Khazmat opens as a -165 favorite over Leon Edwards

[Richard Fannin]

Oranges and apples my friend. You are seriously comparing Khamzat to someone like Pico it doesn't intellectually make sense.

They're both young MMA fighters of almost same age, both started fighting in 2017 in famous gyms with great expectations because of their freestyle wrestling pedigrees, and from getting lots of hype from their training partners.

It's not that far-fetched to make a comparison between the 2, and considering that they took different approaches to their MMA career, I'm curious as to where they will both stand in 4 or 5 years.

 

[SKITZADACTYL]

pretty dumb, never bet on anything before but i might have to start.

 

[dominion]

I get that Chimaev hasn't fought top tie fighters yet but that's the whole point about ranking up. You'll always fight nobodies until you fight a somebody. Edwards is that somebody. If you feel that he should fight more nobodies before he gets to Edwards then go fuck yourself. Seriously, fuck off, because there's no point in making that argument just because you're not interested. It's a you thing. Most people want to see it. Which is what the UFC placates to.

What the Chimaev hate wagon fails to acknowledge is the eye test. He is absolutely dominating every opponent he faces. Reminiscent of a young Jon Jones blowing through the competition before he became champ. I remember all the Shogun fanboys saying he shouldn't even be fighting Shogun because he is dominating cans. The eyes test does work, and skills do translate. As does the talent. From one fighter to the next. If you know what to look for. Which means removing bias.

I guarantee you that the odds makers know what to look for. Their livelihood depends on it. They are not perfect so they don't get it right every time but They are professionals in that regard. While you're just some consumer douche.

 

[Bowel-forged Stool]

What were the betting odds for Leon vs Masvidal?

 

[IsNormal]

If he finishes the number #3 while being ranked #15 (a generous ranking considering he never fought anybody at WW), that would indeed be one of the biggest upsets in recent years.

Biggest rank jump maybe. But not the biggest surprise.

Gven how many people have long been arguing Khamzat will win - it would not be a stunning surprise out of nowhere if he did.
Compared to many other wins no one saw coming.

Just in terms of betting odds I'm sure there would be plenty of random fights that haven't got as high of a profile but technically have been way bigger upsets.

 

[DestinedAussie]

Yeah, logically he should be a heavy favorite.

Yeah that is what I think. Not saying Leon will 100% win but this is such a huge step up that it is hard to see why he isn't favourite.

 

[Richard Fannin]

What the Chimaev hate wagon fails to acknowledge is the eye test. He is absolutely dominating every opponent he faces. Reminiscent of a young Jon Jones blowing through the competition before he became champ. I remember all the Shogun fanboys saying he shouldn't even be fighting Shogun because he is dominating cans.

Jon Jones was walking through guys like =>
Ryan Bader (12-0 at the time in pro fights + 3-0 in TUF),
Matt Hamill (8-1 at the time since he beat Bisping),
Vlady "the Janitor" Matyushenko (11-1 in his last 12, 23-4 overall, super tough and respected veteran),
former HW title contender Brandon Vera (11-4, coming off a decision against Couture that almost everyone gave to Vera)
and Stephan Bonnar (12-4 before the fight, only losses to 3 elite guys).

(And JJ's other 2 UFC bouts were against 11-2 Jake O'Brien [only 2 losses against Cain & AA] and 5-0 Andre Gusmao)

When you look at Khamzat's competition in comparison... bunch of randoms from Brace FC, equivalent to Jones first 6 fights before getting in the UFC if you're generous.
Then in the UFC...
John Phillips was 1-3 in his last 4 (now 22-10 overall);
Rhys McKee, that was his first UFC fight, was 12-6 beforehand, lost his only other UFC fight since the Kemzhat one.
Meerschaert isn't a can, but he was 2-4 in his last 6 before getting smeshed, 31-13 overall. Ok journeyman?

That's pretty damn far from Jones competition pre-Shogun, power level wise

Biggest rank jump maybe. But not the biggest surprise.

Well, I did mean upset it like "biggest rank jump" in some time, so I agree with your post.
Such a disparity of rankings between the number 3 and his opponent ranked #15 is already impressive, but if you consider that the #3 is the underdog, it really shows how crazy this situation is ^^

Can't wait for this bout, haven't been pumped like that about a prospect's debut at high level in a long, long time.
But if Edwards becomes a big underdog just before the fight, I'll just have to drop something on him...

