My UFC on Fuel 9 Bets (and others) - Post Yours! (Part II)

[Oblivian]

Part I: http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/my-ufc-fuel-9-bets-others-post-yours-2422057/index35.html

Same drill as always. Post bets and discuss bets. This thread will encompass a bit more than UFC on Fuel 9 w/ Bellator and WSOF.

I'm not sure how much I'll end up having down altogether. My guess is around $150-$200, but I need to make sure I play Bellator small as I have not been doing well with it.

I'm going to keep an ongoing tally since there are multiple events. Green is win + risk.

Singles
Anthony Johnson: $7.50 to win $6 $13.50
Branch/Filho over 2.5: $7.50 to win $5.17 $12.67
Burkman: $5 to win $11 $16
Cella: $5 to win $9
Gustaffson/Mousasi goes distance: $5 to win $8.75 $5 (Push)
Ryan Martinez: $5 to win $8.25 $13.25
Brimmage: $5 to win $8
Nam: $5 to win $6.75 Loss
Easton: $5 to win $6.25
Alloway: $5 to win $6
JZ Cavalcante: $5 to win $5.50 Loss
Couture: $2.50 to win $7
Banks: $2.50 to win $5.63 Loss
Kimball: $2.50 to win $6.25 $8.75
Karo: $2.50 to win $8.75

Parlays
Brandao + Abedi: $7.50 to win $11.10
Peralta + Amagov: $7.50 to win $7.56
Curran + Frodo: $5 to win $6.87
Brandao + Frodo/Richman under 2.5: $5 to win $6.87
Field over Luke Donald (Tampa) + Gus + Mitrione: $5 to win $2.18 (adjusted)
Gus + Branch: $5 to win $2.70 (adjusted) $7.70
Rickels + Newton: $5 to win $7.26 $12.26
Mann + Melo: $5 to win $6.85 Loss
Rogers + Gus: $5 to win $1.96 (adjusted) $5 (Push)
Davis + Easton/Pickett goes 3: $5 to win $1.92 (adjusted)
Field over Tiger (Palmer Inv) + Jansen: $5 to win $5.45 Loss
Lawlor + Michael Johnson: $5 to win $6.06
Brandao + Gus: $5 to win $2.38 (adjusted)
Field over Tiger (Palmer Inv) + Gus + Lowe: $5 to win $7.04 Loss
Agbeko + Helenius + Golovkin + Lowe + De/Fries Mitrione ITD: $5 to win $4.97
Jansen + JZ/Gaethje under 2.5: $2.50 to win $8.06 $10.56
Field over Tiger (Palmer Inv) + Davis/Spirit over 2.5 + Abraham + Agbeko + Golovkin: $2.50 to win $1.75 (adjusted) Loss
Jansen + Lowe: $2.50 to win $4.09 $6.59
Thatch + Bektik + Lopez + Mainus: $2.50 to win $4.99 Loss
Newton + Golvkin + Rabchenko + Gus: $2.50 to win $2.65 (adjusted) $5.15
Curran + Abedi + Peralta: $2.50 to win $8.04

TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $359.60. Running Profit = $127.10 (Approximate ROI for year: 11%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2013: $29 into $2313.37 Total Profit = $2303.90 (Approximate ROI: 19.8%)

 

[AldoByMurder]

I love your insight into MMA and respect you hugely as a gambler, but fading Tiger that heavily? Come on man, that's asking to be burnt.

 

[Oblivian]

I'll take the field over Tiger at -350 on any event. I'd say his lines are off on almost every event due to his popularity. He's on a hot streak now, but I'm definitely ahead fading him.

 

[Wanna Bet]

Fade The Lakers follow-up

Spoiler

Magic number achieved: Field wins the pacific division over the Lakers. 5Dimes were kind enough to pay out the bet before the pacific division was clinched by the LAC over the GSW. Kudos to them.

Sorry Rebel_LioN & other Lakers fans for the schadenfreude during the regular season... Best of luck to the Lakers in the playoffs though. Hope Kobe gets back to 100% and makes it interesting but it's an uphill battle locking up that 8th seed and then facing a rock solid team like the Spurs.

