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Live betting strategies UFC 242

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by BaruchSpinoza, Sep 7, 2019.

  1. BaruchSpinoza Optical lens grinder

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    I'm not sure what fights will be available for live-betting at my bookies, but this might be an interesting topic nonetheless.

    For live-betting it seems like good practice to have an idea of how the fight will play out and think through what scenarios could warrant a bet. Roughly following a formula such as "If x, y and z, then bet fighter A". Of course no formula can take all the relevant details into consideration, but they can at least specify what to look for during the fight.

    I'll post a sketch of my thoughts on live-betting opportunities on this upcoming card. Feel free to do the same, or to criticise my points!

    Khabib vs. Poirier
    I have a little on Poirier pre-fight, but once the fight starts I think I just want to enjoy this one without looking to much at betting lines!

    Felder vs. Barboza
    This fight is all about if Felder can implement a pressure heavy game plan and keep inside Barboza’s kicking range. How this dynamic seems to play out early may warrant a bet on either side.

    Islam vs. Ramos
    I think Ramos is way more likely to fade than Islam. So, if Ramos looks good in round one, and the lines start to even out, a bet on Islam might be a good idea.

    Blaydes vs. Abdurakhimov
    If Blaydes fails to get takedowns early, and doesn’t look to be able to physically overpower Abdurakhimov, it might be worth taking a stab on Abdu.

    Taisumov vs. CDF
    No.

    Jojo vs. Lee
    The problem live betting this fight is that, at least to my mind, Jojo basically has to get takedowns to win–and if she does, the line will change... Possibly, if she were to get a strange flukey takedown early and end up dominating round one there could be betting opportunities on Lee after round one.

    Zubaira vs. Murphy
    This is one of those fights where the underdog’s most likely path to victory is some sort of flash KO, which makes it a difficult to live bet. However, if Murphy looks able to compete early he may be worth a stab before the line changes too much.

    Moras vs. Jojua
    I see no reason to believe that Moras won’t do what she usually does: start fast and then tire. This means that betting Jojua after round one may be a good spot (at +odds, that is).

    Teemu vs. Ottman
    No.

    Belal vs. Sato
    Pass.

    Nordine Taleb vs. Muslim Salikhov
    The most likely dynamic is Nordine Taleb outscoring Muslim, but with the ever present possibility of suddenly getting KTFO. This is a difficult dynamic to live bet. However, if Muslim comes out and looks able to make it close it close on the scorecards, I think that the added KO chance would make him worth a bet if the odds stay around even.

    Cummings vs. Akhmedov
    Akhmedov’s cardio is notoriously bad. If it’s a high-tempo fight with him looking good early, but starting to show a slight slight tendency to breath hard: put a little on Cummings.

    Madge vs. Ziam
    No.
     

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