Meltzer 189/190 numbers (so far) & 189 adjusted lower

The real question I have is whether Meltzer's numbers fall in line with what Jeremy Botter's sources are telling him.

For those who missed it, Jeremy Botter says his sources told him that UFC 190 not only beat UFC 189, but clocked in over 1M+ buys and could actually be significantly higher.

Starts at 33:00

http://mmajunkie.com/2015/08/stream...-radio-2014-with-andrew-sanchez-jeremy-botter

If Conor clocked in at 800k-850k and Rousey clocks in over 1M+ given it was in Rio, without a world tour, and standard levels of promotions that goes past amazing and into mind-boggling territory.

As I said in another thread.
Meltzer said that he hates giving early numbers because people misquote him all the time. It happened Tuesday with Luke Thomas reporting his info wrong.
He said in his last audio that it can go that high, but there is not enough numbers in yet to say for sure.
 
In a few months, when I bring up the flaws in Meltzer's figures, certain individuals will claim the number going around wasn't a million, just like it wasn't 800K for Rousey-Zingano, etc.

You are so dopey
Meltzer never said 1m for 189 (he said maybe 950k) & he NEVER said anything close to 800k for 184 ... about 5 people told you that in the thread from last week

Just stop posting foolishly lol
 
Well conor has a change of opponent and aldo pulling out killed the fight for me.

That being said how the hell u do 300k buy rate with mcmann,and 1m +with bethe i have no idea .

Guess people just buying into the ronda effect right now

I'm thinking it's a snowball thing. Rousey's fights have combined with her schedule and event releases almost perfectly.

16s Davis win (huge splash)
14s Zingano win in LA, fastest time ever (even bigger splash)

Wrestlemania 31 appearance
Multiple city book and media tour and NYT best seller list
Fast and Furious 7 release (1Bn box office)
Entourage move release (poor box office but lots of media coverage)

In other words, Rousey has managed to get people's attention in the media with her wins, then timed it perfectly with her book tour, WM appearance and movie launches in order to maximize her ability to stay in the public eye.

Now toss in the trash talk leading up to UFC 190 and her appearances on mainstream media outlets to promote the fight and you have the recipe for a juggernaut.

Rousey is basically running a perfect self-promotion campaign combined with attention grabbing fight results.

Rousey and her team at WME could teach a clinic to the rest of the UFC roster on how to self-promote.
 
McGregor also had another title fight on his card with Lawler vs Rory. Chad mendes is more legit than Betty Correia. Ronda had 2 TUF fights on her card and her co-main was with two past their prime fighters. It's quite clear Ronda is a bigger draw than McGregor.
 
Conor & Ronda in Dallas = capacity reached, I promise
 
I'm thinking it's a snowball thing. Rousey's fights have combined with her schedule and event releases almost perfectly.

16s Davis win (huge splash)
14s Zingano win in LA, fastest time ever (even bigger splash)

Multiple city book and media tour and NYT best seller list
Fast and Furious 7 release (1Bn box office)
Entourage move release (poor box office but lots of media coverage)

In other words, Rousey has managed to get people's attention in the media with her wins, then timed it perfectly with her book tour and movie launches in order to maximize her ability to stay in the public eye.

Now toss in the trash talk leading up to UFC 190 and her appearances on mainstream media outlets to promote the fight and you have the recipe for a juggernaut.

Rousey is basically running a perfect self-promotion campaign combined with attention grabbing fight results.

Rousey and her team at WME could teach a clinic to the rest of the UFC roster on how to self-promote.

Ronda is by far a bigger mainstream personality than Conor.
No knock on Conor, what he has done in the last year to become a star is amazing.
 
Conor & Ronda in Dallas = capacity reached, I promise

I'm wondering is they move her (if she was going to be on) off the card now & put her & Tate in January instead.
There are pro & cons to both
 
I'm wondering is they move her (if she was going to be on) off the card now & put her & Tate in January instead.
There are pro & cons to both

I guess it depends whether they want to go for splash (Texas) or guaranteed money (separate cards).

They make the most guaranteed money keeping them separate as they both get PPV cuts and even at huge numbers it won't perfectly synergize. 800+1M /= 1.8M PPV buys. It could end up higher or lower so there's some risk involved depending on the level of fan overlap.

However, as an event it's perfectly conceivable that Conor + Rousey could top the 1.6M record and even close on 2M if it reaches true "must watch" event status ala Mayweather-Pacquio.

That and a huge PPV event would raise the profile of the UFC considerably so I can see them seriously considering a joint event.

It's a very tough call.
 
I guess it depends whether they want to go for splash (Texas) or guaranteed money (separate cards).

