Economy ~ Made In America ~ [US Shale Juggernaut Stomping OPEC + MFG's Biggest Annual Job Gain In 20 Years]

FT: China Factory Jobs Dry Up As Trade Tensions Hit Manufacturing

Outside the Sanhe Human Resources Market in Shenzhen, one of China’s biggest hiring sites for casual labour, a group of men vented their anger at not being able to find decent work.

“There are no orders in the factories — these factories all manufacture for the US,” according to one labourer, who asked not to be named.

“Now that China is fighting this trade war with the US, we’ve been killed by state policy,” said another.

The drop in job openings sits in stark contrast with the festive period last year, when it was “easy as hell to find work”, another labourer said.

All were quick to attribute the cause to the imposition of tariffs between the US and China that began in July and has continued to escalate. Workers and recruiters at the site complained of the slowdown in factory work this year in and around Shenzhen, the manufacturing and export hub of China’s economy.


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Manufacturing Industry Posts Biggest Annual Job Gain In 20 Years

The manufacturing industry posted net job gains of 284,000 over 2018, capping its best calendar year since 1997.

A priority for President Donald Trump, manufacturing saw marked hiring in December with an additional 32,000 jobs. Most of the gains occurred in blue-collar durable goods manufacturing, with growth in fabricated metals and computer and electronic products, the Labor Department said in its release. The definition of durable goods is items with a life expectancy of three years or more, such as automobiles, furniture and machinery.

Manufacturing added 207,000 jobs in 2017.

"Manufacturers are bringing people back into the workforce, and we need this trend to continue," said Dr. Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Association of Manufacturers.

"Our industry currently faces a workforce crisis with more than half a million open jobs today, and 2.4 million jobs expected to go unfilled over the next decade. Closing the skills gap continues to be the top challenge facing manufacturers in the United States and is absolutely essential to ensuring that the sector continues to grow."


 
This is the issue I weigh most heavily when I vote. It's the first or second most important war their is.
 
Construction also saw a net gain of 280,000 jobs in 2018 according to the Labor Department's data which comes with zero shock at all; was booming virtually non-stop. Quite an amazing year for the industrial sector on the whole.
 
This is going to be one mother fucker of a crash.
 
This is going to be one mother fucker of a crash.

Are you saying return of manufacturing is going to crash? This is a manufacturing thread, but usually when people say "crash" they mean financial, or some kind of market. Are you talking about industrial RE?
 
Construction also saw a net gain of 280,000 jobs in 2018 according to the Labor Department's data which comes with zero shock at all; was booming virtually non-stop. Quite an amazing year for the industrial sector on the whole.

Pennsylvania has been very active in upgrading its infrastructure the last few years. The turnpike, I95, various new interchanges, state routes 1 and 13, all of the major bridges, etc. They are doing a fucking great job. A direct result of the gas tax increases, no doubt.

And now Harrisburg is flirting with the idea of legalization.

Pennsylvania hasn't been on the vanguard of anything since the creation of this great nation, so we'll be one of the last ones to get on board with full legalization.

PA does a great job of utilizing tax revenue for the people, so I'm excited to see what happens when legalization gets passed.
 
Are you saying return of manufacturing is going to crash? This is a manufacturing thread, but usually when people say "crash" they mean financial, or some kind of market. Are you talking about industrial RE?

Manufacturing isn't isolated from the rest of the market, so yes.
 
This is going to be one mother fucker of a crash.

This. Train. Has. No. Brakes.

Are you saying return of manufacturing is going to crash? This is a manufacturing thread, but usually when people say "crash" they mean financial, or some kind of market. Are you talking about industrial RE?

Manufacturing isn't isolated from the rest of the market, so yes.

I haven't been posting them, but the real economy is already flashing a couple of industrial indicators that we're in for some headwinds around the corner. It's only going to temporarily slow the trend, not stop it. America's reindustrialization is happening come hell or high water and it's a great asset for the country.

The fourth industrial revolution is well underway and it's in our interests to be on the cutting edge of advanced manufacturing processes. Ultimately, we'll be fine on the economic and national security fronts merely remaining the de facto global leader in advanced materials, aerospace, and semiconductors.

The Construction boom jobs mostly go to union members does it not?

A fair amount of them, but only a little over 15% of construction workers are union members. It's predominantly ironworkers, electricians, plumbers and welders.
 
Pennsylvania has been very active in upgrading its infrastructure the last few years. The turnpike, I95, various new interchanges, state routes 1 and 13, all of the major bridges, etc. They are doing a fucking great job. A direct result of the gas tax increases, no doubt.

And now Harrisburg is flirting with the idea of legalization.

