Machida has to KO Weidman if he wants to win.

I predict Weidman by utter beatdown. Weidman is a different type of beast. KO in round 1.
 
ectera said:
Meanwhile Lyoto was champion at a heavier weight class and faced the best wrestlers in that division.
Click to expand...

Meanwhile, Lyoto is now fighting at 185/MW and is facing a wrestler better than Phil Davis is in MMA (at least with the takedowns and his own TDD). Rashad didn't even shoot once or try at all to take Machida down when they fought. Jones took him down, so did Hendo, and so did lots of other fighters that have fought him. Weidman will take him down and if he can keep him there long enough to hurt him then he's in for some serious trouble.

Even on the feet, Weidman already beat arguably the best striker in MMA and he did it twice. Machida's punch variety is very basic, almost always straight punches, and he'll shift from one to the other and spring forward (not a great idea against Weidman). His kicks and knees are very good but if/when he attempts to use them he'll also have to worry about being taken down. Even Mousasi, a guy who isn't even a wrestler, was able to take Lyoto down after he threw a kick.

Lyoto will be very hesitant of Weidman's TD's and power. That alone will hinder his striking just like it did Anderson's. Just because he has better TD than Anderson doesn't mean that won't affect him because it will. He'll have to close the distance and tag Weidman with something and hope that he doesn't get taken down or catch a big punch or elbow in the process.
 
Just The Facts said:
Are you saying that Weidman will get fewer TDs than Phil Davis did? The same Phil Davis that Weidman took down repeatedly when they wrestled each other in college in the same weightclass and Davis was unable to take Weidman down?

Interesting.

Is Lyoto somehow going to win the grappling battle??
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Jesus Christ.

You realize this is MMA, right? I'm sure you also understand that striking isn't allowed in wrestling don't you?
 
Just The Facts said:
Are you saying that Weidman will get fewer TDs than Phil Davis did? The same Phil Davis that Weidman took down repeatedly when they wrestled each other in college in the same weightclass and Davis was unable to take Weidman down?

Interesting.

Is Lyoto somehow going to win the grappling battle??
Click to expand...

I hope you are aware that Machida vs Davis was @ 205 and Davis was 20lbs heavier nonetheless it was a fight Machida won. Lyoto might have more grappling knowledge than most of Weidman's previous opponents on top of that. Not saying Weidman will or will not get the TD on Machida, but it definitely won't be easy as he did AS.

I'm sure Machida will know what to expect against another MMA fighter with collegiate wrestling experience.

popwarnermma said:
He was also KO'd and submitted at that weight class, to be fair.
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Yeah. Bones who would beat Weidman easily and Shogun who is to most in their top 5 LHW fighter of all time.
 
Just The Facts said:
Are you saying that Weidman will get fewer TDs than Phil Davis did? The same Phil Davis that Weidman took down repeatedly when they wrestled each other in college in the same weightclass and Davis was unable to take Weidman down?

Interesting.

Is Lyoto somehow going to win the grappling battle??
Click to expand...

dude... Weidman and Phil Davis don't even have slightly similar wrestling styles... and did you watch that match... it was 5 to 4 and super competitive...

I think this fight is a pickem but your logic is extremely juvenile.
 
manapua said:
Frankie beat bj the first time in a close decision using his bike
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yeah and then Benson took it from him on a close decision...thats two not that long ago so not sure how TS thinks Machida couldn't win on points
 
This is a really close match up so either Machida fans or Weidman fans acting like there is no way the other can win are being ridiculous.
 
Got GOAT said:
Meanwhile, Lyoto is now fighting at 185/MW and is facing a wrestler better than Phil Davis is in MMA (at least with the takedowns and his own TDD). Rashad didn't even shoot once or try at all to take Machida down when they fought. Jones took him down, so did Hendo, and so did lots of other fighters that have fought him. Weidman will take him down and if he can keep him there long enough to hurt him then he's in for some serious trouble.

Even on the feet, Weidman already beat arguably the best striker in MMA and he did it twice. Machida's punch variety is very basic, almost always straight punches, and he'll shift from one to the other and spring forward (not a great idea against Weidman). His kicks and knees are very good but if/when he attempts to use them he'll also have to worry about being taken down. Even Mousasi, a guy who isn't even a wrestler, was able to take Lyoto down after he threw a kick.

Lyoto will be very hesitant of Weidman's TD's and power. That alone will hinder his striking just like it did Anderson's. Just because he has better TD than Anderson doesn't mean that won't affect him because it will. He'll have to close the distance and tag Weidman with something and hope that he doesn't get taken down or catch a big punch or elbow in the process.
Click to expand...

