Lord Turner "Europe Turning Japanese"

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by PabloZed, Jan 3, 2015.

  1. PabloZed

    PabloZed Brown Belt

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  2. goldennirvana

    goldennirvana Satanic black magic!

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    Europeans live too comfortably now. They need something that's going to kick them back into reality. I hope for a total economic collapse.
     
  3. PabloZed

    PabloZed Brown Belt

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    I'd prefer to see gov'ts take a chunk out of large fortunes instead of continuously beating down average worker.
     
  4. vcmmafan

    vcmmafan Black Belt

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    I hope Europe does well
     
  5. AgeofEmpires2**

    AgeofEmpires2** Silver Belt

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    History repeats itself. Nationalism will unite them soon.
     
  6. bubkusjones

    bubkusjones Brown Belt

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  7. PabloZed

    PabloZed Brown Belt

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    News out today that Germany is ready to let Greece exit eurozone. Doesn't sound like unity to me.

    And thanks Bubkus^
     
  8. OldGoat

    OldGoat Red Belt

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    Lolwut?

    Governments aren't short on money. Why are so many on the crackhead left confused by the differences between wealth and money?
     
  9. PabloZed

    PabloZed Brown Belt

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    From where I am standing, government's have debt. Greece and Italy are in debt. If instead of using debt to close budget gaps taxes were raised, at least budgets would move toward balance. There is not much more that can be cut.

    Germany is certainly the only large economy that doesn't have a debt problem.
     
  10. ElKarlo

    ElKarlo Steel Belt

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    Germany has some serious demographic problems similar to Japan's. They need more babies otherwise their economy will slowly fade
     
  11. zulqarnayn

    zulqarnayn Green Belt

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    Or more immigrants; i'm sure people there will welcome them with open arms.
     
  12. Pecker123

    Pecker123 Black Belt

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    Well the bank of Japan was the first major economy to implement quantitative easing if I am correct.

    He is expecting another round of quantitative easing in the eurozone in 2015 but doubts its level of effectiveness and that Europe may be faced with a period of low growth and low inflation similar to what Japan has experienced.

    This could exacerbate social tensions and see a further rise in far right/left parties and lead to the break up of the eurozone in a more extreme scenario.

    We will have to see what the countries and the ECB will do.

    From a UK perspective they talk about low inflation but that is unlikely to resonate with the man in the street who has to pay his bills and has seen the cost of living increase dramatically since the onset of the financial crisis.

    More QE to encourage the banks to lend is all well and good but the results are not equitably shared.

    We are looking at a massive NHS funding crisis in the next few years predicted to be a 20 billion black hole around 2020 not to mention an unknown black hole in pensions further down the line.

    The govt has not been able to achieve its target of eliminating the deficit during this parliament nor achieve its targets for economic growth. They were warned that cutting to much to fast could hamper our long term growth and this has been the case, it has created a drag on our economy.

    Now more supply side nonsense about tax cuts for the rich. They need to keep the 50% rate in place and lower VAT to stimulate consumer spending and another round of QE and they might just might be able to balance the books by the end of the next parliament unless we have a recession. Basically we are not growing fast enough to pay down the deficit and further cuts could be detrimental yet we have liabilities.

    The scary thing is the uk economy is growing faster than most others. If inflation is so low and we are worried about deflation then why not stimulate the economy?

    The national debt? We are not paying down the national debt now, it is growing by 2 billion pounds a week! Without economic growth we are fubar, we cant eliminate the deficit, the electorate won't stand for a 20 billion black hole in NHS spending when the govt can find 65 billion to bail out banks.

    Lord Turner may be right that more 'radical' policies may be needed.
     
  13. the ambush

    the ambush Red Belt

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    European countries are becoming xenophobic, too?
     
  14. Thames

    Thames Brown Belt

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    Interesting. Though the situation is quite different.
    The European Central Bank does not work inside the same parameters as a national central bank. The EU countries faces very different obstacles, and there's not a "one-size-fits-all" policy that will simply stimulate the economy in all 28 member states imo.

    I don't think QE is e.g. what the Scandinavian countries need. That would spell a disaster for our already critically low savings and probably be the beginning of a new house bubble. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...es-debt-at-own-risk-as-higher-rates-loom.html
    It could however be what the southern european countries need (though I have not analyzed that enough to say anything concrete). Now that's just one example. I could go on and on. But this was simply to illustrate that a one-size-fits-all policy is not an option for the ECB imo, unlike it was for the central bank in Japan.

    But, and not to go off topic here, there actually is an area where Europe is turning Japanese. And that's with the increasing nationalism and xhenophobia. It has always been present in Europe, but those concepts have seen a rapid increase in popularity inside the last 10 years. I think it's very possible that we will suffer the same consequences like Japan has in that area.
     
  15. the ambush

    the ambush Red Belt

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  16. PabloZed

    PabloZed Brown Belt

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    I very much agree with sentiment that there is no one policy to address the problems in the Eurozone.

    The Germans are adamant that more and more debt is unacceptable, not just because of their history but also for their future. Germany is aging and has no desire to load up on debt just as pension and healthcare costs are increasing for their elderly.

    The Brits have a chronic housing shortage. I don't know why some kind of public-private investment bank to build housing isn't the answer. Construction is so good for an economy it seems a no-brainer.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2015
  17. PabloZed

    PabloZed Brown Belt

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    There was an article just last week in the JapanTimes that said the low crime rate is a myth. Apparently, Japan has a very high rate of crimes against women that go unreported or even ignored. I seem to recall that the article said Japan is safe "except if you happen to be female."
     
  18. YoungBoyd

    YoungBoyd Milletinin lideridir Erdoğan

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    I am sure they will as long they are non-muslims and non-black.
     
  19. PabloZed

    PabloZed Brown Belt

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    There is anger directed at European immigrants, too, particularly those from the East.
     
  20. YoungBoyd

    YoungBoyd Milletinin lideridir Erdoğan

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    Nvm. Yes, some dislike eastern europeans.


    Merkel should do an Erdogan and say that birth-control is un-germanic :)
     

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