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Maia is no Brendan Schaub, but will school Shields in the art of jiu-jitsu.
Subs in past 4 years:
Schaub - 1
Maia - 1
Shields - 0
I'd say your logic checks out pretty well.
Edit: Also Jon Jones has 4 subs in the same timeframe, including two over Brazilian Jiujitsu black belts, the only keylock in recent memory, subbed Rampage for the first time in a decade etc. This leads me to conclude he would sub Maia, Schaub and Shields at the same time.