Economy ~ Made In America ~ [US Shale Juggernaut Stomping OPEC + MFG's Biggest Annual Job Gain In 20 Years]

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by NoDak, Nov 14, 2018.

  1. SBJJ

    SBJJ Gold Belt

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    So my daughter was a member of the 2014 and 2015 VEX robotics champioship team. It's actually a pretty big thing as it's worldwide with many teams. 2014 was held in Anaheim,CA(where we live) and KY grabbed it in 2015 on. Our team(I was a mentor) won it 2014-2015. The kids did the vast majority of the work with minimal input by the adult mentors

    Then comes 2016 and China has 2 teams entered. From the get go we could tell this was not a elementary level robot the teams were using. It was painfully obvious their mentors had built their units. Anyway, one of the teams ended up being disqualified for altering their robot after inspections and it really was a kind of everyone against them feel during the tournament

    Puerto Rico ended up winning that year if I recall

    But I really got the sense from the whole experience that it is a cultural thing with the Chinese. It's a WIN at all costs philosophy. Damn any rules or ethics
     
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  2. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    Why would you think that's my idea? It's kicking ass because the country is now the world's largest producer, has become a net exporter for the first time in 75 years and is eating into OPEC and Russia's market share. The margins for US shale producers were already acknowledged pages ago.

    The break even price has more than halved from what it was only a couple years ago because this is the most innovative country on the planet. "Tons" of other countries will not be okay, the KSA's actually isn't much lower at this point and unlike "us", their entire society is dependent on its energy sector to function.

    One of the other battles with alt energy as it relates to current green tech (on a global scale) are the challenges and shortcomings to do with latitude, climate, intermittency, supply / demand mismatch, density and transmission.
     
  3. brackis1

    brackis1 Gold Belt Platinum Member

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    Without proper infrastructure for alt-energy to capture the market share of oil, having a bunch of countries, ours included suffer from rapid expansion and contraction of oil fields is terrible for the global economy and creates zero winners.
    But it makes sense that you'd willfully ignore global interconnectivity in your quest for rah rah nationalism.
     
  4. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    I agree, though the tech itself right now lacks too.

    My rah rah "nationalism" is all-inclusive.

    Not necessarily, man.

     
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  5. MadSquabbles500

    MadSquabbles500 Steel Belt

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    Pretty cool, what kind of robot your daughter built? What can it do? And is she of legal age?










    I kid, I kid, how old is she though?
     
  6. SBJJ

    SBJJ Gold Belt

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    YIKES!! Was elementary school like I posted

    She was 10-12 At the time

    Each team gets a kit of plastic parts along with gears and motors. You can purchase additional parts. But the actual robots must fall within a specific size range and you can not use anything but the specified VEX parts.

    Each year they would have a different game that usually involved picking up and dumping objects. There was also an autonomous competition as part of the entire competition

    Was really cool but the kids and their families all worked their asses off. As did the 2 teachers in charge
     
  7. MadSquabbles500

    MadSquabbles500 Steel Belt

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    Oh in that case how old is she now? You got any pics









    I kid, I kid, I dont need to know any of that.
     
  8. SBJJ

    SBJJ Gold Belt

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    A mathematician you are not

    PS Asking for pics of underage girls is not a good look bro.

    Let me guess. You hate Chris Hansen?
     
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  9. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    CCP controlled China is like an empire of IP and trade secret theft. It's a cornerstone and central tenet of their culture - a top down, state-directed intransigent strategy to undercut the output, competitiveness, investment, research, development and innovation of others; mostly the US since it invented and spawned the majority of modern industrial high tech. I will continue to say that (and more) because it's 100% factual.
     
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  10. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    Huh, I never would've guessed that.
     
  11. jefferz

    jefferz Gold Belt Platinum Member

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    What the fuck is wrong with you?
     
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  12. JohnnySagebrush

    JohnnySagebrush Purple Belt

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  13. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    Yeah, I know and you're right. Every other time I've qualified it with "pushing the brink" (post-Bloomberg article) and I think I just kind of subconsciously dropped it because we are way ahead of schedule; this was supposed to be a thing maybe by the end of 2019 if not some time in 2020.
     
  14. JohnnySagebrush

    JohnnySagebrush Purple Belt

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    The shale boom was possible because of easy, cheap credit. Now they are faced with decreasing prices and tightening credit markets.
    It doesn’t look great.

    The great paradox with shale is that even as production surges to unbelievable record levels, they aren’t making any profit. The industry never really has made profit, but has been propped up by readily available capital investments.

