Economy ~ Made In America ~ [US Shale Juggernaut Stomping OPEC + MFG's Biggest Annual Job Gain In 20 Years]

[panamaican]

I actually come from the midwest (North Dakota) and spent the first half of my life there before my dad took a job and moved our family down to Phoenix; I'm the first one to get a university education. I guess you could say we're barefoot farm people compared to the coasts but we aren't bad or stupid people, Pan. :-/ I think the Southern US is a lot worse in those respects, with a lot more racism and bigotry to go around as well.

North Dakota's redness is bemusing because it's a place with the only state-owned bank in the nation, voted overwhelmingly to siphon billions of dollars from the private sector and into public wealth fund coffers from the Bakken energy boom, abolished the death penalty 45 years ago and has been looking at reforms to make its prisons more humane with social programs to further slash recidivism. It already has an incarceration rate about one-third the US average and one of the lowest unemployment rates as well. It's predominantly German / Norwegian stock, and fittingly strives to imitate the latter's contemporary country in a socioeconomic sense.

US News: North Dakota Provides Residents With Best Quality of Life

^ It rated particularly high on metrics such as gdp per capita, natural environment, social environment, infrastructure quality, food security, labor force participation rate, fiscal stability and balance budgeting.

With a population of around 755,000, North Dakota ranks No.1 for the quality of life it provides its residents.

The state's small towns promote a positive social environment in which people are not only supportive of one another, but they are able to engage in their communities and feel that they are making a difference.

"I think something truly special about North Dakota is the way people are invested in it and how they love the state and they love their communities. They express that with their engagement and their commitment to all things they believe in," says North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

People want to have a purpose outside of their job, Burgum says, and North Dakota is a place where they can "be part of the community and make a difference."

I didn't say they were bad or dumb people. (I have family in N. Dakota)

I said the Midwest, writ large, has developed a reputation for not being open and inviting to the college crowd and/or minorities, that's balanced with a reputation for hard work and honesty/trustworthiness. The South has a reputation for having racists but it also has a reputation for Southern hospitality, a gentle way of life and general openness.

Those reputations might not be true but they are the reputations that people outside of those areas have about those areas. And those reputations will impact how desirable those areas are to outsiders. People who already live there can spend all day talking about how great it is but that's not real reach.

I was reading about how major metropolitan areas take control of their branding to change the type of people who consider their region for living, working and starting new companies. Every city has wonderful things but not every city is adept at selling those things to the general population. Most cities never even get beyond targeting tourists, let alone comprehensively re-branding themselves.

Philadelphia is always a fascinating case study because it sits between D.C. and NYC (and because I went to law school there). It's the comparatively ugly step-daughter no matter how you try to change it. Apparently, 20 years ago Philly got tired of being seen that way by the nation and started re-branding themselves. They spent a ton of money marketing the city to people all over the East Coast as a dining hub, a sports mecca, a cultural center. They spent money combating the "Philly hates Santa Claus" reputation. They embraced Rocky as a cultural icon and a representative of their value system. It worked.

Then they started targeting DC and NYC. Instead of competing with those cities, they started positioning themselves as an affordable intermediary. Live in Phila. for less while still working in D.C. or NYC. Or live in those cities but come to Phila. for cheap weekend trips. 20 years later, they've seen pretty solid results in turning around the city's rep nationally and internationally.

The Midwest needs to undertake a similar charm offensive.

 

[NoDak]

From a (shitty) article on Quartz covering the study:

Millennial or Generation Z employees “would rather take less pay if they feel like they are working for a company that has a social purpose,” Pajula said. She points out that “people don’t think of manufacturing as sexy, creative, or attractive, and in technology, companies are more attractive.” The prospect of higher wages elsewhere is a factor, yet Pajula said “image is the bigger problem.”

Oh. Would they, Pajula?

That's funny, I could've sworn indispensable national and strategic assets spawned by American innovation such as the aerospace and semiconductor industries - in addition to being primary sources of high wage employment and global exports - manufactured the most creative, R&D intensive, technologically advanced products in the world? They're also overwhelmingly based stateside, 'Made In America'. That's part of why our output is so high and of course, I'm right. Are these kids retarded? My generation, SMH. No more gender queer studies and lesbian dance theory for you.

