Machida has to KO Weidman if he wants to win.

When was the last time you saw anybody lose a championsip belt via decision in a close fight? Lyoto knows this himself; he benefitted from it when he got the decision over Rua in their first fight.

I sometimes wonder if Sonnen would have got the nod if he had evaded the triangle from Silva (HYPERBOLE!!). Only two I can recall offhand were Benson over Edgar and before that Edgar over Penn.

So Lyoto can forget about point fighting strategies. He will more than likely lose the grappling aspect, and even if he outstrikes Weidman, anything that is in the realm of a close fight will go toward Weidman.

So that leaves him knocking Chris out or submitting him.

Given that, I would say being a 2:1 underdog doesn't sound unrealistic.

Thoughts?

 

Well I don't think that's true

 

I got Machida keeping the distance and outpointing Weidman. Can' t really see a decision. But thats just me

 

Whats the line? I think 4 sure Machida will win via running away and I highly suspect that Weidman will be a HUGE favorite after looking at the ridiculous MMA odds which are always out of touch with reality like the Glover line being so close and the the Matt Brown line which was literally retarded

 

Weidman via TKO/GnP in te second. Machida's bike can't go fast enough to stay out of te mix.

 

dead @ the thought of Machida KOing Weidman sounding "unrealistic"

 

Dis.

 

Where did I call it unrealistic??

 

Machida has the style to beat Weidman.

 

Machida only out points washed up has beens. New up and commers like Phil davis beat him handily in points. His only option is a flash knock down followed by strikes and an early ref stoppage.

 

That's the point of my post; no one has ever won a title fight by running and point fighting. If you are the challenger and want to win you have to either finish your opponent or completely dominate him. That's just the reality, fair or not.

Right now weidman is about a 2:1 favorite.

 

Frankie beat bj the first time in a close decision using his bike

 

aren't you implying that because Machida is an underdog it's "unrealistic" for him to get the finish? if not i misunderstood.. my bad.

 

the other way around

 

Weidman gets the clinch and takes pitter patter machida to the ground. Tko in 4th

 

Lyoto lasting 5 rounds with Weidman is unlikely. Either he finishes Weidman or gets finished himself. The latter is likely what will go down due to how dangerous Weidman is with his grappling and striking (GnP included). He's also bigger, stronger, more powerful and has a longer reach. Weidman's fight IQ, creativity, confidence and heart might be his biggest assets though aside from being very well-rounded with absolutely excellent timing, very good footwork and defense (submission & striking).

Weidman via (T)KO inside 3 rounds. I already have a sig bet on the winner with LambChopChamp. :icon_twis

 

This is true....whether he can implement it is another animal...

 

I find it astonishing that people forget Machida's exceptional TDD that kept him on his feet for the majority of his run...to becoming and as a champion....in a higher weight class....against larger men. Weidman's wrestling is great but I don't think for a second he'll be taking Machida down at will. That's just silly, gentlemen.

Truth be told, this fight is quite even across the boards but I still give Machida the edge because I think he dictates where the fight takes place. If his TDD holds up, I don't see Chris having more luck in the standup. If not...well, we will see how good Machida's BJJ really is.

 

No what I'm saying is that since Lyoto has fewer "win" options than normal (he can't rely on a close decision to go his way in a title fight in which he is an underdog), that I understand why he is an underdog.

If it was a non-title fight he would have a better chance; but in this instance he is going to be forced to take more risks. He would be less of an underdog if this was a title eliminator....

 

Yeah it kinda sucks how he runs away all the time but there's nothing Weidman can really do to him

Betting the house of Machida for this is the easiest money you'll ever make. Ever.

You can get to Machida if you have cage generalship but Weidman doesn't really have cage generalship, he'll need to trap Machida which he won't be able to do.
http://boxrec.com/media/index.php/Ring_generalship

Jones for sure has cage generalship and Shogun a bit so it helps them

The fight will really be lopsided