Machida has to KO Weidman if he wants to win.

I find it astonishing that people forget Machida's exceptional TDD that kept him on his feet for the majority of his run...to becoming and as a champion....in a higher weight class....against larger men. Weidman's wrestling is great but I don't think for a second he'll be taking Machida down at will. That's just silly, gentlemen.

Truth be told, this fight is quite even across the boards but I still give Machida the edge because I think he dictates where the fight takes place. If his TDD holds up, I don't see Chris having more luck in the standup. If not...well, we will see how good Machida's BJJ really is.

I didn't say he would take him down at will. But it is likely that Weidman will take Lyoto down more than vice-versa.

You can defend the TD 19 of 20 times and still lose the grappling. It's just like blocking a punch--you don't get points for blocking them, that's what you're supposed to do. Your reward is that your opponent becomes exhausted from failed TD attempts. You don't get points for TDD nor should you.

And again my point is even if you think Machida might have the 'edge', it better be a massive friggin' edge as a challenger in a title fight. That's just UFC history.
 
Frankie beat bj the first time in a close decision using his bike
This, and Frankie also lost his belt to Benson via a close decision. So Weidman could drop his belt via decision, TS, and, if he did, it wouldn't be unprecedented.
 
Yeah it kinda sucks how he runs away all the time but there's nothing Weidman can really do to him

Betting the house of Machida for this is the easiest money you'll ever make. Ever.

You can get to Machida if you have cage generalship but Weidman doesn't really have cage generalship, he'll need to trap Machida which he won't be able to do.

Jones for sure has cage generalship and Shogun a bit so it helps them

The fight will really be lopsided

Lyoto thrives against guys who will chase him. Chris will chase him if he loses his head during the fight. He admitted to doing so against Anderson, but I don't think Machida clowns to get him off his game. Lyoto has to make him stand and frustrate the hell out of him until he gets pissed and goes for broke. That's where Machida is most lethal.

I reiterate, this fight depends on Machida's TDD, because if Weidman can take it to the ground he will fall into his game plan. Machida has bad luck once guys get settled in and start working their game.
 
Machida only out points washed up has beens. New up and commers like Phil davis beat him handily in points. His only option is a flash knock down followed by strikes and an early ref stoppage.

lol WHAT!?!?!?!

1. Machida did not get handily beaten by Phil... Most people called it robbery of the year and most had it 30 27 for machida... so...

2. Machida only outpoints hasbeens? Like Mousasi? or do you mean that he outpoints hasbeens and finishes good fighters like rashad?

plus ur a mad hater with the flash ko early stoppage shit. he has KO'ed multiple fighter brutally...

its actually funny you say that because arguably noone has ever beat machida on points... he has 2 decision losses and both were hotly contested... I know he has those losses but the majority thought he won both fights.
 
Machida only out points washed up has beens. New up and commers like Phil davis beat him handily in points. His only option is a flash knock down followed by strikes and an early ref stoppage.

Beat him handily? Get real; that was Machida's fight.
 
Machida only out points washed up has beens. New up and commers like Phil davis beat him handily in points. His only option is a flash knock down followed by strikes and an early ref stoppage.

Ouch that's one of many ways to look at it
 
Close UD's do tend to always favour champions in title fights, and Lyoto does usally either fights to a close UD or gets the KO, so you have a point
 
This, and Frankie also lost his belt to Benson via a close decision. So Weidman could drop his belt via decision, TS, and, if he did, it wouldn't be unprecedented.

If you read my full OP you would notice I mentioned those two fights.
 
Forrest griffin got the belt from rampage in a close decision... and your point is pretty invalid since there have only been a couple close fights in ufc championship history that went to a decision...

the judging seems to not favor the champ like boxing in general in mma.
 
Phil davis beat him handily in points.

lol. Machida's only losses were against Shogun and Bones.

Machida is gonna go into this fight confident as fuck not saying that Weidman won't either, but the fact that Lyoto is basically KNOWN for his TDD and has a sumo wrestling background isn't good for Weidman.
 
machida won over so many good wresslarz weidmann has 0 experience fighting someone like machida. Machida taking the belt will be a formality!
 
Forrest griffin got the belt from rampage in a close decision... and your point is pretty invalid since there have only been a couple close fights in ufc championship history that went to a decision...

the judging seems to not favor the champ like boxing in general in mma.

Oh I don't know about that. I think Machida's win vs shogun, GSP over Hendricks, couple of Benson's wins all would have been different if they weren't title fights.

I think if the fight in any way resemble Davis/Machida, Machida can expect to lose.
 
Can't wait for this fight.

A lot of people counting Machida out
 
lol. Machida's only losses were against Shogun and Bones.

Machida is gonna go into this fight confident as fuck not saying that Weidman won't either, but the fact that Lyoto is basically KNOWN for his TDD and has a sumo wrestling background isn't good for Weidman.

Are you saying that Weidman will get fewer TDs than Phil Davis did? The same Phil Davis that Weidman took down repeatedly when they wrestled each other in college in the same weightclass and Davis was unable to take Weidman down?

Interesting.

Is Lyoto somehow going to win the grappling battle??
 
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