My UFC on FX 7 Bets (and Others) - Post Yours! (Part II)

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jan 11, 2013.

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  1. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Part 1 of the thread is here: http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/my-ufc-fx-7-bets-others-post-yours-2344839/

    Same drill as always. Post bets and discuss bets/matchups. Thread is always bumped afterwards.

    I've got some early plays going. I'll probably only play around $100-$150. I'm not really liking this card too much overall.

    Singles
    Gonzaga: $12.50 to win $16.88
    Khabib: $12.50 to win $7.35
    Petruzelli: $12.50 to win $7.58
    Freire: $7.50 to win $7.50
    Payan: $7.50 to win $5.77
    Dolloway: $5 to win $7.50
    Saffiedine: $5 to win $12.50
    Anthony Smith: $5 to win $12.50
    Saff/Marquardt doesn't go 5: $5 to win $8.25
    Chandler/Hawn: $5 to win $6
    Kyle: $2.50 to win $8
    Herman: $2.50 to win $7.50

    Parlays
    Klitschko + Cruz + Cleverly + Froch + Price + Bisping: $12.50 to win $20.97
    Barnett + Noons: $12.50 to win $7.85
    Healy + Kennedy + Cormier + Barnett: $10 to win $6.95
    Colts (over Chiefs) + Hawn: $5 to win $13.07
    Field over T. Clark (golf) + Caballero (box) + Hernandez (box) + Perez (box) + Cormier + Barnett + Healy + Kennedy + Not Belfort Dec: $5 to win $6.96
    Barcelona/Malaga neither team 4 goals + Newton: $5 to win $6
    Field over Stricker (golf) + Gavin (boxing) + Cormier + Gonzaga/Rothwell ITD + Not Belfort by Dec: $5 to win $5.51
    Marquardt/Saff starts 2nd + Barnett ITD + Kyle/Mousasi ITD: $5 to win $5.04
    Field over Kuchar (golf) + Gurgel: $2.50 to win $7.95
    Zayats + Newton: $2.50 to win $8.69
    Nunes + Baszler + Dolloway: $2.50 to win $12.35


    TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
    TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
    TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
    GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2012: $29 into $2205.80 Total Profit = $2176.80 (Approximate ROI: 20.5%)
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2013
  2. electricute

    electricute Purple Belt

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    O, how do u choose which event goes into which parlay? and how do u choose how long to make your parlays.

    some of them seem so random
     
  3. phoenixikki

    phoenixikki Black Belt

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    [​IMG]
     
  4. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Strike 1/12 Risk: 790
    Saffiedine +240: 100 for 240 // Marquardt
    Cormier-Staring: U1.5: 68 for 40
    Barnett-Guelmino: U1.5: 72 for 40
    Kyle +350: 100 for 350 // Mousasi
    Jacare-Herman
    Healy-Holobaugh
    A. Smith +260: 100 for 260 // Gracie
    Kennedy-Smith
    Noons -175: 350 for 200 // Couture
    Gurgel-Martins
    Bravo-Payan

    so far.
     
  5. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I'm not really sure what you are asking. Can you rephrase?
     
  6. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Do tell.
     
  7. cs10

    cs10 Blue Belt

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    lol damn wasnt paying attention and accidentally bet 100 on lentz at even money, i was considering betting him as a dog but didnt want this lol ah well
     
  8. Kaffe

    Kaffe Brown Belt

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    My bets:

    Strikeforce

    7.5 on Noons to win 3.95
    5 on A. Smith to win 13
    5 on Gurgel to win 11.75
    5 on Saffiedine to win 12
    5 on Jacare to win 1.25
    0.5 on Staring to win 6

    UFC

    10 on Dollaway to win 15.8
    10 on Bisping to win 10.5
    7.5 on Gonzaga to win 6
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2013
  9. electricute

    electricute Purple Belt

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    i'm not even sure anymore. disregard
     
  10. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I wasn't sure if you meant what event that I show them in or the thought process in making the longer parlays. Ever since the CigsandMath ordeal, I've been posting every bet that I make. I don't put them in the OP until the final event of the parlay, but any losses will be displayed and incurred on the event that has the loss. For example, I only have one play that involves futures on this event that I posted in Part I of this thread "Kennedy + Healy + Barnette + Cormier + Overeem + Rashad + Faber + Rousey + GSP: $5 to win $16.71". If any of those lose, I'll incur the loss on this event's total and add it to the OP. I thought about showing all futures and such in every thread OP, but it would be way too large. I currently have 34 bets pending.

    If you are asking about the actual bets, a lot are just out of boredom or just to have action on things I watch. You'll see I rarely bet football besides the Colts since I'd watch them. I do watch golf events and often put a play on that for the action. I bet boxing squash matches a lot too. I figure I'll get burned sometime on that, but I haven't yet. So yes, a lot of it is pretty random on those longer $5 parlays.
     
  11. IamJames

    IamJames Orange Belt

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    Saffiedine is a square bet, he has no way to really win. I think that's kind of the pitfall of a lot of sharp betters, they see a fight potentially being pretty competitive and bet on the moderate underdog, but Saff doesn't have anything that Marquardt can outdo him in or completely neutralize.
     
  12. arrelione

    arrelione Red Belt

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    Even money on Lentz/Nunes? What site is this on? I'll drop some $$$ on Diego at even.
     
  13. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I'm guessing you are the same James on SBR that said Marquardt is a lock and you are giving him a 95% chance?
     
  14. IamJames

    IamJames Orange Belt

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    Bingo
     
  15. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I don't really have any issue with your logic on the stylistic matchup (although I don't necessarily agree), but I do think you are way off on your %.
     
  16. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    his 95% is waaaaay off.

    95 % means if you get marquardt at -900, it's a good bet. if you truly believe 95%, you're *crazy* not to bet a crapload on -300.

    people don't know what they're saying when they rattle off %'s though. especially those who don't bet.
     
  17. IamJames

    IamJames Orange Belt

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    My biggest bet yet is on Marquardt. If Tarec finds a miracle to win, he crushes me completely.
     
  18. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    well, your money is where your mouth is. fair enough
     
  19. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i don't see how you can say 95%, i just don't. marq is mainly a finisher, and tarec's never been finished. tarec has crisper standup than nate. tarec isn't terrible anywhere. marquardt has bad standup D quite often. nate also has fought with sub par gameplans a couple times.

    95 % is just off
     
  20. UAK

    UAK Purple Belt

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    95% = -2000.

    -300 = zomg value ( 26% Expected ROI with your probability estimate ). According to kelly you should almost bet 80% of your bankroll to maximize EV.

    You're either exaggerating, clueless OR you are an extremely confident bettor ( like most sherdoggers but they never put their money where their mouth is so who cares about them )

    Edit: Most likely -> confident & delusional
     
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