 

[No Skill Gap]

I'm not gonna argue if Leon is great or will win or anything like that but I'm just gonna give an example.

Vinctene Luque had 14 UFC fights and has beaten 11 of his opponents via finish.

Besides his UFC debut - the only UFC fighters who beat him were Wonderboy and Leon via decision.
I think that shows there's plenty of possibility for someone to defeat tons of fighters in impressive fashion and still get stuffed by a high calibere point fighter.

Yes - you can argue Luque lost before the UFC and he lost his UFC debut and Khamzat is undefeated and that makes all the difference. But can't you imagine that it would be very possible that someone like Luque could have the same potential but just luck out and not lose any of his first few fights, finish everyone at the start of their career - only to be defeated later on?

Okay but you realize that Leon Edwards beat Luque 29-28 on everyone's scorecards and every media members' scorecards virtually, in what was Luque's 5th ever fight in the UFC and 2nd fight against actual UFC level comp.

It would be the equivalent of saying Conor McGregor has a top notch quality win over 2nd place FW GOAT and FW champion Max Holloway. Without providing the context that McGregor beat him in Holloway's 6th UFC fight and after Holloway came off a loss to Bermudez.

You can't just retroactively track wins like that. Otherwise, another example...something like Bader beating Fedor counts fully? Obviously it does not.

 

[No Skill Gap]

HAHA! Im fucking done, mate. MY mental gymnastics, when ive detailed multiple times the flaws in your logic that you've done nothing to disprove. Whatever you say, bud. AND you've still not mentioned who this make-believe ranked middleweight is that you created for Khamzat. You're really not doing a good job letting people know you live in this world.


Talking about being emotional, but someone's been a real salty Sally about that schizo comment, and it's not me.

But here, let me olive branch something. I didn't call you a schizo. I was using the universal "you" just like you were doing. You said, "you could make an argument.." I recognized you weren't specifically meaning i could. So when i said, "you could if.." I meant the same. Relax

So you're dodging the sig bet, ight then guess you aren't that confident in a guy you're adamantly trying to convince me deserves to be favored over the unknown hype job that I'm siding with. That's weird.

 

[kflo]

I said schizophrenic because any other thought would be born out of a complete delusion from reality. Edwards should be the favorite. And you did say something about Khamzat's victories that you still haven't explained..


Edward's rank and win streak is overrated, but only in the sense that he definitely did deserve it when he first got it, but has since not progressed while other people are still fighting and winning (arguable, as I list below). Any drop in ranking he should have from where he is right now would only be due to guys winning in his absence.

Why he earned that rank: He's got an 8 fight win streak. He choked out Tumenov who was #14 at the time. (Tumenov had just lost to Gunnar Nelson after a 5 fight win streak). He's Luque's only loss in a string of 11 fights. He didn't beat "the same" Cowboy Conor beat. The Cowboy he beat was more comparable to the Cowboy Till beat. Who was still good enough to knock out Yancy Meideros, Alex Hernandez, tap Perry, and beat Iaquinta, which was good enough to maintain #11 at welterweight. Gunnar was still good enough to tap Oliveira at the time to earn a #13 ranking and to save himself from falling too far after being blinded by Ponz. And the cap of that streak was RDA. Now, I realize RDA fell far since, but really only for losing to top guys. You have to think of where RDA was at the time Edwards beat him. He had moved up to welterweight while still highly ranked at lightweight. RDA went backwards for welterweight opponents, dominating #11 Saffedine, #6 Magny, & #2 Lawler. Think of him as washed or undersized now if you want, but he deserved his position. He fought Colby in a competitive fight for the interim title, then lost to Usman. Literally the two best guys at the weight. Then he rebounds with a welterweight victory of #7 lightweight Kevin Lee. RDA very much deserved to be #4 at the time, so Edwards beating him very much deserved taking the #4 spot from him.

