nah, though Trump is the clear frontrunner, Rubio and Cruz are just as likely to win. But Jeb's hopes are gone and I doubt he wins even one state. And I say this as someone with tremendous amounts of pity towards him.
right, but have you been keeping up with the fivethirtyeight projections? They have the most accurate odds and Bush is at 1-6% in all the upcoming states. It paints a bleak picture.
Agreed, Jeb is completely finished. He's simply not even liked by his own party, he has an extremely high unfavorable rating. He's not even VP material. What could possibly turn things around for him at this point? He's one of the least charismatic candidates running.
The path for Jeb! is this:
When is all this supposed to happen by? Jeb is polling at 4% nationally, he doesn't have time to play a long game. If he doesn't show signs of life in SC he's already going to be facing calls to drop out. And the chances that the GOP would try to ram another Bush down our throat after 2000 are zero, especially with the anti-establishment sentiment we've been seeing. Jeb is so disliked and damaged at this point that I don't even think the "establishment" vote would all get behind him.
It has to happen by the convention. Bush won't be dropping out anytime soon. He's got a lot of money. He's getting the whole dynasty on the campaign trail now. Even if he won't win, at this point he sees himself as fighting for the party against Trump. He'll stick around long past when he's not viable. He has the resources to play the long game. And that's the only game he can play because he has zero momentum and almost no delegates. He has to pick up enough that, if Rubio and Kasich were to drop out, he can pick up the majority of their support and get into a contested convention.
The party will make it very clear to him soon that he is not in fact fighting for his party and is only hurting it. Unless he picks up some momentum by Nevada at the latest he's gone IMO.
