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Nate is severely drained at LW, I don't think he'll be able to take the punishment, and I think Conor will have more in the tank at LW.Considering that has only happened twice in his career, I'd go with no.
I would expect that he would pick his shots a lot more than the second fight.
To be truthful though, if Nate could drill some basic trip takedowns from the clinch, he could own McGregor in rounds 3-5 enough to earn the W, but would likely tap him out.
But... Diaz doesn't really learn new tricks, so I'd go with another 3-2 split or a draw.