They make the most guaranteed money keeping them separate as they both get PPV cuts and even at huge numbers it won't perfectly synergize. 800+1M /= 1.8M PPV buys. It could end up higher or lower so there's some risk involved depending on the level of fan overlap.

However, as an event it's perfectly conceivable that Conor + Rousey could top the 1.6M record and even close on 2M if it reaches true "must watch" event status ala Mayweather-Pacquio.

That and a huge PPV event would raise the profile of the UFC considerably so I can see them seriously considering a joint event.

It's a very tough call.

Obviously I agree
I think it might come down to who else could be under Aldo/Conor
If they put Fedor & Punk as 2 fights, they might hold off Ronda/Tate.
If the undercard is just a normal looking card, then Texas Stadium withour RR/Tate is a bad idea.

The winner in all this is Tate ... she will make bank & get a shitload of publicity for this & she is already popular - good for her!
 
I told everybody UFC 189 would do around 750k-800k. These numbers are good, but they also put a ton behind this card if Mcgregor did not beat Chad it would have been a disaster and a money lost.

There was no way 189 was doing a million with or without Jose Aldo do not drink the Zuffa koolaid. Maybe next the next scheduled bout between them depending on who else is on the card but not this time.
 
EXACT WORDING FROM HIS NEWSLETTER:



Surprised the 189 numbers took a downturn (still good though considering Aldo dropped out)

More info HERE

If he originally said "could do over 800k" then how is 800-850k a downturn?

Didn't he just repeat what he said the first time?
 
If he originally said "could do over 800k" then how is 800-850k a downturn?

Didn't he just repeat what he said the first time?


The last numbers Meltzer said was that 189 could do 950k, but the numbers (as explained) were very erratic, so he was waiting for more info.

He said 190 will do over 800k
 
If he originally said "could do over 800k" then how is 800-850k a downturn?

Didn't he just repeat what he said the first time?

Over 800K was Rousey. Close to 1M was Conor. Conor down to 800-850K is a significant downgrade. Rousey topping Conor is an upgrade.

And if Rousey tops 1M PPV buys ala Botter, then that's just simply mind boggling.
 
its crazy casuals would rather watch a squash match in a weak division more than anything else the ufc offers.
 
So Connor lied about 189's million ppv buys in his tweet?

Now I'm seriously questioning whether or not he made that $3 million bet with Dana.
 
The perception boost that would come from the spectacle of filling a stadium is worth it for them me thinks.
 
Meltzer on the Dallas possibility
Right now it looks like Conor McGregor vs. Jose Aldo and Ronda Rousey vs. Miesha Tate will be a double headliner, just a question of whether it'll be on 12/5 or Jan. 2. Dana White was still talking about running 12/5 at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, although also said they hadn't yet booked the venue, and with the Calgary Hitmen moving their 12/5 game and UFC having a hold in Calgary, it could be there, in which case the McGregor and Rousey fights would likely be on Jan. 2. The Los Angeles Times
also reported the 12/5 date in Dallas for both fights. We had gotten reports from within the company earlier in the week of the Jan. 2 date, but it's safe to say the plans are for "the biggest show ever" with McGregor and Rousey, on one of those dates. The arguments are that just the idea of doing the show in Dallas and drawing whatever it would do, and the Manny Pacquiao numbers were less than 40,000 paid there when he was still at his peak, would make it seem like a bigger than ever event and a seminal moment for the company whereas MGM they play all the time. I believe Dallas will help slightly in PPV numbers, and perhaps more because Rousey and first time ever at that stadium will garner a ton of publicity that just a regular show at the MGM Grand won't get. But there are economic advantages of Las Vegas, as more people from Ireland would fly to Las Vegas and they can charge higher ticket prices and the cost of running the event would be significantly lower. With all the money that can be made on gamblers coming to town, Las Vegas and the casinos are going to want that show badly.
 
With the world tour and all the ads and promotion for the Connor fight, I'd be interested to know how much all that cost. I certainly hadn't seen the UFC invest so much in any other fight in recent memory, even Chael-SIlva 2.
 
So Connor lied about 189's million ppv buys in his tweet?

Now I'm seriously questioning whether or not he made that $3 million bet with Dana.

He might not have been lying per se versus being overzealous. That may have been the preliminary data that he took as gospel.

Meltzer said the data was very erratic as it was very area specific. For example, I could see Boston displaying extremely high numbers, while mid west or west coast cities might not have cared at all. That's why it's dangerous to take too much from the preliminary data. For example you typically have 45%-50% carry over from prelims to PPV, but that number can be all over the place.

For example, UFC 184 had a 50% retention rate. Mighty Mouse had an 18% retention rate. The highest numbers are up in the 60's to 70's.

If Rousey cleared 1M buys, she's hitting 65-70% retention rate which would put her among the highest carry overs in recent memory.
 
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