K-1 in his last fight. I don't know very much about his opponent though.
 
Damn Babalu looks old. Think he will get stopped before the finals?
 
Mikedh if you want to play an underdog, I'd play Babulu's opponent. Seth should beat his opponent pretty easy imo.
 
Zayats: 100
Djambazov: 50
Hawn: 50
Noe: 50
Pitbull: 250
 
One concern with zayats is that all the fights Ive seen him in has been in a ring, the wrestling is alot different in the cage.

He also seems undersized in his fights.
 
One concern with zayats is that all the fights Ive seen him in has been in a ring, the wrestling is alot different in the cage.

He also seems undersized in his fights.

i would think that the cage would be easier. can press against it and wall walk to get back up if needed
 
i would think that the cage would be easier. can press against it and wall walk to get back up if needed
of course but the guy with the more cage training, cage experience would benefit more then a guy with more ring experience
 
EZ my man!! Got my first ever win on my first ever play on Tennis!

So awesome to wake up to. I owe you bud!

tennis-2_zps49c46058.jpg
 
EZ my man!! Got my first ever win on my first ever play on Tennis!

So awesome to wake up to. I owe you bud!

tennis-2_zps49c46058.jpg

in the same boat, thanks EZ for the play. Will tail anybody else that feels confident of a bet. don't be scared homie
 
Here are my picks thus far:

  • Gonzaga $8.40 tw $7.00
  • Grant over Wiman$10.00 tw $8.33
  • Zayats over Babalu $5.00 tw $9.75
  • Belfort over Bisping: $30.00 tw $22.22
  • Gonzaga over Rothwell: $10.00 tw $8.33
  • Dolloway over Sarafian: $10.00 tw $15.00

So far I have $73.40 to win $70.63

I plan to add several more bets later this afternoon and most of them will be parlays. I like making 2 and 3 man parlays, but I haven't decided who to match with.

Also if Rampage's line gets any higher I' going to have to make a small play. I agree Glover is the better fighter at this point in their careers, however, power is the last thing to go in an aging fighter and Rampage possesses it in droves. If Rampage looks good at thd Weigh-in then I'll likely make a pay on him.
 
I've got an action play on Rampage. I'm hoping Glover is aggressive with him. Rampage just seems so unmotivated and passive lately, so I'm hoping Glover's aggression brings it out of him.
 
Things get heated during the press conference:
belfort_bisping_ufc_rib-1.jpg_95.jpg

bisping_coletivaufc_rib-3.jpg_95.jpg

vitorbelfort_coletivaufc2_rib.jpg.jpg_95.jpg

and we aint even got to the actual weigh ins yet
 
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