I guess people do kind of loathe the likes of Boeing, Lockheed and Northrop Grumman these days although their employees seem to be happy; the latter was listed at #1 on a survey of the best companies to work for in the United States on Indeed. The flight systems group of their Innovation division - formerly Orbital ATK - is based here in Phoenix-Metro right next to Intel's absurd Ocotillo campus and fabrication manufacturing plant, with another (the third) $7 billion facility currently under construction. Microchip, ON and NXP all have manufacturing capacity here, Boeing builds the Apache AH-64's here, etc.

The talent of the labor pool, educational infrastructure, business environment, quality of life, cost of living and supply of land is all very impressive in Kyrsten Sinema's AZ district and she also co-sponsored the bisexual bipartisan 2017 Made In America Act, but whatever. ASU has been named the most innovative university in the country four years running and the Ira Fulton Schools of Engineering have over 20,000 students, but we can't house everything now.

How is this not sexy?

^^ Aside from @VivaRevolution, of course. A very disgruntled Boeing employee working on commercial airliners in Washington state. It's duly noted.

 

[NoDak]

I didn't say they were bad or dumb people. (I have family in N. Dakota)

I said the Midwest, writ large, has developed a reputation for not being open and inviting to the college crowd and/or minorities, that's balanced with a reputation for hard work and honesty/trustworthiness. The South has a reputation for having racists but it also has a reputation for Southern hospitality, a gentle way of life and general openness.

Those reputations might not be true but they are the reputations that people outside of those areas have about those areas. And those reputations will impact how desirable those areas are to outsiders. People who already live there can spend all day talking about how great it is but that's not real reach.

I was reading about how major metropolitan areas take control of their branding to change the type of people who consider their region for living, working and starting new companies. Every city has wonderful things but not every city is adept at selling those things to the general population. Most cities never even get beyond targeting tourists, let alone comprehensively re-branding themselves.

Philadelphia is always a fascinating case study because it sits between D.C. and NYC (and because I went to law school there). It's the comparatively ugly step-daughter no matter how you try to change it. Apparently, 20 years ago Philly got tired of being seen that way by the nation and started re-branding themselves. They spent a ton of money marketing the city to people all over the East Coast as a dining hub, a sports mecca, a cultural center. They spent money combating the "Philly hates Santa Claus" reputation. They embraced Rocky as a cultural icon and a representative of their value system. It worked.

Then they started targeting DC and NYC. Instead of competing with those cities, they started positioning themselves as an affordable intermediary. Live in Phila. for less while still working in D.C. or NYC. Or live in those cities but come to Phila. for cheap weekend trips. 20 years later, they've seen pretty solid results in turning around the city's rep nationally and internationally.

The Midwest needs to undertake a similar charm offensive.

I don't see very much in tangible initiative being taken to change it at this point either. Arizona has worked particularly hard over the last couple decades to cultivate itself as a tech hub for local start-ups, out of state firms and foreign companies alike but it couldn't happen without the educational infrastructure and development of a talented labor pool.

Of course, when I say 'tech' I'm talking predominantly about the subject of this thread: advanced manufacturing (aerospace, materials, semiconductors) rather than information technology, although that's been growing exponentially over the last five years in particular as well.

 

[panamaican]

I don't see very much in tangible initiative being taken to change it at this point either. Arizona has worked particularly hard over the last couple decades to cultivate itself as a tech hub for local start-ups, out of state firms and foreign companies alike but it couldn't happen without the educational infrastructure and development of a talented labor pool.

Of course, when I say 'tech' I'm talking predominantly about the subject of this thread: advanced manufacturing (aerospace, materials, semiconductors) rather than information technology, although that's been growing exponentially over the last five years in particular as well.

This really is a demographics issue at its roots and tied up in a bunch of related factors.

The more diverse the community, the more variety of ideas. This results in a greater chance of finding one that works. Immigrants are heavily invested in higher education as the tool by which they can succeed. More ideas from better trained people - better chance of improving the overall community. The Midwest, despite having many good and some great universities, has become a place where diversity might go to get educated but then leave with their skill sets.