So the question is, since Edwards was #4 since July 2019, what welterweight got a win / streak to surpass him? Covington remained above him for beating Lawler & Woodley. Masvidal remained above him too, by beating Nate Diaz. (Notice how those are opponents who, when looked at with as strict of a magnifying glass as the one you used against Edwards' competition, are also washed and shit). Burns rocketed past him by beating 4 opponents; Kunchenko, Gunnar, Maia, and Woodley. Completely fair. Wonderboy maybe by beating Luque and Neal, but that Showtime knockout was still pretty fresh for people (You know showtime, he's that "tweener" who "aged terribly" using your words). Woodley's on a 3 fight losing streak to Usman, Burns, & Colby. All top dogs, but he's getting embarrassed each time. At least RDA took a few rounds from Colby. Maia's current run over Good, Martin (severely underrated), and Askren, before being derailed by Burns maybe should earn him a spot above Edwards. Chiesa's 3-0 at welterweight with wins over the corpses of Diego and Condit, and then had that win over RDA right after Edwards, so Edwards just CAN'T be behind him.

So where should Edwards be then? #6 or 7 at the worst? Sure, a big problem with WW is it's stagnancy, cuz the people winning don't challenge other winners, and the losers are the guys who actually fight top competitions (RDA, Woodley, Lawler). But you really can't put Edwards any lower than that, and even if that is his new position, putting this fight together with Khamzat is still a fucking sham and he should be favored.

it's sort of silly to say someone "should" be favored. the book makers only care about making money and getting the right money in. if you're saying YOU think edwards will WIN, that's a different story. nowhere in your post though did you say that's what you think or why you would think it.

 

[kflo]

Jon Jones was walking through guys like =>
Ryan Bader (12-0 at the time in pro fights + 3-0 in TUF),
Matt Hamill (8-1 at the time since he beat Bisping),
Vlady "the Janitor" Matyushenko (11-1 in his last 12, 23-4 overall, super tough and respected veteran),
former HW title contender Brandon Vera (11-4, coming off a decision against Couture that almost everyone gave to Vera)
and Stephan Bonnar (12-4 before the fight, only losses to 3 elite guys).

(And JJ's other 2 UFC bouts were against 11-2 Jake O'Brien [only 2 losses against Cain & AA] and 5-0 Andre Gusmao)

When you look at Khamzat's competition in comparison... bunch of randoms from Brace FC, equivalent to Jones first 6 fights before getting in the UFC if you're generous.
Then in the UFC...
John Phillips was 1-3 in his last 4 (now 22-10 overall);
Rhys McKee, that was his first UFC fight, was 12-6 beforehand, lost his only other UFC fight since the Kemzhat one.
Meerschaert isn't a can, but he was 2-4 in his last 6 before getting smeshed, 31-13 overall. Ok journeyman?

That's pretty damn far from Jones competition pre-Shogun, power level wise


Well, I did mean upset it like "biggest rank jump" in some time, so I agree with your post.
Such a disparity of rankings between the number 3 and his opponent ranked #15 is already impressive, but if you consider that the #3 is the underdog, it really shows how crazy this situation is ^^

Can't wait for this bout, haven't been pumped like that about a prospect's debut at high level in a long, long time.
But if Edwards becomes a big underdog just before the fight, I'll just have to drop something on him...

after the bonnar fight, jones was a pretty big favorite against all of them. he was -700 vs the janitor.
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/jon-jones-bones

 

[Richard Fannin]

after the bonnar fight, jones was a pretty big favorite against all of them. he was -700 vs the janitor.
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/jon-jones-bones

Indeed, and he was a big favorite against Shogun too. I remember at the time, it was the Janitor win that made me decide that Jon Jones was "for real" ^^
I had always been a big fan of Matyushenko, I was hoping he would at least put on a valliant effort...

Still, Jones' road to the Shogun bout can't be compared to Borz' road to the Edwards fight. That's all I was saying; but since I have a serious problem with abridging my own posts, I always end up posting giant rants. <{CMPALM}>

 

[kflo]

Indeed, and he was a big favorite against Shogun too. I remember at the time, it was the Janitor win that made me decide that Jon Jones was "for real" ^^
I had always been a big fan of Matyushenko, I was hoping he would at least put on a valliant effort...

Still, Jones' road to the Shogun bout can't be compared to Borz' road to the Edwards fight. That's all I was saying; but since I have a serious problem with abridging my own posts, I always end up posting giant rants. <{CMPALM}>

yeah. my only point was that jones obvious talent was making him a favorite long before his accomplishments warranted it.

the most obvious example is brock. brock was favored against mir as a 1-0 fighter. favored against heath as a 1-1 fighter. favored against randy as a 2-1 fighter. and obviously it wasn't crazy that he was favored.

