What do you guys think?
@TheMMAnalyst got any thoughts, buddy?
So sick that you get to go to MSG for a UFC - getting to go to 241 was so far the best live MMA event I've been too (quality seats helped - 20 rows back lower level behind the commentators so no cameraman blocking), hopefully you've got some killer seats and crew of shit-eating wild-men to attend with, really does make a difference
I think your breakdown was beyond spot-on; clearly you follow Makwan's progression, I didn't think he'd ever get to the next tier in the UFC because he seemed content to be a celebrity in Finland and get paid good money outside of fighting (so has only been fighting like once a year for 3 years or whatever).
In his last fight it was very noticeable that his cardio/strength looked far better and he was better in the transitions and more controlled in his sub-hunting. Physically he seems to be hitting a nice stride and his confidence is growing. That being said, for all the talk of his boxing and that he took a year off to box - I just don't see it. He is just not an intuitive striker, seems like he is deciding in his head if he is on offense or defense before things are happening. I would've hoped he'd be able to start building a game based around simple long-range strikes (jab, 1-2, low-kick), as he has very nice reactive double-legs and his submission grappling is top-notch, so guys need to be wary pressuring him. However if he can't keep them at range they will just work into the pocket and start throwing in combination and the defensive holes become more apparent.
Burgos is a heavy-handed technical brawler that loves to bang it out. Biggest flaws that I've seen so far seem to be that he headhunts and tends to admire his work (after he lands he'll stay in place instead of sliding/pivoting/resetting, seems to eat a lot of counters because of it). I remember him admiring his work far too much during the Kattar fight where he got KO'd after some nice technical brawling. In the Holobaugh fight he got dropped getting lazy with his hands/chin before hitting a sick armbar from guard (fast recovery indeed!). Swanson fight (most recent) he looked really big and strong (not sure if Swanson falling off made him look as good as he did though), very impressive performance overall though and showed he is a must-watch action fighter (kind of taking the mantel from Cub....shit, they even look alike!).
I think Makwan needs to be doing a lot of baiting, try to get Burgos to pressure to open up the takedowns. Makwan's physicality is finally where it should be but Burgos is no slouch and looked very powerful against Swanson; if Makwan could get to the later rounds and grapple him early could definitely wear him out as he has big muscles and looks to explode frequently. Burgos tends to fight as a technical-brawler that likes to swarm, but I haven't seen him deal with an opponent frequently shooting on him and turning things into battle of wills/cardio/heart. But is Makwan the fighter to make it that type of fight? If he fights to his new style that is exactly what he should do, take the Khabib gameplay of early clinch/wrestling before mixing it up later once the powerful striker has slower arms/legs and is desperate to land something.
I give the edge to Burgos in style, as he hasn't ever been subbed and seems massive with good TDD, but as noted he hasn't fought anyone of Makwan's quality as a grappler. I do think Makwan can win this fight with the right game-plan and approach though, but he is going to be walking a razor's edge every time he tries to exchange. X-Factor is the use of leg kicks, if Burgos can implement early and often I think he wins easily, but if Makwan can confuse him with footwork and possibly catch a kick early and turn it into a takedown could drastically swing the fight in his direction.
Back and forth war, both guys tend to go for it instead of sitting back - Burgos by KO/Makwan by sub in the 2nd, I think Burgos will be a favorite though so if you can get Makwan at +150 I'd be like...