My UFC on FX 7 Bets (and Others) - Post Yours! (Part II)

[macphee]

is that 1/10 per bet or per card?

i tend to bet about 1-5% of my bankroll per fight, to a total of 10-15% of bankroll for a given event.

am i being overly concervative, or does that sound about right?

I don't think that's too bad. I don't think anything is too bad as long as you don't bet 100% of what you have. Expected growth for 100% is always 0. I do 1/8 of Kelly per bet, but I also only calculate it from the portion of my bankroll I have set aside for MMA/Boxing. My NBA and Baseball money stay separate.

I'm not entirely sold that Kelly is the best way to bet MMA, mainly because the line movement is so extreme. Look at Jon Tuck awhile ago. Started at +125 and ended at -360 or something. Everyone, no matter what they had capped it, would have a huge portion of bankroll on that fight according to Kelly.

Kelly is more useful in Baseball, when your edge is less insane.

 

[J0N0]

YOU HAVE TO ADD HIM IN WITH 5 OTHER FAVORITES TO SAY THANK ME LATER!

I already have him with JDS, Johnson, Guillard and Leben who I presume all won at 155 so I'm gonna make BANK son, BANK!

 

[macphee]

I read on MMAJunkie (http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2013/...gracie-focused-on-impressive-strikeforce-win?) Gracie spent time with Blackhouse & Team Nogueira for this fight. He will have Machida & Renzo in his corner for this fight, that makes me even more sure in Gracie.

Smart move by Blackhouse. How much crazier would that team be if they got Gracie to run BJJ seminars?

 

[PuertoRican]

YOU HAVE TO ADD HIM IN WITH 5 OTHER FAVORITES TO SAY THANK ME LATER!



I read on MMAJunkie (http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2013/...gracie-focused-on-impressive-strikeforce-win?) Gracie spent time with Blackhouse & Team Nogueira for this fight. He will have Machida & Renzo in his corner for this fight, that makes me even more sure in Gracie.

Can't go wrong with Renzo and Machida's special elixir.

I originally was going to bed on Smith, but then I thought about it, and stuck with Gracie.

 

[Goreds1994]

I already have him with JDS, Johnson, Guillard and Leben who I presume all won at 155 so I'm gonna make BANK son, BANK!

So much bank!

Smart move by Blackhouse. How much crazier would that team be if they got Gracie to run BJJ seminars?

More so for Gracie's striking development. If he could improve that he's got a solid chance in MMA to be a top contender.

 

[EzFlyer]

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Weighin-Video-Strikeforce-Marquardt-vs-Saffiedine-48963

weigh in live

 

[EzFlyer]

very uneventful weighin for me. why didn't they show the prelims.. weird. marq and saff looked awesome. they're the same height too, for the record =P

oh wow, they're showing the prelim fighters now....orr..not.... as they just cut away from it... lol wth.

 

[macphee]

Nothing stood out for me in the weigh-ins. Dion Staring apparently waxes his chest but not his back. I... don't know if that's a good idea or not.

EDIT: The audio was messed up for me. Might just be my computer.

 

[EzFlyer]

props are up for saff-marq.. UGH saff decision opened +533 and i missed it.. down to +405 now... huge juice....

 

[Goreds1994]

I need Doctor JKD's analysis.

 

[Rastakolnikov]

What do you guys think about the under 1.5rds props in the heavyweight squash matches?
Currently both around -160 to -170

 

[J0N0]

I need Doctor JKD's analysis.

pm me your address and I'll send you some cream in the post

 

[betterthanjones]

What do you guys think about the under 1.5rds props in the heavyweight squash matches?
Currently both around -160 to -170

Wouldn't be a bad bet for Barnett/Nandor, I do expect Barnett to waltz through him in whatever fashion he wants to. Not so certain about Cormier/Staring, might end up to be a decision victory for Cormier.

 

[electricute]

finalled my bets for tomorrow. Again just for shit, i haven't done any homework on this even other than read the thread and look at records

Nandor $5 to win $ 51.30
marq $20 to win $6.78
marq/saff u4.5 $10 to win $8.33
a.smith $5 to win $12.75
souza +mousasi $20 to win $10
noon $20 to win $12.2
payan $10 to win $7.35
mart+pay+ken+heal+souz+marq $10 to win $46

TOTAL RISk: $100 to win $146.38

 

[Jet Lag]

Made my bets, more for the fun (the only thing I can do in the exams that are fun...), so if I loose some of those bets, I will not be surprised.

5$ on A. Smith to win 13$

15$ on Marq, Mousasi and Souza to win 14.96$
10$ on Martins and Payan to win 13.38$
10$ on Healy and Noons to win 9.06$
10$ on Marq, Mousasi, Souza, Healy, Kennedy, Noons, Martins and Payan to win 100$



Good luck everybody!

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Made a few bets:

Parlay (3 picks)Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza -400 Pat "Bam Bam" Healy -500 Tim Kennedy -450
Risk US$ 60.00
To WinUS$ 50.00

AND .. A LMAO HM Parlay that is sure to hit!!

Parlay (12 picks)Adriano Martins -280 Tim Kennedy -500 Pat "Bam Bam" Healy -500 Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza -400 Gegard "The Dreamcatcher" Mousasi -500 Khabib "The Eagle" Nurmagomedov -170 Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson -230 Urijah "The California Kid" Faber -350 "Suga" Rashad Evans -450 Alistair "Demolition Man" Overeem -375 Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida -225 George "Rush" St. Pierre -450
Risk US$ 10.00
To WinUS$ 224.74

_____________

 

[arrelione]

I played some small parlays and a bunch of futures. The most important fighters to me are Jacare, Gracie & Healy. Im also on Marquardt, Noons & Gracie.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

lol damn wasnt paying attention and accidentally bet 100 on lentz at even money, i was considering betting him as a dog but didnt want this lol ah well

I did this on accident w/ Chadd Griggs for $30.00 lol

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Even money on Lentz/Nunes? What site is this on? I'll drop some $$$ on Diego at even.

arrelione, why the dubbs? PM me if you need to.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Bingo

You're giving Marquardt a 95% chance? Dude, that is insanity. I think Nate wins too, but 95% is fucking ludicrous. Hell, he has a 5% chance alone of simply injuring himself in the cage. Additionally you're not factoring in a judges decision which could be abysmal; and w/ the MMA judges history there is a good chance that Nate gets fucked in a close fight. What's more, Tarec is a good enough striker that he could put Nate's lights out. Don't tell me he can't b/c T-Wood is among the worst strikers in MMA and he plastered Nate w/ 3 straight rights that weren't set up w/ anything; just 3 monster winging rights that connected in a single series w/ the final shot dropping Nate.

Furthermore, you are discounting the occurrence of a point deduction or even DQ. This is not too outlandish given that Nate has a history of breaking the rules. In 2001 during his Pancrase run Nate was tapping out to a Ricardo Almeida guillotine; however, b/c the referee didn't pull them apart immediately and Almeida kept the hold, as soon as he let go Nate threw a punch. This of course led to Renzo rushing in to kick him in the face. Then there was his fight w/ Thales Leites where Marquardt landed an illegal knee strike to the head and then an elbow to the side of the head. Also, Nate thrust Leites in the air late in the 3rd round and spiked him on his head; an illegal move in which he was not penalized. Regardless, the deducted points for the knee and elbow cost him the win.

So, to believe anyone ever has a 95% chance of victory is irrational, but to believe Marquardt w/ all of his flaws is worthy of such a high percentage over a very good fighter in Saffideine is just ludicrous to the nth degree.