Arizona is an interesting example. It's gone from 60% white and 25% Hispanic to 37% and 50% respectively. I'm not going to claim that the increase in Hispanics is responsible for Arizona's increased attractiveness to business. Rather, I'm going to suggest that the greater diversity of people makes it easier to attract the type of people who see those things as an indicator that the community will embrace them. I think that makes it easier for companies to convince talent to relocate to those areas. I think that's particularly relevant in the tech space where the immigrant population is heavily represented.

 

[VivaRevolution]

^^ Aside from @VivaRevolution, of course. A very disgruntled Boeing employee working on commercial airliners in Washington state. It's duly noted.

Are you tracking the lion air crash?

That is some crazy shit.

Biggest proof of this quote ever.

"Nobody panics when things are going 'according to plan'. Even if the plan is horrifying."

 

[NoDak]

This really is a demographics issue at its roots and tied up in a bunch of related factors.

The more diverse the community, the more variety of ideas. This results in a greater chance of finding one that works. Immigrants are heavily invested in higher education as the tool by which they can succeed. More ideas from better trained people - better chance of improving the overall community. The Midwest, despite having many good and some great universities, has become a place where diversity might go to get educated but then leave with their skill sets.

Arizona is an interesting example. It's gone from 60% white and 25% Hispanic to 37% and 50% respectively. I'm not going to claim that the increase in Hispanics is responsible for Arizona's increased attractiveness to business. Rather, I'm going to suggest that the greater diversity of people makes it easier to attract the type of people who see those things as an indicator that the community will embrace them. I think that makes it easier for companies to convince talent to relocate to those areas. I think that's particularly relevant in the tech space where the immigrant population is heavily represented.

I kind of cringe when people promote "diversity" for the sake of it strictly as a social ideal and don't elucidate on why they find it to be a strength (do they even know?) but in the right environment and context it yields a highly positive confluence of ideas that boost a country's talent pool and capacity for innovation across all sectors.

America's ethnic / genetic diversity gives it an inherent advantage over a rising power such as the PRC where, although it certainly exists, is fixated on pushing a Han-dominated homogeneous "dream". I think it's been sufficiently demonstrated in other threads how much of a handle we still have on the scientific discovery and technological advancement fronts.

Arizona is interesting and lucky. Motorola established its R&D division in Phoenix in the 1950s but it was Intel who really made the first enormous, fate-changing investment in the state back in 1980 which has since amounted to tens of billions towards research, development and manufacturing capacity with three separate fabrication plants today plus a basic assembly site normally found in Malaysia for the cheap labor.

The founder and chairman of the aforementioned Microchip (an immigrant) is a former Intel employee. Steve Sanghi starts that company no matter what, but in Arizona? ON Semiconductor spun out of Motorola as an independent firm and started business in Phoenix in 1999, then came the flood of NXP, Marvell, Maxim Integrated, Qorvo among others along with the semiconductor machinery firms (Applied Materials, ASML, Entrepix).

Aerospace is another animal and story, but at this point we're up to having about the third highest concentration of manufacturing jobs in the sector. They've all got operations here, in like everything: parts development, avionics and sensor technology, information systems, power systems, weapon systems, armor systems, space technologies.

 

[roofuststuntbum]

The way that skilled labor is looked down upon in USA diminishes the pay in my opinion. When i was in school it was all about GPA and going to a good college for something you don't even know if you want to do.

When is the last time you met someone that wanted to learn how to properly pave? Someone that went to a Millrwright school?

I'm an ASE certified master tech, TIG and MIG welding certifications, CDL license, own/run heavy equipment and a hand full of other shit that no one cares about.

Never went to college, no student loans.

I work for myself and stack paper doing "blue collar" work.
My friends that went to college are still paying student loans, and don't make shit.

 

[NoDak]

Are you tracking the lion air crash?

That is some crazy shit.

Biggest proof of this quote ever.

"Nobody panics when things are going 'according to plan'. Even if the plan is horrifying."

