My UFC on FX 7 Bets (and Others) - Post Yours! (Part II)

[Oblivian]

Part 1 of the thread is here: http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/my-ufc-fx-7-bets-others-post-yours-2344839/

Same drill as always. Post bets and discuss bets/matchups. Thread is always bumped afterwards.

I've got some early plays going. I'll probably only play around $100-$150. I'm not really liking this card too much overall.

Singles
Gonzaga: $12.50 to win $16.88
Khabib: $12.50 to win $7.35
Petruzelli: $12.50 to win $7.58
Freire: $7.50 to win $7.50
Payan: $7.50 to win $5.77
Dolloway: $5 to win $7.50
Saffiedine: $5 to win $12.50
Anthony Smith: $5 to win $12.50
Saff/Marquardt doesn't go 5: $5 to win $8.25
Chandler/Hawn: $5 to win $6
Kyle: $2.50 to win $8
Herman: $2.50 to win $7.50

Parlays
Klitschko + Cruz + Cleverly + Froch + Price + Bisping: $12.50 to win $20.97
Barnett + Noons: $12.50 to win $7.85
Healy + Kennedy + Cormier + Barnett: $10 to win $6.95
Colts (over Chiefs) + Hawn: $5 to win $13.07
Field over T. Clark (golf) + Caballero (box) + Hernandez (box) + Perez (box) + Cormier + Barnett + Healy + Kennedy + Not Belfort Dec: $5 to win $6.96
Barcelona/Malaga neither team 4 goals + Newton: $5 to win $6
Field over Stricker (golf) + Gavin (boxing) + Cormier + Gonzaga/Rothwell ITD + Not Belfort by Dec: $5 to win $5.51
Marquardt/Saff starts 2nd + Barnett ITD + Kyle/Mousasi ITD: $5 to win $5.04
Field over Kuchar (golf) + Gurgel: $2.50 to win $7.95
Zayats + Newton: $2.50 to win $8.69
Nunes + Baszler + Dolloway: $2.50 to win $12.35


TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2012: $29 into $2205.80 Total Profit = $2176.80 (Approximate ROI: 20.5%)

 

[electricute]

O, how do u choose which event goes into which parlay? and how do u choose how long to make your parlays.

some of them seem so random

 

[phoenixikki]

O, how do u choose which event goes into which parlay? and how do u choose how long to make your parlays.

some of them seem so random

 

[EzFlyer]

Strike 1/12 Risk: 790
Saffiedine +240: 100 for 240 // Marquardt
Cormier-Staring: U1.5: 68 for 40
Barnett-Guelmino: U1.5: 72 for 40
Kyle +350: 100 for 350 // Mousasi
Jacare-Herman
Healy-Holobaugh
A. Smith +260: 100 for 260 // Gracie
Kennedy-Smith
Noons -175: 350 for 200 // Couture
Gurgel-Martins
Bravo-Payan

so far.

 

[Oblivian]

O, how do u choose which event goes into which parlay? and how do u choose how long to make your parlays.

some of them seem so random

I'm not really sure what you are asking. Can you rephrase?

 

[Oblivian]

Do tell.

 

[cs10]

lol damn wasnt paying attention and accidentally bet 100 on lentz at even money, i was considering betting him as a dog but didnt want this lol ah well

 

[Kaffe]

My bets:

Strikeforce

7.5 on Noons to win 3.95
5 on A. Smith to win 13
5 on Gurgel to win 11.75
5 on Saffiedine to win 12
5 on Jacare to win 1.25
0.5 on Staring to win 6

UFC

10 on Dollaway to win 15.8
10 on Bisping to win 10.5
7.5 on Gonzaga to win 6

 

[electricute]

I'm not really sure what you are asking. Can you rephrase?

i'm not even sure anymore. disregard

 

[Oblivian]

i'm not even sure anymore. disregard

I wasn't sure if you meant what event that I show them in or the thought process in making the longer parlays. Ever since the CigsandMath ordeal, I've been posting every bet that I make. I don't put them in the OP until the final event of the parlay, but any losses will be displayed and incurred on the event that has the loss. For example, I only have one play that involves futures on this event that I posted in Part I of this thread "Kennedy + Healy + Barnette + Cormier + Overeem + Rashad + Faber + Rousey + GSP: $5 to win $16.71". If any of those lose, I'll incur the loss on this event's total and add it to the OP. I thought about showing all futures and such in every thread OP, but it would be way too large. I currently have 34 bets pending.

If you are asking about the actual bets, a lot are just out of boredom or just to have action on things I watch. You'll see I rarely bet football besides the Colts since I'd watch them. I do watch golf events and often put a play on that for the action. I bet boxing squash matches a lot too. I figure I'll get burned sometime on that, but I haven't yet. So yes, a lot of it is pretty random on those longer $5 parlays.

 

[IamJames]

Saffiedine is a square bet, he has no way to really win. I think that's kind of the pitfall of a lot of sharp betters, they see a fight potentially being pretty competitive and bet on the moderate underdog, but Saff doesn't have anything that Marquardt can outdo him in or completely neutralize.

 

[arrelione]

lol damn wasnt paying attention and accidentally bet 100 on lentz at even money, i was considering betting him as a dog but didnt want this lol ah well

Even money on Lentz/Nunes? What site is this on? I'll drop some $$$ on Diego at even.

 

[Oblivian]

Saffiedine is a square bet, he has no way to really win. I think that's kind of the pitfall of a lot of sharp betters, they see a fight potentially being pretty competitive and bet on the moderate underdog, but Saff doesn't have anything that Marquardt can outdo him in or completely neutralize.

I'm guessing you are the same James on SBR that said Marquardt is a lock and you are giving him a 95% chance?

 

[IamJames]

I'm guessing you are the same James on SBR that said Marquardt is a lock and you are giving him a 95% chance?

Bingo

 

[Oblivian]

I don't really have any issue with your logic on the stylistic matchup (although I don't necessarily agree), but I do think you are way off on your %.

 

[EzFlyer]

his 95% is waaaaay off.

95 % means if you get marquardt at -900, it's a good bet. if you truly believe 95%, you're *crazy* not to bet a crapload on -300.

people don't know what they're saying when they rattle off %'s though. especially those who don't bet.

 

[IamJames]

his 95% is waaaaay off.

95 % means if you get marquardt at -900, it's a good bet. if you truly believe 95%, you're *crazy* not to bet a crapload on -300.

people don't know what they're saying when they rattle off %'s though. especially those who don't bet.

My biggest bet yet is on Marquardt. If Tarec finds a miracle to win, he crushes me completely.

 

[EzFlyer]

well, your money is where your mouth is. fair enough

 

[EzFlyer]

i don't see how you can say 95%, i just don't. marq is mainly a finisher, and tarec's never been finished. tarec has crisper standup than nate. tarec isn't terrible anywhere. marquardt has bad standup D quite often. nate also has fought with sub par gameplans a couple times.

95 % is just off

 

[UAK]

My biggest bet yet is on Marquardt. If Tarec finds a miracle to win, he crushes me completely.

95% = -2000.

-300 = zomg value ( 26% Expected ROI with your probability estimate ). According to kelly you should almost bet 80% of your bankroll to maximize EV.

You're either exaggerating, clueless OR you are an extremely confident bettor ( like most sherdoggers but they never put their money where their mouth is so who cares about them )

Edit: Most likely -> confident & delusional