Michael Chandler vs. Justin Gaethje - Who wins?

Who wins?


  • Total voters
    328
If the Gathje who fought Tony shows up Chandler is in for a tough fight. Chandlers style might cause Justin to get sloppy. 55/45 Gathje for me, should be a great fight.
 
If the Gathje who fought Tony shows up Chandler is in for a tough fight. Chandlers style might cause Justin to get sloppy. 55/45 Gathje for me, should be a great fight.


In retrospect, perhaps too much was attributed to JG's performance without the understanding how far Tony had slipped. Ferguson has now been absolutely dominated in his last two performances. He was competitive for 3 rounds with JG, dropping him at the end of the first.

I think this fight is a pickem, both guys have KO power and high level experience.

- KO power: even
- Athleticism: Chandler
- Durability: Justin
- Grappling: Chandler

We saw JG get knocked out by Alvarez and Dustin because he lacks basic fight IQ at times, but he may be around that corner. His chin is very solid but it doesn't matter as much if you are catching sledgehammers. Still, JG should get the durability advantage. Chandler is an excellent MMA grappler and JG flat out SUCKS on the mat. Chandler should have more ways to win.
 
In retrospect, perhaps too much was attributed to JG's performance without the understanding how far Tony had slipped. Ferguson has now been absolutely dominated in his last two performances. He was competitive for 3 rounds with JG, dropping him at the end of the first.

I think this fight is a pickem, both guys have KO power and high level experience.

- KO power: even
- Athleticism: Chandler
- Durability: Justin
- Grappling: Chandler

We saw JG get knocked out by Alvarez and Dustin because he lacks basic fight IQ at times, but he may be around that corner. His chin is very solid but it doesn't matter as much if you are catching sledgehammers. Still, JG should get the durability advantage. Chandler is an excellent MMA grappler and JG flat out SUCKS on the mat. Chandler should have more ways to win.

I think leg kicks should be the fifth category and Gaethje has a huge edge there. I think Chandler has 2 paths to win--an early KO (tough with Justin's chin) or wrestling leading to a submission or a decision. While Gaethje looks pretty bad off his back, his TDD and scrambling look pretty solid. Khabib is the only guy to really manhandle him on the ground....and there's only one Khabib. Plus Chandler enjoys brawling and sometimes brawls when he should wrestle. I still think it's a tough fight to call, but I say Gaethje with 60/40 or maybe even 70/30 odds.
 
Gaethje will get his chin knocked into the stands
 
In retrospect, perhaps too much was attributed to JG's performance without the understanding how far Tony had slipped. Ferguson has now been absolutely dominated in his last two performances. He was competitive for 3 rounds with JG, dropping him at the end of the first.

I think this fight is a pickem, both guys have KO power and high level experience.

- KO power: even
- Athleticism: Chandler
- Durability: Justin
- Grappling: Chandler

We saw JG get knocked out by Alvarez and Dustin because he lacks basic fight IQ at times, but he may be around that corner. His chin is very solid but it doesn't matter as much if you are catching sledgehammers. Still, JG should get the durability advantage. Chandler is an excellent MMA grappler and JG flat out SUCKS on the mat. Chandler should have more ways to win.

Regardless of which version of Tony he fought it had nothing to do with his improved patience, footwork and methodical destruction of his opponent. Pre-Tony Gathje never fought like that even against cans in WSOF.
 
I think leg kicks should be the fifth category and Gaethje has a huge edge there. I think Chandler has 2 paths to win--an early KO (tough with Justin's chin) or wrestling leading to a submission or a decision. While Gaethje looks pretty bad off his back, his TDD and scrambling look pretty solid. Khabib is the only guy to really manhandle him on the ground....and there's only one Khabib. Plus Chandler enjoys brawling and sometimes brawls when he should wrestle. I still think it's a tough fight to call, but I say Gaethje with 60/40 or maybe even 70/30 odds.


JG has great leg kicks but when he was fighting with that style, it was the YOLO take yours to land mine. He was never slick with it, just full ham frontal assault. Maybe things have changed, but we haven't gotten a chance to see yet.

Otherwise pretty solid assessment. Lets put getting smashed by Khabib aside, because it should be in its own category. Prior to that fight, the two best guys JG fought in the UFC were Alvarez and Poirer. They both knocked him out in dogfights.
 
Regardless of which version of Tony he fought it had nothing to do with his improved patience, footwork and methodical destruction of his opponent. Pre-Tony Gathje never fought like that even against cans in WSOF.


In retrospect, I really don't know how much of that is true. He brawled in the first round then straight up got dropped like a sack of potatoes. Ferguson looked old in the fight with JG, and completely past it in his next two. Since we've only seen JG get smashed by Khabib since then, its hard really to say if he has a miraculous fight IQ turnaround.

Forget WSOF, we watched JG get knocked out by Poirer and Alvarez because he doesn't consistently have high fight IQ.
 