 

[zomb]

this is not mine, but a poker friend of mine

pretty sick

 

[EzFlyer]

nhl

Spoiler

home teams look pretty awesome today as a whole... will post bets in a bit. i might get a little frisky tonight tho and go for a big round robin or somethin on a lot of home teams

 

[zomb]

i hope you don't suck, EzFlyer

$1,800 to win $3,100 on the home teams today
round robin parlays with 2 teams per parlay and $50 per parlay

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Damn, WB and Zomb's friend have some sexy ass tickets right there. Congrats.

 

[King Boo]

Anyone have the lines for Thursday's Bellator?

Any insight would be appreciated too!

 

[Thunderflash500]

It's cool seeing how successful you've been. I remember threads where everyone said you stupid for not making one large bet, because one bet is less risk lol. Surprised you don't feel the temptation to bet more!

I'm just practicing with Vcash, which I know is very different then the real thing for a variety of reasons, but it's damn fun and makes the UFC more interesting to watch.

My style of betting has definitely been influenced by your style of spreading the risk.

Betting big on a fight you think is guaranteed is a good way to end up on vwelfare.

 

[Card]

 

[ufcbetter604]

fade the lakers follow-up

Spoiler

magic number achieved: Field wins the pacific division over the lakers. 5dimes were kind enough to pay out the bet before the pacific division was clinched by the lac over the gsw. Kudos to them.

Sorry rebel_lion & other lakers fans for the schadenfreude during the regular season... Best of luck to the lakers in the playoffs though. Hope kobe gets back to 100% and makes it interesting but it's an uphill battle locking up that 8th seed and then facing a rock solid team like the spurs.

nice f'in bet! C

 

[ufcbetter604]

GF Hopefully your on soon, I have to actually have to do work 2day booorrrrreeeefest. What do you think of Knicks/Bos and Clips/Dallas for tonight?

 

[Card]

TUF Brazil season 2 Episode 1 has subtitles now - http://en.tuf.tv/media/tuf-brasil-ep-1

 

[EzFlyer]

rickels too steep for me

2u zayats +160

 

[EzFlyer]

i hope you don't suck, EzFlyer

$1,800 to win $3,100 on the home teams today
round robin parlays with 2 teams per parlay and $50 per parlay

i can't really look too deeply into today's games or make my plays just yet. hopefully can before they start. first look still holding true tho, but anxious to hear the other hockey bettors' opinions.

 

[Roger FedorAIR]

Fade The Lakers follow-up

Spoiler

Magic number achieved: Field wins the pacific division over the Lakers. 5Dimes were kind enough to pay out the bet before the pacific division was clinched by the LAC over the GSW. Kudos to them.

Sorry Rebel_LioN & other Lakers fans for the schadenfreude during the regular season... Best of luck to the Lakers in the playoffs though. Hope Kobe gets back to 100% and makes it interesting but it's an uphill battle locking up that 8th seed and then facing a rock solid team like the Spurs.

Damn, WB. I can't even begin to describe how green my jelly is, right now. Not just because you made so much bank, but because I'm one of the asshats that laid money on LA to win it all, after they pulled off the Dwight trade.

I didn't bet it huge, but at the time, I still thought Dwight was one of the best rim protectors and help defenders, in the NBA, and never imagined he'd all of a sudden turn into one of the slowest, and least inspiring players in the NBA. Hell, he's just BARELY getting over the rim with some of his dunks, these days. WTF happened to the guy?? Not to mention that Nash's playmaking ability is pretty much useless playing alongside Kobe, and Pau might as well not even check into the game. That team is probably the biggest waste of talent I've ever seen...

this is not mine, but a poker friend of mine

pretty sick

Jesus, that would have to be the biggest set of MMA parlays that I've ever seen!

UFC 139 was just one of those awesome events for betting dogs, though. I raked a $800 parlay off of a $20 bet on Bonnar/Kampmann/Wand/Hendo, iirc...

 

[Oblivian]

I'm on all favs for Bellator.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I actually like both Newton and Rickels at those prices. Well I don't like them but I don't dislike them if that makes sense. Have no idea how the lines will move though so I'm not sure if I should wait or not.

 

[Dathorn]

2U Zayats +120