Economy ~ Made In America ~ [US Shale Juggernaut Stomping OPEC + MFG's Biggest Annual Job Gain In 20 Years]

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by NoDak, Nov 14, 2018.

  1. SBJJ

    SBJJ Gold Belt

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    I honestly think he was just trying to be funny. Then again, he seems socially awkward and is trying real hard to fit in with the far left crew
     
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  2. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    He should've let ZTE collapse, this was absolutely delicious and he hasn't been bad here, it's not like these are market based transactions anyway. And what sort of "investment" is it that China makes in the United States exactly, the sort of organic FDI capital investments that result in stateside job creation?

    Uh, no. It's just code for buying up US tech assets, transferring intellectual property overseas and having American employees train their Chinese replacements. Even buying a minority stake gives you access to industrial trade secrets and every single one of these Chinese buyers is connected to the CCP government in one way or another. I don't really use the word, but in what sort of cucked out of your fucking mind world does that make sense to allow? @Warlord Palis?

    [​IMG]
     
  3. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    Indeed, but I can't imagine how much CA politics drive you up a wall.
     
  4. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    Been through the fire before, can take a whole lot more.

    Forbes: U.S. Manufacturing Can Take The Punches - It Is Stronger Than You Think

    The December drop in the ISM Manufacturing Index seemed to bring the bad news that many feared and yet wanted to see—like a scary scene in a horror movie. The one-month fall was eye-catching: 5 percentage points, the sharpest since the end of 2008. It lined up well with concerns over weakening global growth and subpar stock market performance. It bolstered fears that the trade war with China has started to take a toll on U.S. economic activity. And it provided fuel to the argument that the Fed should stop hiking interest rates. Economists in investment banks and research institutes will be busy updating their recession probability models.

    But something in the data does not quite add up. We should be careful not to rush to see just what we want to see.

    Initial reactions were quick to link the December drop in the manufacturing ISM to protectionism and slowing global growth. But the sub-index for New Export Orders increased, to 52.8 from 52.2, showing that export orders not only kept growing, but grew at a faster pace in December than in the previous two months. Low expansion levels, to be sure, and well below the robust numbers recorded from end-2016 through last September, reflecting weaker global growth and a stronger U.S. dollar. But manufacturing export orders stabilized in November and improved in December, rather than deteriorating further—even though most recent data have indeed flagged a further loss of momentum in both China and Europe.

    The second dissonant note comes from employment. December Non-Farm Payrolls, released yesterday, showed that in 2018 U.S. manufacturing recorded the strongest increase in employment in over twenty years (since 1997). And in this year of record employment growth, the fourth quarter was the strongest quarter, and December was the strongest month.

    If the manufacturing sector is losing steam, why does manufacturing employment still go from strength to strength?

    We have seen above that the ISM new export orders do not show a more severe drag from weaker global growth. As for the domestic economy, the November ISM index for the services sector remained at a record-high level; and overall employment growth in December far exceeded expectations, capping a very strong year with an uptick in labor participation, unemployment below 4%, and average hourly earnings recording the strongest full-year rise in this expansion cycle, at 3.2%. The U.S. economy has lost some momentum, but remains quite healthy—which provides home-grown support to the manufacturing sector.

    Manufacturing activity keeps expanding, albeit at a slower pace. And innovations in manufacturing technologies have just started to boost the efficiency and competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers—which might help explain the stabilization in export orders in a weaker global growth environment. [See the OP, homie]

    U.S. manufacturing is a lot more resilient than the latest headlines would make you think. It can take the punches—don’t give it for dead yet.
     
  5. Amerikuracana

    Amerikuracana Titanium Belt

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    We have to stop sending communist China so many billions. The bad outweighs the good, if their is any.

    I have a finance background. I state it as simply as possible, because that's what it breaks down to.
     
  6. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    The full data report won't be out until early Spring, but Harry Moser (of the Reshoring Institute) says the figure for 2018 was a net gain of 131,000 manufacturing jobs brought back from offshore. That's less than the 171,000 of 2017 but still a healthy increase. The total number as a result of reshoring since the employment low of 2010 now stands at 705,000+.
     
  7. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    I shudder at what lay in the WaPo comment section.

     
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  8. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    Forbes: U.S. Shale Oil And Natural Gas, Underestimated Its Whole Life

    The Shale Revolution has been rising so quickly that EIA predictions for 5, 10, or 15 years down the road are being surpassed in a single year’s time. At 11.7 million b/d of crude oil, we are now at production levels EIA’s most recent Annual Energy Outlook (February 2018) predicted we would not see until 2030. An obliteration of a 17 year projection in less than 12 months. And the U.S. Department of the Interior believes that we could reach 14 million b/d by 2020.

    We are now producing 80% more crude oil than EIA predicted we would be back in 2012. In 2016, the geniuses at Morgan Stanley claimed that “U.S. production growth won’t come until $80 a barrel.” Yet, WTI averaged a paltry $43 in 2016, $51 in 2017, and $65 in 2018, and somehow U.S. crude oil production still soared 20% 2016-2018.