I'm more into space and defense than the commercial sector, but everyone is claiming they were unaware of the 737's MCAS function - Lion Air, American Airlines, even US pilot unions but doesn't the FAA hold responsibility for certifying Boeing jets and training programs for pilots? They say the automated response can be shut off "by pressing two buttons" and that the action is set out in a checklist. Another potential crash was recently averted.

 

[jx820]

How is this not sexy?

You have to bear in mind people's desire for a social value to their work. There are a lot of people who wouldn't see manufacturing weapons sexy, particularly after nearly 2 decades of constant war to one extent or another.

If you tell people your company is engineering a drone that will clean the Great Pacific Garbage Patch they can see the social value in their work. Even if the revenue drivers are unclear and they've never seen the garbage patch.

If you tell them that you make the drones and bombs used to blow up wedding parties and execute American citizens without trial (both actual things we've done with drones) it gets a little harder to see the social value even if you know the same drones may save American lives. Moreover you know the main revenue driver is ludicrously outsized military spending and historically high US debt. Those are not sexy things and the social good they offer comes with a lot of baggage.

 

[NoDak]

You have to bear in mind people's desire for a social value to their work. There are a lot of people who wouldn't see manufacturing weapons sexy, particularly after nearly 2 decades of constant war to one extent or another.

If you tell people your company is engineering a drone that will clean the Great Pacific Garbage Patch they can see the social value in their work. Even if the revenue drivers are unclear and they've never seen the garbage patch.

If you tell them that you make the drones and bombs used to blow up wedding parties and execute American citizens without trial (both actual things we've done with drones) it gets a little harder to see the social value even if you know the same drones may save American lives. Moreover you know the main revenue driver is ludicrously outsized military spending and historically high US debt. Those are not sexy things and the social good they offer comes with a lot of baggage.

I was being half serious although from a purely engineering perspective those examples are utterly, undeniably, spectacularly sexy. The US isn't even the largest manufacturer of drones, that would be DJI in China. Bombs are bad, but aerospace constitutes a little more than that. There isn't any inherent military purpose for things like orbital launch systems, satellites or spacecraft.

Hell, even the infamously evil Lockheed Martin has probably contributed more to scientific research and human advancement than the majority of corporations with 'social causes'. I'd of preferred JPL to build Juno (currently in polar orbit around Jupiter), but you can't always get what you want.

 

[jx820]

I was being half serious although from a purely engineering perspective those examples are utterly, undeniably, spectacularly sexy. The US isn't even the largest manufacturer of drones, that would be DJI in China. Bombs are bad, but aerospace constitutes a little more than that. There isn't any inherent military purpose for things like orbital launch systems, satellites or spacecraft.

Hell, even the infamously evil Lockheed Martin has probably contributed more to scientific research and human advancement than the majority of corporations with 'social causes'. I'd of preferred JPL to build Juno (currently in polar orbit around Jupiter), but you can't always get what you want.

I don't disagree at all on any point. I'd probably work for any of those firm's if the money was right, but if you are talking about young idealistic people, they may struggle to separate the guidance system they made being used for safer landing from their system also being used to guide a bomb to it's target.

I applied for a gig at a military facility as a civilian consultant in a non-weapon facing capacity and even though I'm a jaded prick, I still had to do a bit of soul searching.

 

[RockstarChris]

Before we get to the central thread topic and study, a quick review would probably serve a decent purpose here.

There are some pretty huge misconceptions about US manufacturing, the state and future of it. Industry 4.0 is upon us: driven by a massive volume of available data, developments in analytics and machine learning, new forms of human-machine interaction and the ability to transmit digital instructions to the physical world. The whole sector is undergoing a reinvention and many of the new jobs will require skilled labor.

The importance of a strong manufacturing base is probably understated considering that it indirectly supports millions of other jobs (17.1 million to be exact, according to an EPI release in 2015) and has the highest multiplier of any economic sector: each dollar’s worth of manufactured goods generates around $1.40 in output from other sectors of the economy (per Forbes).

It's also actually very far from "hallowing out"...

The US Is Beating China On The Factory Floor. This Is Why.

How The US Plans To Replace China As The World's Largest Manufacturer

Reshoring Initiative Data Report: Manufacturing Reshoring Plus FDI Job Announcements Up 2,800% Since 2010

Now here's the actual problem.