Lyoto worrying about being taken down is the only thing that'll possibly make the striking anywhere near even, Weidman may have KO'd the best striker in mma (once), but that same guy was trippin on acid and thought he was at center stage for a limbo tournament. Weidmans striking is okay and combined with the takedown threat he may have some success, but ive got reason to believe his striking is not half as good as alot of people think.
 
This makes sense "I would say being a 2:1 underdog doesn't sound unrealistic." how you arrived there, well lets just say you took a back road.
 
jko1355 said:
dude... Weidman and Phil Davis don't even have slightly similar wrestling styles... and did you watch that match... it was 5 to 4 and super competitive...

I think this fight is a pickem but your logic is extremely juvenile.
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I know they don't. Weidman was known for his explosive double, Phil would chain wrestle until he wore you down to get he TD--he wasn't known for having an explosive shot. Phil was also the undisputed master of top control and leg riding.

It just happens that Weidman's style translates better into MMA. The only reason I brought Davis up was that some ppl think Machida cannot be taken down at this weight class. If Chris was known as having a better single shot than Phil, he will likely be able to get at least one TD on Machida. Maybe that's juvenile, but any prediction really is--we just don't know what will happen.
 
I would say if it goes to a decision lyoto has won. Weidmans cardio isnt good enough to go 2 rounds, unless we see some serious improvements weidman could be another overeem/belfort (dangerous for just over a round then done).
Im fully expecting weidman to come in with a game plan tailor made to finding holes in machidas game we never knew existed, and that is the only thing that makes me think weidman is in with a chance.
 
Corleone187 said:
Yeah it kinda sucks how he runs away all the time but there's nothing Weidman can really do to him

Betting the house of Machida for this is the easiest money you'll ever make. Ever.

You can get to Machida if you have cage generalship but Weidman doesn't really have cage generalship, he'll need to trap Machida which he won't be able to do.
http://boxrec.com/media/index.php/Ring_generalship

Jones for sure has cage generalship and Shogun a bit so it helps them

The fight will really be lopsided
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Interesting perspective. I'll remember this post and bump if you turn out to be correct.
 
Bendo won the title from edgar unconvincingly.
having said that, weidman displays unconvincing cardio. With his slow telegraphed strikes i can't see chris with much chance in this one. His only chance is via gnp.
 
The big thing for me is Weidman has never shown good cardio... he looked tired in round 2 of both fights with Silva... I know he won but he looked tired..

He also looked super tired against Maia(i know about the short fight camp) and against Allesio Sakara...

He always looks fantastic in round 1 but after that its a little more hazy.. even when he KO'd munoz in round 2 it wasn't with aggression but with a counter when Munoz got desperate after getting beat up in round 1..

I actually have the opposite opinion as you and think if it goes past round 1 think Machida is very likely to get the decision win.
 
Just The Facts said:
When was the last time you saw anybody lose a championsip belt via decision in a close fight? Lyoto knows this himself; he benefitted from it when he got the decision over Rua in their first fight.

I sometimes wonder if Sonnen would have got the nod if he had evaded the triangle from Silva. Only two I can recall offhand were Benson over Edgar and before that Edgar over Penn.

So Lyoto can forget about point fighting strategies. He will more than likely lose the grappling aspect, and even if he outstrikes Weidman, anything that is in the realm of a close fight will go toward Weidman.

So that leaves him knocking Chris out or submitting him.

Given that, I would say being a 2:1 underdog doesn't sound unrealistic.

Thoughts?
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Obviously this is a pure hypothetical, but if Chael held on and Silva took that decision it would have been the worst robbery in MMA history
 
Im pretty sure Machida will be running the whole fight, until Christ catches him that is.
 
jko1355 said:
The big thing for me is Weidman has never shown good cardio... he looked tired in round 2 of both fights with Silva... I know he won but he looked tired..

He also looked super tired against Maia(i know about the short fight camp) and against Allesio Sakara...

He always looks fantastic in round 1 but after that its a little more hazy.. even when he KO'd munoz in round 2 it wasn't with aggression but with a counter when Munoz got desperate after getting beat up in round 1..

I actually have the opposite opinion as you and think if it goes past round 1 think Machida is very likely to get the decision win.
Click to expand...

The Sakara fight was also short notice fyi as Sakara's opponent got hurt I believe. 14 day notice on that one.

As for Munoz...are you saying Chris looked tired in round 2? I didn't see that. Anderson knocked out many an opponent with a counter strike and I never heard him criticised for bad cardio because he didn't land the first strike.

I think Machida has the ability to eek out a decision, I just don't think it's a good strategy tbh. Putting it in the hands of the judges doesn't make sense as a challenger. That wouldn't be my gameplan anyway
 
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