I think the fight with The Fighter Kevin Lee, showed how this fight will go, with the exception of khabib not having staph, and gassing. As well as khabib not sitting in guard or going for positions that put him in danger of losing top control.
Tony bloodys up lots of guys...on the feet who want to stand and trade, or from full guard where his opponent gives space for elbows and subs by keeping thier hear up. Khabib always keeps his head tucked under the bottom guys chin and close to the body when he is in guard. There is no room for elbows or subs.
Tony is a great fighter. He is fun to watch, puts on exciting fights and would be champ if it weren't for having a generational talent like khabib in his division. Tony will tire from khabibs top pressure just like anyone else will. He has great cardio sure, but there is no one that doesn't tire.
Tony's tdd is suspect at best, and hes fighting a guy who is the best at it. The fighter Kevin Lee controlled Tony with ease until he gassed. I think Tony's biggest problem in the fight will be over confidence in his bottom game. While it is good. Him and tinfoil hat talk like they want to be taken down and are ok with it. What kind of strategy is that?? Let's let the guy do exactly what he wants to do and dictate where the fight happens...because our guys elbows and subs are good....wow that's just dumb. Khabib isnt gonna get subbed when in top control. He is not going to get elbowed when in top control. He does not put himself in positions ever to take damage from th guy on bottom. His technique is almost flawless, and using his legs to grapple and control like he does, will make it very hard for Tony to stand up.
To beat khabib he needs to be getting up every time he gets taken down instantly. Tire khabib by making him take u down or attempt to repetedly and get back up, not allowing him to gain any rest while on top. Khabib is a master at using energy efficiently. Dont give him the opportunity to do so...but instead Tony and his team want to get took down so they can show 10th planet bottom BJJ. Bad idea all around.
It's also really hard to have anyone mimic khabibs striking and movements. He is hard to hit because he is so unorthodox. His movements are unique. When they train, it's always against the same styles...orthodox striking...what most people use...thus its predictable. Fighters get used to it, and can time it and distance far better than against someone who is totally different.
While Tony's striking is also kinda unorthodox, he gets hit a lot and is relatively predictable. Khabibs gameplan will not be to stand and strike, so it doesnt really matter if he can have someone mimic Tony well is camp. He will be able to take tony down. Tony's only shot imo is to catch khabib in a scramble, since he does not have 1 punch ko power. It's highly unlikely and equates to a punchers chance odds wise.
