Late rounds: are they solely Cains to win?

I've read a lot about the advanced rounds being where Cain would have his best advantage, dually argued as cardio being a Cain strength and dos Santos' apparently waning lethality after the first round.

While I'm not questioning the great cardio shown by Cain, I do have to wonder about a fighter who's never been in a late fight. Cain has two fights that required him to exercise his gas tank, both one-sided smashings of Big Ben and Cheik Kongo. Otherwise, his frenetic pace has overwhelmed most opponents before the first break, and Cain has walked off barely breaking a sweat.

Meanwhile, Junior has a similar finishing record, most dusted in the 1st, a few 2nd round finishes and one sided decisions. The last time he has seemed somewhat tired was after nuking Nelson's head for two and a half rounds. Since then, despite a spirited 3rd round stamp on Carwin and a cruising win against Mir where Junior became noticeably more dangerous as the fight continued, he is still haunted by a few tired breathes against the ever-game, but dominated Roy. I would argue that while JdS is the most dangerous 1st round heavyweight, his opponents that do pass into the second show the effects of his cardio sapping body shots than they ever affect him.

My question to you, is that if this fight does enter the 4th round tied 2-2, do you believe that Cain's cardio advantage will outweigh the punishment that Junior typically brings?

I think that this fight ends up as a early 2nd round KO for Junior, after hurting him in the first. Unlike many people it seems, I think that unless Cain wins big in the first round, that his cardio won't come into play as much into the later rounds as his fans and team are hoping, even in a close fight. The lead up shows an in shape Junior, and he has always been an astute body puncher, who limits the amount of engagements per round through distance and counter punching. I believe that unless Cain is chasing Junior, he will have a hard time approaching, which I detailed in the following thread if you want to check it out:

http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/problems-cain-can-push-jds-cardio-win-argument-2340979/

 

JDS 1st round KO

 

no, i think the unified rules allows both contestants to win late rounds

 

Cain Submission 1st round.

 

It really depends how much damage he takes. Getting punched in the face and body can take your energy away, but he might be the guy to have more energy in the later rounds, if it actually makes it past the 3rd that is.

 

I like both Cain and JDS.
However, if the fight goes beyond 3 rounds, the pendulum shifts heavily towards Cain.
I followed his Collegiate Wrestling career. Cain is a big guy who does not tire.
Unless JDS summons up some phoenominal cardio Cain will strengthen as the fight progresses.

 

No. Cain's excellent conditioning, which in itself has never really been proved inside the octagon, has no correlation to JDS' conditioning, which has also never been proven, mostly because both fighters generally beat the living hell out of their opponents in the opening rounds. Its anybodies guess who will have more left in the gas tank if it goes to the championship rounds. My guess is the guy who has taken more damage will also be more fatigued in that scenario.

 

This is a HW title fight, I'll be surprised if it makes it to round 3.

The only time JDS slows down is when he spends a round beating the hell out of his opponents, which usually leaves his opponents more tired than he is.

 

I could see it going a bit like the JDS Carwin fight, with Cain more active than Shane was but getting tagged all night all the same.

But JDS by 2nd rd tko is the most probable outcome.

 

Cain has been the distance once and, although he wad throwing punches en masse, he did it withuot power (don't have other explaination for not finishing Kongo with 60+ punches in one round). So I guess he was tired.
And in a 5-rounder, after taking some hard body shots and spending energy on takedowns (I guess JDS will stuff at least some) it's anybody's guess who will be more tired.

Whatever Cain's training partners say about his cardio, I think JDS and Cain are pretty even in cardio department if we judge by their Octagon performance.

 

I favor Cain in the 3-5 round because of the cardio.

 

Pretty much my point. I don't understand the disparity in perceived levels of their cardio when they are both putting on ass whippings.

 

The longer the fight goes, the better chance Cain has of winning

 

Great reasoning

 

Cain's cardio is hugely unproven.

Joe Rogan goes on and on about how good his cardio is. The fact is, Cain has only been into the third round [and to a decision] once in his entire career. And as Joe is quick to point out, being on top of someone and beating them up without much resistance isn't going to gas you out.

There is nothing that points to Cain having better cardio than JDS, and nothing that points to Cain having an advantage if the fight goes to the later rounds.

 

If Cain is able to avoid JDS for 3 rounds, maybe. We know he isn't a master of striking defense, so, it's unlikely.

 

If it gets to the later rounds it means that they will have fought for 15 minutes at Cain's pace...

I don't see how JDS will be able to hang after that.