My UFC on FX 7 Bets (and Others) - Post Yours! (Part II)

Part 1 of the thread is here: http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/my-ufc-fx-7-bets-others-post-yours-2344839/

Same drill as always. Post bets and discuss bets/matchups. Thread is always bumped afterwards.

I've got some early plays going. I'll probably only play around $100-$150. I'm not really liking this card too much overall.

Singles
Gonzaga: $12.50 to win $16.88
Khabib: $12.50 to win $7.35
Petruzelli: $12.50 to win $7.58
Freire: $7.50 to win $7.50
Payan: $7.50 to win $5.77
Dolloway: $5 to win $7.50
Saffiedine: $5 to win $12.50
Anthony Smith: $5 to win $12.50
Saff/Marquardt doesn't go 5: $5 to win $8.25
Chandler/Hawn: $5 to win $6
Kyle: $2.50 to win $8
Herman: $2.50 to win $7.50

Parlays
Klitschko + Cruz + Cleverly + Froch + Price + Bisping: $12.50 to win $20.97
Barnett + Noons: $12.50 to win $7.85
Healy + Kennedy + Cormier + Barnett: $10 to win $6.95
Colts (over Chiefs) + Hawn: $5 to win $13.07
Field over T. Clark (golf) + Caballero (box) + Hernandez (box) + Perez (box) + Cormier + Barnett + Healy + Kennedy + Not Belfort Dec: $5 to win $6.96
Barcelona/Malaga neither team 4 goals + Newton: $5 to win $6
Field over Stricker (golf) + Gavin (boxing) + Cormier + Gonzaga/Rothwell ITD + Not Belfort by Dec: $5 to win $5.51
Marquardt/Saff starts 2nd + Barnett ITD + Kyle/Mousasi ITD: $5 to win $5.04
Field over Kuchar (golf) + Gurgel: $2.50 to win $7.95
Zayats + Newton: $2.50 to win $8.69
Nunes + Baszler + Dolloway: $2.50 to win $12.35


TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2012: $29 into $2205.80 Total Profit = $2176.80 (Approximate ROI: 20.5%)

 

O, how do u choose which event goes into which parlay? and how do u choose how long to make your parlays.

some of them seem so random

 

Strike 1/12 Risk: 790
Saffiedine +240: 100 for 240 // Marquardt
Cormier-Staring: U1.5: 68 for 40
Barnett-Guelmino: U1.5: 72 for 40
Kyle +350: 100 for 350 // Mousasi
Jacare-Herman
Healy-Holobaugh
A. Smith +260: 100 for 260 // Gracie
Kennedy-Smith
Noons -175: 350 for 200 // Couture
Gurgel-Martins
Bravo-Payan

so far.

 

I'm not really sure what you are asking. Can you rephrase?

 

Do tell.

 

lol damn wasnt paying attention and accidentally bet 100 on lentz at even money, i was considering betting him as a dog but didnt want this lol ah well

 

My bets:

Strikeforce

7.5 on Noons to win 3.95
5 on A. Smith to win 13
5 on Gurgel to win 11.75
5 on Saffiedine to win 12
5 on Jacare to win 1.25
0.5 on Staring to win 6

UFC

10 on Dollaway to win 15.8
10 on Bisping to win 10.5
7.5 on Gonzaga to win 6

 

i'm not even sure anymore. disregard

 

I wasn't sure if you meant what event that I show them in or the thought process in making the longer parlays. Ever since the CigsandMath ordeal, I've been posting every bet that I make. I don't put them in the OP until the final event of the parlay, but any losses will be displayed and incurred on the event that has the loss. For example, I only have one play that involves futures on this event that I posted in Part I of this thread "Kennedy + Healy + Barnette + Cormier + Overeem + Rashad + Faber + Rousey + GSP: $5 to win $16.71". If any of those lose, I'll incur the loss on this event's total and add it to the OP. I thought about showing all futures and such in every thread OP, but it would be way too large. I currently have 34 bets pending.

If you are asking about the actual bets, a lot are just out of boredom or just to have action on things I watch. You'll see I rarely bet football besides the Colts since I'd watch them. I do watch golf events and often put a play on that for the action. I bet boxing squash matches a lot too. I figure I'll get burned sometime on that, but I haven't yet. So yes, a lot of it is pretty random on those longer $5 parlays.

 

Saffiedine is a square bet, he has no way to really win. I think that's kind of the pitfall of a lot of sharp betters, they see a fight potentially being pretty competitive and bet on the moderate underdog, but Saff doesn't have anything that Marquardt can outdo him in or completely neutralize.

 

Even money on Lentz/Nunes? What site is this on? I'll drop some $$$ on Diego at even.

 

I'm guessing you are the same James on SBR that said Marquardt is a lock and you are giving him a 95% chance?

 

Bingo

 

I don't really have any issue with your logic on the stylistic matchup (although I don't necessarily agree), but I do think you are way off on your %.

 

his 95% is waaaaay off.

95 % means if you get marquardt at -900, it's a good bet. if you truly believe 95%, you're *crazy* not to bet a crapload on -300.

people don't know what they're saying when they rattle off %'s though. especially those who don't bet.

 

My biggest bet yet is on Marquardt. If Tarec finds a miracle to win, he crushes me completely.

 

well, your money is where your mouth is. fair enough

 

i don't see how you can say 95%, i just don't. marq is mainly a finisher, and tarec's never been finished. tarec has crisper standup than nate. tarec isn't terrible anywhere. marquardt has bad standup D quite often. nate also has fought with sub par gameplans a couple times.

95 % is just off

 

95% = -2000.

-300 = zomg value ( 26% Expected ROI with your probability estimate ). According to kelly you should almost bet 80% of your bankroll to maximize EV.

You're either exaggerating, clueless OR you are an extremely confident bettor ( like most sherdoggers but they never put their money where their mouth is so who cares about them )

Edit: Most likely -> confident & delusional