 

[dragonsfly]

They're both young MMA fighters of almost same age, both started fighting in 2017 in famous gyms with great expectations because of their freestyle wrestling pedigrees, and from getting lots of hype from their training partners.

It's not that far-fetched to make a comparison between the 2, and considering that they took different approaches to their MMA career, I'm curious as to where they will both stand in 4 or 5 years.

Pico doesn't have the tools nor credentials to be used as a comparison it is absolutely ludicrous. Pico doesn't even have striking or power. His wrestling is subpar compared to Khamzat. Whos also much stronger then pico.

I get that Chimaev hasn't fought top tie fighters yet but that's the whole point about ranking up. You'll always fight nobodies until you fight a somebody. Edwards is that somebody. If you feel that he should fight more nobodies before he gets to Edwards then go fuck yourself. Seriously, fuck off, because there's no point in making that argument just because you're not interested. It's a you thing. Most people want to see it. Which is what the UFC placates to.

What the Chimaev hate wagon fails to acknowledge is the eye test. He is absolutely dominating every opponent he faces. Reminiscent of a young Jon Jones blowing through the competition before he became champ. I remember all the Shogun fanboys saying he shouldn't even be fighting Shogun because he is dominating cans. The eyes test does work, and skills do translate. As does the talent. From one fighter to the next. If you know what to look for. Which means removing bias.

I guarantee you that the odds makers know what to look for. Their livelihood depends on it. They are not perfect so they don't get it right every time but They are professionals in that regard. While you're just some consumer douche.

I can't wait to see what some will say after he runs over Leon and Leading upto Khamzat - Usman fight

 

[Domitian]

If I were to bet on Khamzat in this fight I would be worried about the damage Covid has done to Khamzats lungs.

 

[Ace70 V2]

These odds are disrespectful as fuck to Edwards

 

[Domitian]

Leon has to be the value bet here.

Easily. Who knows what damage Covid did to Khamzat.

 

[Mayonnaiseandjelly]

Why is Leon Edwards supposed to be good again? He has literally beaten no one.

His best wins are over tweener RDA and Cerrone, which has aged terribly. He beat Luque nearly 4 years ago, and outside of that he's beaten Barbaerna and Gunner Nelson? lol?

I think you could argue Edwards was/is as much of a hype job as Khazmat is. At least Khazmat fought a ranked guy at MW and knocked him dead. Leon has more volume of quality wins, sure, but it's not like he's even beaten a top 10 guy...ever. Or I guess Luque is a fringe top 10 guy, who he beat 4 years ago when he probably was fringe top 15.

Uh that’s a good ass list. Meanwhile kamzat has actually Fought no one

 

[Paolo Delutis]

How?.. That cant be right

 

[No Skill Gap]

Uh that’s a good ass list. Meanwhile kamzat has actually Fought no one

He one punched Gerald Meerschaert in under 20 seconds. He completely dominated two regional/fringe UFC talents prior to that.

If you read anything I wrote you would understand that nowhere did I say Khazmat Chimaev has a great resume' with many quality wins or even that his resume' is better than Leon Edwards.

The difference here is very obvious though. Khazmat was just moved to 14th in the division where as Leon Edwards is and has been ranked 3rd despite not fighting for 1.5 years. And I am also not saying "Edwards (or Khazmat) should definitely be favored!"

What I am saying is that Leon Edwards' ranking and resume' are extremely suspect and overrated. You can do mental gymnastics like the Mohawk Bandito guy did with Khazmat as well, watch ready?

Gerald Meerschaert was 4-4 prior to fighting Khazmat Chimaev, he had just finished Derron Winn prior to losing to Henisch. His only 4 losses were to Derek Holland, Thiago Santos, Ian Henisch, and Jack Hermansson. Those guys are all top 5-10 fighters besides Henisch who's 15th. Then Khazmat punched him in the head once, as opposed to fence fucking him to a 29-28 as Edwards typically does.

To say Edwards wins are a "good ass list" is near egregious to me. That's bullshit lol. He has one single top 10 win ever, and it's over a LW RDA who was 1-2 in his last 3 fights prior to fighting Edwards. Sorry, but I just have to disagree strongly. Edwards might be actually good, he might be pretty good, clearly he is "good" to an extent to win 8 in a row. But there's a difference between guys putting up win streaks over middling competition and elite fighters. Khazmat may be an elite fighter, we don't know. But we also don't know that about Edwards.