JG has great leg kicks but when he was fighting with that style, it was the YOLO take yours to land mine. He was never slick with it, just full ham frontal assault. Maybe things have changed, but we haven't gotten a chance to see yet.

Otherwise pretty solid assessment. Lets put getting smashed by Khabib aside, because it should be in its own category. Prior to that fight, the two best guys JG fought in the UFC were Alvarez and Poirer. They both knocked him out in dogfights.

No arguments on Alvarez and Poirier. But even before Ferguson, Gaethje seemed to be implementing a more technical style (yes, it was hard to see much of it when he had fast KOs over Vick/Barboza/Cerrone). And while I think Ferguson was in a slow decline even in his last few wins (similar to an aging Chuck Liddell), it's hard to say how much he'd fallen by the Gaethje fight. Was he that much worse or did that fight "take his soul"? Either way, I think we saw a better, more patient and more technical Gaethje who with 5-round cardio. I think the younger version of Tony who beat RDA would beat the wild Gaethje who lost to Eddie an Dustin. Gaethje would probably win the first two rounds but Tony would eventually take him into deep waters. A truly prime Ferguson vs. prime Gaethje? That's hard to call.
 
Yes because beating guys that recently took an loss on their record or have losing streaks is totally worthy of a ts in the ufc, since it's being the new norm, ufc is just thankful majority of their fans are mindless apes and they can get away with this crap on the regular and they don't care about being credible cause they are shady as it gets anyways.

The longest sentence ever.

Held my breath the whole read.

I love them both, it's a toss up, imo. I'm leaning Gaethje though.

It's definitely a Just Bleed fight.
 
Khabib had a tough time taking Gaethje down. Khabib got hit with a lot of leg kicks and powerful punches. Those strikes would likely KO other grapplers like Chandler and Oliveria.

Gaethje's TDD is pretty good as are his scrambles, but I agree his sub defense sucks. Hopefully he has improved that in this past year.

This.

Khabib has even said Justin hit him the hardest out of anyone he's ever fought.
 
Chandler is no doubt high level and could win, but I think the styles here really favor Gaethje. Outside of Khabib, Gaethje stumbled in the past when he got into firefights with guys who could also hit hard but were far more defensively sound. But to me, Chandler always comes in with plan A is to defeat you early with a blitzkrieg, and if that’s doesn’t work he will try to wrestlefuck you while he gulps air.

I think Gaethje’s chin provides decent security against plan A and his wrestling fundamentals security against plan B. Especially because Chandler is doing one or the other.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mkt
No arguments on Alvarez and Poirier. But even before Ferguson, Gaethje seemed to be implementing a more technical style (yes, it was hard to see much of it when he had fast KOs over Vick/Barboza/Cerrone). And while I think Ferguson was in a slow decline even in his last few wins (similar to an aging Chuck Liddell), it's hard to say how much he'd fallen by the Gaethje fight. Was he that much worse or did that fight "take his soul"? Either way, I think we saw a better, more patient and more technical Gaethje who with 5-round cardio. I think the younger version of Tony who beat RDA would beat the wild Gaethje who lost to Eddie an Dustin. Gaethje would probably win the first two rounds but Tony would eventually take him into deep waters. A truly prime Ferguson vs. prime Gaethje? That's hard to call.


In MMA, when it goes it goes fast. Look at BJ Penn fighting Edgar the first fight, then fast forward to the rematch. Usually these guys fall off a cliff when they are coming down from the top.

Tony finally looked his age, and he was competitive with JG for the first 3 rounds. He even dropped him in the first. In his subsequent two fights, he was literally never in the fight, not for a minute. He was completely dominated.

Suffice to say I'd like to see how JG looks in his next fight to see if he's really improved in a meaningful way since he fought guys the caliber of Poirer and Alvarez.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mkt
Gaethje should win by finish in the 3rd round imo. Chandler will be dangerous for the first round though with huge power and explosiveness
 
Chandler via sub round 1 2 minutes into the fight. Gets the takedown within 20 seconds, starts pounding Gaethje out, Gaethje gives up his back and gets RNC'd.
 
Not to be a dick but if you can take JG down, the fights over right? Chandler can wrestle and has some subs on his record. Khabib clearly highlighted the path to victory. Justin, seemingly, has zero submission defense.
Justin was so lost against Khabibs TD and mount.
 
In MMA, when it goes it goes fast. Look at BJ Penn fighting Edgar the first fight, then fast forward to the rematch. Usually these guys fall off a cliff when they are coming down from the top.

Tony finally looked his age, and he was competitive with JG for the first 3 rounds. He even dropped him in the first. In his subsequent two fights, he was literally never in the fight, not for a minute. He was completely dominated.

Suffice to say I'd like to see how JG looks in his next fight to see if he's really improved in a meaningful way since he fought guys the caliber of Poirer and Alvarez.
Keep in mind Chandler is 35 and could go the Ferguson route at any time. Gaethje is 32 and taken his share of damage as well, but of the two, Chandler is more likely IMO to suddenly "look old." That's another reason I give the edge to Justin.
 
Back
Top