    It really seems to be a pseudo-Ponzi industry; investors read of record outputs and invest, driving up stock prices, previous investors see dividends and buy more stock. But look at the finances, and most of these companies have been in the red for years (and years). Industry can be kept propped up with capital influx for a long time, but you can’t avoid the fact that eventually it comes down to gross income minus expenses, and if that number isn’t positive, you aren’t actually a profitable business. And US shale isn’t net profitable right now, and hasn’t been.
    http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Red-Flags-on-U.S.-Fracking_October-2018.pdf

    /oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Has-A-Glaring-Problem.amp.html
     
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  15. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    If shale was going to die, it would've happened when the break even price was $90. Saudi Arabia did everything in its power to drive out and crush it. They failed, miserably. It only accelerated and drove the innovation to more extreme ends. I hear that's what is going to happen in regards to China and their domestic semiconductor industry thanks in part to the US imposing investment restrictions and export controls (which started with Obama), so let's just see if they're up to it. Let's see that motherfucking mettle, China. Show dem balls, bro. I'd be willing to take that bet if we stopped with the half measures.
     
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  16. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    It's been very profitable for North Dakota's public coffers. I remember you posting that article in another thread where the Russia Today / Zero Hedge guy who thinks the CCP is on the cusp of tech superpower status (with no IC industry lol) and wants the Yuan to be the world's reserve currency despite their entire existence being one big vested interest against it was talking about it. The concerns you bring up are actually legitimate although there are arguments against it as well. The most recent and extensive of which is probably here from October, with an excerpt for people who can't be bothered.

    Shale Oil Is Not A Ponzi Scheme: Evidence From Decline Curves

    The shale revolution was launched in 1997 and became operative in full throttle since the 2000s. It has greatly improved the energy independence of the U.S. (see here); because of record-setting shale oil production, the U.S. net oil imports, a measure of the domestic oil sufficiency, declined from over 12.5 MMbo/d in 2005 to 3.7 MMbo/d as of 2017 and are projected to drop further to 2.4 MMbo/d this year and to 1.6 MMbo/d next year (Fig. 1)(see here). The rising production of cheap shale gas and the resultant coal-to-gas conversion did the heavy lifting for greenhouse gas emission reduction in the U.S. (Fig. 2)(see here).

    In spite of the valuable societal benefits that are derived from the shale revolution, the business of shale exploitation got little respect. As the oil crash brought the industry to its knees, various financial media and environmentalist organizations talked down the shale developers in an air of palpable schadenfreude.

    One of the more popular rhetorics presents a shale E&P project as a perverse black hole, gorging an ever larger amount of capital while producing little financial return. Operationally, the shale developer has to drill an increasing number of wells to stay ahead of the accelerating natural decline of production, as though he were jogging on a treadmill that goes ever faster (Fig. 3). Don't feel sorry for the shale oil industry, opined the conspiracy theorists, because it is running the biggest Ponzi schemes known to mankind, pumping in cheap money in billions to inflate the acreage valuation so as to create a mirage of financial viability for a time, only to enrich the select few (see, e.g., here).


    I can understand the doubt about shale's economic viability when the oil price was down - which is part of human nature - but it surprises me the treadmill metaphor appears to have taken a life of its own even as the shale developers regain vigor as oil price rises. Investors who still believe the negative talks about shale oil may have missed out opportunities offered by a great number of shale developers.

    In this article, I intend to introduce some salient facts which, as you will see, contradict with the false accusations against shale oil. Specifically, I will derive an average decline curve from the production data for wells drilled since 2009 in the Permian Basin, the most productive shale provinces in the world; I will then demonstrate, in the life of a shale development project, an ever decreasing number of new wells are actually needed to offset the natural decline thus to maintain a flat production profile; my argument is further strengthened by two additional factors, i.e., the impact of the oil price crash on the accounting profitability of E&P companies and the effect of capital efficiency gains and operating cost-cutting at shale operators.
     
  17. JohnnySagebrush

    JohnnySagebrush Purple Belt

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    Shale didn’t suffer too badly because they had continual inputs from the financial sector. Those inputs can’t stop, because shale isn’t financially self-sustainable (with few exceptions). Now, there are several ways this can play out and I have 2 balls, neither of which is crystal. But tightening credit markets and decreased oil prices are awful for the shale industry.

    You see the shale industry with starry eyes, imo, and look at it from a techno side (which, yes, is very impressive). But you seem to lack understanding of the finances of marginal petroleum.
     
  18. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    It's a dirty industry. I see it as more of a short term asset to be leveraged geopolitically and resource to siphon billions worth in socioeconomic benefits for my home state. This thread has become really energy specific over the last few pages and the Financial Times hyperbolic headline drew additional attention, but it really wasn't and isn't the focus. The technological innovation born out of shale exploration has been pretty astonishing though and it's always cool to see what the country is capable of when pushed. It's good to be under pressure and required to go balls to the wall.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. NoDak

    NoDak [ [ Tech Noir ] ] Platinum Member

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    And why ITT?
     
  20. SBJJ

    SBJJ Gold Belt

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    Of course not. America is a big place
     
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