I agree that Tony is not getting the next shot under no circumstances (unless Conor wants to fight Tony)I see it this way;
McGregor win via KO: McGregor vs GSP next
McGregor win via close UD: McGregor vs Khabib 2
Khabib win via smash or close UD: McGregor vs Khabib 2
McGregor win via KO and Diaz win: McGregor vs Diaz 3
Scenario 1: McGregor vs GSP & McGregor vs Khabib 2
.Tony/Pettis winner vs Diaz/Dustin winner
Scenario 2: McGregor vs Diaz 3
.Tony/Pettis winner vs Gaethje
.Lee/Iaquinta winner vs Khabib/Alvarez winner
I don’t see Ferguson getting the title shot with a win over Pettis. Even though it doesn’t make sense, I think Diaz will by pass him if he beats Dustin.
The only way Ferguson gets a title shot is if McGregor wins in dominant fashion, Diaz loses and the UFC refuses to make GSP vs McGregor, wish I highly doubt because of the state the sport is in right now.
Another scenario could be McGregor winning in dominant fashion, Ferguson and Diaz losing and ne UFC not granting GSP a title shot. Maybe McGregor vs Dustin 2 could happen, but I honestly think he would probably challenge the WW champ at this point.
Tony vs anyone isn't a big fight.
The only way I see it happening is if Conor beats Khabib and Gsp isn't available