Pennsylvania hasn't been on the vanguard of anything since the creation of this great nation, so we'll be one of the last ones to get on board with full legalization.

PA does a great job of utilizing tax revenue for the people, so I'm excited to see what happens when legalization gets passed.

It's great to see other states getting their house in order.
 
FT: US Shale Juggernaut Will Stomp On OPEC’s Oil Plans

Oil prices may still be on course to average near $70 a barrel for the first time since the market crashed in 2014, but they are exiting 2018 at a lower level than they started on January 1. It will take a brave trader to bet that crude will finish 2019 above $70 again.

The reason, when you strip away all the geopolitical noise that roiled oil prices this year — from Iran sanctions and waivers, Venezuela’s meltdown, US President Donald Trump’s tweets and Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi — boils down to one simple point: the US shale juggernaut is back to traveling at such a pace that it is flattening all other developments in its path.

At the start of 2018 the US was predicted to add slightly less than 1m barrels a day of production over the year, according to a forecast made by the Department of Energy’s statistical arm. Other bodies such as the International Energy Agency and OPEC were forecasting similar amounts.

Instead, the US shale patch has not just surpassed those expectations but smashed straight through them, with the US Energy Information Administration now seeing crude oil production having grown by an average of 1.53m b/d or more than 50 percent more than they had anticipated. Year on year, production in early December was up 1.9m b/d.

That additional US oil, alongside higher output of natural gas liquids, starkly illustrates what happens when prices are at a level that can start to refill OPEC members’ depleted coffers — the US shale industry starts to expand at an incredible rate.

To put it in context, the US production increase in 2018 is roughly equivalent to adding half of Iran’s oil output to the market in one year. The year-on-year increase alone is larger than the individual output of eight of OPEC’s 14 member countries, or nine if you include Qatar, which plans to to quit OPEC next year as relations with its Arab neighbours sour.

The output surge means the US has ended the year as the undisputed top crude producer, with output approaching 12m b/d, pulling it comfortably ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia.
 
Oooh, somebody better forge their pacts!

Oil Price: U.S. Shale Challenges OPEC’s Oil Dominance In Asia

OPEC has now forged a new pact with its Russia-led non-OPEC allies to contain the oil price decline to $50 a barrel Brent—a price that is not enough to balance any budget of a Middle Eastern oil producer.

But the consequences of rising U.S. light oil production from the shale fields have also rippled through international oil flows and trade, making OPEC’s heavyweights such as Saudi Arabia fight for keeping market share in their most prized market and the world’s fastest-growing oil consumption region, Asia.

Moreover, increased crude oil production in the U.S. has also resulted in higher oil product exports which, combined with higher Chinese refined product exports, have created an oversupply of products in Asia, crashing refining margins earlier in December.

U.S. crude oil production has been breaking records in recent months, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Total U.S. petroleum exports have also been setting records over the past year, EIA data shows.

U.S. light crude oil exports to Asia have also grown and even with China shunning American crude, U.S. sales to OPEC’s key market Asia have held relatively steady since August this year, according to data from Kpler compiled by Bloomberg.

As OPEC is getting ready for another round of production cuts beginning January, Saudi Arabia for example is hell-bent on keeping its market share in Asia and has recently slashed the January prices of all its grades going to Asia, while it raised the prices for all grades bound for the U.S., Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean.

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members also have to contend with increased refined product exports out of the U.S., as well as China, which are creating a glut of gasoline and naphtha, depressing refining margins in Asia.


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lol you're cherrypicking and then finding gifs to stand in place of any sort of original thought.
this "cheap oil shows shale is kicking ass" idea is a fantasy tale. If oil stays this low, shale margins will be very thin. Meanwhile tons of other countries will be okay because they can produce a barrel of oil from the ground for cheaper than shale. In the short term I'm betting on oil to rise, which helps oil producing countries like us.
The true battle is alt-energy+economic slowdown vs. global oil producers supply manipulation.

So much winning right?
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bu...o-Stall-in-the-Other-Texas-Shale-13516738.php

'
Drillers in the Eagle Ford, Texas’s other shale oil patch, will likely scale back activity in 2019 as lower crude prices eat into cash flows.

Production has already started slowing. Supplies this month are expected to average less than 1.3 million barrels a day for the first time since May, according to consulting firm Rystad Energy AS. If West Texas Intermediate crude prices stay below $50 a barrel, output could fall to 1.2 million by the end of the year, said Artem Abramov, Rystad’s vice president of shale analysis. That’s 12 percent below the two-year high reached in October.

"Most of the producers we have talked to plan to reduce activity this year," he said by phone.'
 
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