On a scale of 0-10 with 0 being “no chance” and 10 being “absolutely will win”, I would give him a 4, he’s gotten better since their last meeting especially in his striking defense because he eats way less shots than before and has cemented it even further that he is very well rounded and can fight in multiple ways.
However, he is just at a massive disadvantage in terms of reach, he would literally need to leapfrog to get close to Izzy and then it’s not even a guarantee that he can land anything too significant to hurt Izzy because Izzy has incredible head movement.
IMO, to beat a guy like Asesanya you need to match or exceed the following poits: his reach, his size, striking and toughness. Whittaker definitely meets the toughness criteria but fails to meet the other points. Jan Blachowicz was able to beat him because he is bigger, has nearly identical reach and has striking credentials to match Izzys (Muay Thai champion at one point)