Lawler Huge Underdog

Shotcy

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@Blue
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I kinda thought this was a pick em fight. Slight edge to Askren maybe?

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Would you guys bet on Robbie with these odds? Forget the rest of my picks there.
 
Just looked and Lawler is + 265 right now which I think is ridiculous.

So yes, I am planning on betting on him at those odds. That will be my first MMA bet. Thank you for reminding me to open an account somewhere...
 
Yeah I would play him, but a straight bet. Would ever throw in 2½ to 1 underdogs in 4 leg parlay with a bunch of favorites. Especially not with Cyborg and Max since I think Nunes and Ortega both have good chances to win
 
I'm still a little worried for Max's health, otherwise I'd pick him all day.
 
I kinda thought this was a pick em fight. Slight edge to Askren maybe?

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Would you guys bet on Robbie with these odds? Forget the rest of my picks there.
Get holloway out of that parlay and put jones. I wouldn't pay juice for valentina either tbh, she's very tentative for my liking, could lose a close dec. Cyborg is winning
 
Get holloway out of that parlay and put jones. I wouldn't pay juice for valentina either tbh, she's very tentative for my liking, could lose a close dec. Cyborg is winning

Thank you! Will consider not using Valentina. I feel good about Holloway but if his weight cut goes bad, he could be in trouble. Maybe he comes in overweight? Dont like betting on Jones with his time off! Think there's a good chance for an upset.
 
Thank you! Will consider not using Valentina. I feel good about Holloway but if his weight cut goes bad, he could be in trouble. Maybe he comes in overweight? Dont like betting on Jones with his time off! Think there's a good chance for an upset.
Bro Gus has been out for longer. This whole narrative about jones being inactive when comparing him with gus is fake. Jones will gameplan this fight and win decisively, like he did vs dc in the second fight
 
Get Holloway out of that parlay and put Jones.
Yes. Jones is gonna finish him this time. Same as he did to DC in the rematch. Jones is nasty MOFO with killer fight IQ. I almost feel sorry for Gus. Ortega is tough opponent. Holloway should win, but how sure are you? I stopped betting against Ortega since I lost ton of cash in that Moicano fight. His next fights I was betting on him. Here - pass.
I wouldn't pay juice for valentina either tbh, she's very tentative for my liking, could lose a close dec.
She is not losing a close decision, no way. She is absolutely gonna win with a wide decision at the minimum. She was much more active in her first fight @ 125 vs that brazilian bum. She is much more athletic than Joanna. I love Jedrzejczyk, but she is outgunned here big time. I know Val was in close decisions more than once @ 135, but she was not cutting hardly any weight there. Especially in her first 2-3 fights in UFC.
Cyborg is winning
Maybe, maybe not. Won't count out Nunes in any fight. ATT > Parillo/Tito Ortiz
 
Usually when fighters go up in weight, they are smaller, but faster than the heavier opponents they face in the higher weightclass.
Valentina is bigger AND faster than Joanna. It's a tough, tough fight for the polish girl.
 
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Ok, just opened an account and Lawler at + 250 is likely to be my first bet.

A question : except that odds can go both ways, is it generally too early to place the bet? I mean, the fight is in 2 months.
 
Usually when fighters go up in weight, they are smaller, but faster than the heavier opponents they face in the higher weightclass.
Valentina is bigger AND faster than Joanna. It's a tough, tough fight for the polish girl.
Agree, also think valentina wins 90%. She has all the advantages. But she simply isn't that aggresive, she just isn't. She likes to pick her shots and make it a technical fight. Joanna is no priscila cachoeira, don't expect this to a blowout. She will score with legkicks and weak jabs. They are both fast. It'll be competitive since valentina isn't a risktaker, but still she is the better striker and should win. Wouldn't touch her ml tho, that's just me.

Interested to see how the fight would play out if valentina takes joanna down. Valentina sub is def a possibility
 
Joanna is no priscila cachoeira, don't expect this to a blowout.
I am saying it with heavy heart (because I like Joanna), but I expect something similar. I would not count out a finish.

@ theTKDguy There are two things in play here that make me firmly believe she is not going to be so passive:
Number 1 - She lost to Nunes exactly because she did too little. She was angry at the judges, but I at the same time she knew that the fault for this loss was her too.
Number 2 - She was pretty active v Cachoeira. Yes, she opted to go to the ground, and it was not necessary at all. But I've seen her fights and I know that this is what she do when she feels she need to do more. The clinch was her comfort zone in MT, and it translated into clinches into TDs for MMA. You know she got a lot of sub wins prior to UFC? She even submitted Pena, who is supposed to be good on the ground.

She won't let the judges rob her of another win, I'm telling you. She is gonna be active and she will score a lot. Not with her striking but mainly in the clinch. Joanna have no hopes in the clinch with her, just too underpowered. The only thing I can think of Joanna possibly doing to better her chances is to change her style enterely. She has to use a lot, a lot of kicks and frustrating in and out movements and long weapons like the jab, a ton of feints too. She need to be way out of clinch range and never come close. 25 mins to never let Val grab her in collar tie is so unlikely that it's insane. This whole thing about the style change is in the realm of dreams. It's never going to happen. Even if happens, she still has small chances of actually winning like that. She is too slow to go in and out, her thing is cardio, she is not dynamic type of fighter.

TKD, I think even if you put a lot of money on Shev, it's not gonna be a sweat. That's my thoughts.
 
It seems to me like that these odds are slowly narrowing.

Can someone tell me if betting this early is a foolish thing to do?

As I have said, I see this as a bargain that is going to get arbitraged away slowly, yet it is obviously very early right now.
 
I have already bet a lot on this, someone is clearly betting against me because the line keeps getting moved back to +265.
 
I have already bet a lot on this, someone is clearly betting against me because the line keeps getting moved back to +265.

So you are not scared of betting that early ?

I am really considering betting already because as I mentioned (and contrary to what you are saying), it feels like the lines are in some narrowing tendency.
 
Agree line is too high based on body of work, but this is a matchup nightmare for Robbie. I'm waiting for a spot to fade askren but don't like this spot.

About betting early it's all up to you, if you can afford to have the money tied up that long go for it. If you have a limited bankroll, or credit line on your book then you may want to consider waiting. Lines do move and it can definitely be profitable to take advantage early.
 
Yeah I need to watch some tape quickly but I'll just bet this week, I think.
 
So you are not scared of betting that early ?

I am really considering betting already because as I mentioned (and contrary to what you are saying), it feels like the lines are in some narrowing tendency.

The reason why it may be "wrong" to bet early is because you are tying up capital that could be used for other stuff for 2 months. But it's really not a big deal, especially if it's only $50 or some small amount that you won't be immediately needing.

The advantage of betting early is if there is more betting interest on Lawler than Askren, the odds for Lawler may get worse as the fight approaches. Of course this goes both ways-- if everybody wants to bet Askren you will get better odds on Lawler. But I can't imagine too many people are lining up to lay 3-1 odds on Askren.
 
Ok, thanks guys. It does confirm that it is a matter of capital being tied and nothing else.
Since I do see lines tightening, I think it is a operation.
Watching tape to confirm my bet but I think I'll do it this week.
 
Just bought Lawler at +250.
I think it would be a good deal even at + 100 (a directional bet), but at +250 this feels ridiculous.

Maybe Askren gets Lawler down (likely), but the fight is not over if he does, far from it.
I really think Askren gets TKOd by uppercut or knee coming in. He has never faced a striker of the caliber of Lawler. We'll see how much of that pressure remains when he gets tagged a few times.

I am very, very confident about this one.
 
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