    The underestimation of the U.S. shale gas business is just as huge as it is for oil. Today, we are producing ~87 Bcf/d, which is a whopping 30% higher than the 67 Bcf/d EIA projected that we would now be producing back in 2012. Forecasts go higher stunningly fast. For example, from just September to December 2018, EIA upped its forecast for 2019 U.S. gas production by about 7% – or an extra California’s worth of consumption suddenly added as new supply.

    In fact, the Shale Revolution has shown us that the amount of oil and gas that we can produce is essentially unlimited. Just a month ago, ”Feds Discover Largest Oil, Natural-Gas Reserve in History.” The U.S. Geological Survey concludes that shale in Texas and New Mexico hold 49 years worth of oil.

    There is no question, however, that quick decline rates, low prices, and too much debt are all problems for the industry. But, an analysis on the sustainability of shale must be broader than simply examining the balance sheets of various oil and gas companies. With far deeper pockets and integrated solutions, "Why Majors Will Take a Bigger Role in U.S. Shale” the U.S. shale business has continued its march forward (and local communities are better off for it) [Duh].

    As the International Energy Agency says, it will be a “journey” to better financial performance, but, critically, the industry is now reaching a turning point. The longer term conditions are lining up for solid profits: more production, more consumption, lower costs, higher prices, and more exports. Greater consolidation is also bringing more economies of scale.


    [Shortened Excerpt]
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2019
  9. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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  10. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    E X C E P T I O N A L I S M

    U.S. Manufacturing Production Increases by Most in 10 Months

    U.S. manufacturing output surged significantly in December. Despite a volatile 2018, the sector is still expanding and generating impressive number of jobs. Manufacturers have increased capital spending and hiring driven by massive tax overhaul, deregulation, strong domestic economy and upbeat business sentiment.

    On Jan 3, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the U.S. manufacturing expanded in December 2018 for the 116th consecutive month. Over the last 12 months, the average value of the manufacturing index has been pegged at 58.8, reflecting strong growth in the sector. Notably, any reading above 50 indicates overall growth of the manufacturing sector.

    According to the Department of Labor, the manufacturing sector generated 284,000 jobs in 2018, highest since 1997. This sector generated 207,000 jobs in 2017. Within the sector, durable goods industries, which produce industrial intermediaries, generated nearly 89% of job additions.

    The National Association of Manufacturers reported that about 500,000 manufacturing jobs are currently available in the United States. A recent study by the Manufacturing Institute and Deloitte has projected that by the end of 2025, the U.S. manufacturing sector will witness shortages of around 2 million skilled workers.

    On Jan 18, Bloomberg reported that China has offered to ramp up imports from the United States in the next six years. Total value of these imports will be $1 trillion which will bring down the United States' massive trade deficit with China to zero in 2024.


    AND stop stealing our tech, you glass jawed cunts.

    @Amerikuracana @lifelessheap @JonesBones
     
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  11. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    We'll see.


     
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  12. ElKarlo

    ElKarlo Gold Belt

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    Yeah man didn't expect this. Nothing makes sense now. I think we were all expecting the late stages of an expansion.
     
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  13. grizzard2bid

    grizzard2bid Happy Camper Belt

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    Trump bless.
    Trump effect on the economy is undeniable, regardless of all his other issues. He put this economy on overdrive when it was ready to shift into 1st gear again. No denying it and I have to give him credit there.

    Just raising national pride about "made in America" is a big deal. I do pay more attention to items I buy and where they are manufactured.
     
  14. grizzard2bid

    grizzard2bid Happy Camper Belt

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    Considering Arizona had McCain and Flake as Senators, Sinema can't be seen as a some kind of shock. Terrible voting IQ, dear Arizonians.
     
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  15. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    I'll never go full Arizonan, I'm back home often enough.
     
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  16. bobgeese

    bobgeese Silver Belt

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    You’re doing gods work here @NoDak
     
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  17. grizzard2bid

    grizzard2bid Happy Camper Belt

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    That heat and arid air is cooking their brains. Gotta be. I get warm just looking at pictures of Arizona.
     
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  18. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    Never thought I'd have someone tell me that. :p I'm just a very patriotic American citizen who cares a great deal about the country's well being. I also work in the industrial sector, so I'm inclined to promote and advance its interests in particular.

    I mentioned in JDragon's space science thread that if anyone ever finds themselves in Arizona, you've happened upon some of the absolute greatest stargazing locales on the entire planet, and that's no hyperbole. Grand Canyon area is pretty nice for it on top of the allure of being the Grand Canyon but there's actually three other IDA certified dark sky communities (out of 16 total on the globe) in Flagstaff, Big Park and Sedona. Preserving the environment and minimizing pollution of all varieties is taken pretty seriously.

    Sedona By Day:

    [​IMG]

    And Night:

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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  20. ElKarlo

    ElKarlo Gold Belt

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