Deloitte: Future Of Manufacturing Skills Gap (Study)

For more than two centuries, the manufacturing industry has adopted new technologies and provided new jobs for workers. Today, the industry is experiencing exciting and exponential change, as technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and Internet of Things (IoT) are rapidly changing the workplace. While some predicted that these new technologies would eliminate jobs, we have found the reverse—more jobs are actually being created.

In fact, job openings have been growing at double-digit rates since mid-2017, and are nearing the historical peak recorded in 2001. In this dynamic manufacturing environment, Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute launched their fourth skills gap study to reevaluate their prior projections and move the conversation forward on today’s hiring environment and the future of manufacturing work. The results appear to highlight a widening gap between the jobs that need to be filled and the skilled talent pool capable of filling them.

The study reveals that the skills gap may leave an estimated 2.4 million positions unfilled between 2018 and 2028, with a potential economic impact of $2.5 trillion. Further, the study shows that the positions relating to digital talent, skilled production, and operational managers may be three times as difficult to fill in the next three years.

 

[NoDak]

@Bald1

 

[RockstarChris]

I didn't say they were bad or dumb people. (I have family in N. Dakota)

I said the Midwest, writ large, has developed a reputation for not being open and inviting to the college crowd and/or minorities, that's balanced with a reputation for hard work and honesty/trustworthiness. The South has a reputation for having racists but it also has a reputation for Southern hospitality, a gentle way of life and general openness.

Those reputations might not be true but they are the reputations that people outside of those areas have about those areas. And those reputations will impact how desirable those areas are to outsiders. People who already live there can spend all day talking about how great it is but that's not real reach.

I was reading about how major metropolitan areas take control of their branding to change the type of people who consider their region for living, working and starting new companies. Every city has wonderful things but not every city is adept at selling those things to the general population. Most cities never even get beyond targeting tourists, let alone comprehensively re-branding themselves.

Philadelphia is always a fascinating case study because it sits between D.C. and NYC (and because I went to law school there). It's the comparatively ugly step-daughter no matter how you try to change it. Apparently, 20 years ago Philly got tired of being seen that way by the nation and started re-branding themselves. They spent a ton of money marketing the city to people all over the East Coast as a dining hub, a sports mecca, a cultural center. They spent money combating the "Philly hates Santa Claus" reputation. They embraced Rocky as a cultural icon and a representative of their value system. It worked.

Then they started targeting DC and NYC. Instead of competing with those cities, they started positioning themselves as an affordable intermediary. Live in Phila. for less while still working in D.C. or NYC. Or live in those cities but come to Phila. for cheap weekend trips. 20 years later, they've seen pretty solid results in turning around the city's rep nationally and internationally.

The Midwest needs to undertake a similar charm offensive.

I moved from California to Kansas City and the people here can be really nice but really judgemental. I wear flip flops when it is 10 degrees and snowing and people are always telling me i should get some winter boots. At least im not black.

 

[Cubo de Sangre]

I wear flip flops when it is 10 degrees and snowing and people are always telling me i should get some winter boots.

Is that judgment or just good advice?

 

[RockstarChris]

Is that judgment or just good advice?

i have winter flip flops

 

[NoDak]

 

[NoDak]

I don't disagree at all on any point. I'd probably work for any of those firm's if the money was right, but if you are talking about young idealistic people, they may struggle to separate the guidance system they made being used for safer landing from their system also being used to guide a bomb to it's target.

I applied for a gig at a military facility as a civilian consultant in a non-weapon facing capacity and even though I'm a jaded prick, I still had to do a bit of soul searching.

 

[GSP_37]

I saw a YouTube video of a documentary on this USA Toyota manufacturing plant and was impressed by all the thought that went into making a car and reducing the chances of defects while being as efficient as possible. It was a combination of humans and robots.

I saw this one armed robot on TV in Japan where it totally replaced a human coffee shop worker.

 

[NoDak]

^ That's a 10/10 music video, @N13.

I wear flip flops when it is 10 degrees and snowing and people are always telling me i should get some winter boots. At least im not black.

Is that judgment or just good advice?

i have winter flip flops

Chris...