Kentucky Derby and Beyond (Part Deuce)

When it comes to handicapping the horses there's very few people I respect more than these two guys. Mainly because they take a completely different view than others and have introduced so many of us to herd dynamics.

 
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Finished crunching the numbers for the BC dirt races on Saturday and did so for the Juvenile today as well. Not a whole lot of appeal from a betting perspective, but maybe a couple of races that are worth taking a shot at. For the Classic I came up with these;

#5 - 21.2% = 3.7/1
#3 - 20.2% = 3.9/1
#4 - 16.3% = 5.1/1
#6 - 13.5% = 6.4/1
#9 - 11.2% = 7.9/1
#2 - 7.0% = 13.4/1
#8 - 5.6% = 16.8/1
#1 - 3.8% = 25.6/1
#7 - 1.2% = 81.9/1

I have Knicks Go on top by just a hair over Hot Rod Charlie and that's mainly because he has a decided advantage on his early pace numbers compared to the rest of the field. Knicks Go securing an early and clear lead is a scenario that could happen. But maybe, like some are suggesting, Medina Spirit can get up there and challenge him early considering Knicks Go has to go longer this time and mayb try to conserve a little early. I would imagine that that is the plan for Medina Spirit anyways. Challenge early. If so and those two hook up, that should open the race up a little for a horse to counter that early energy and I have Hot Rod Charlie, Essential Quality, and Max Player ranked the three highest when it comes to their late energy distribution. Knicks Go doesn't really offer me any value anyways as the possible favourite. Neither does Essential Quality who may also be the favourite. That pretty much leaves me still liking the #3 Hot Rod Charlie the most if he does leave the gates at somewhere close to his morning line odds. Could be sitting an ideal lone pressing/stalking trip right behind the two early leaders as well, and could get first run on the rest of the field turning for home. So I'll look to use him and then maybe try to get Max Player in one of the underneath spots somewhere if playing exotics. Not exactly a great betting race though.

I'm also going to take a flyer on a longshot in the Juvenile race today (race 9) with the #3 Oviatt Class who's 20/1 on the morning line. The favourite (#12 Corniche) looks really strong when I did the numbers for the race, but with this being an 11 horse field with inexperienced runners, I'm hoping the pace really heats up and chaos ensues. If that does happen (as it does often enough in the BC Juvenile) Oviatt Class could be one of the runners coming along late. I have him ranked 3rd overall, but as the top counter energy horse if the pace does fall apart late. May be unlikely to win, but at anything near his morning line odds I think he's worth taking a small flyer on.

Also, knowing that some of our starwalkers out there like to rock a little and are really good at showing colours, perhaps another hint can be had with the green and blue jewelry they're wearing in their latest video. o_O Hot Rod Charlie has a green roadrunner on his jock's silks (and green around the arms) and will be wearing a blue saddlecloth in tomorrow's race. Oviatt Class will also be carrying green silks and the blue saddlecloth as well in today's. A sign for good luck maybe? :confused::D If not, then we can at least enjoy a really nice cover from them again of a great song;

 
This #5 horse in the Juvenile Fillies is a bit tempting. Have it ranked 2nd of 6, but much closer to 1st than 3rd in a race with a heavy favourite. Also has the green and blue combo of colours. :confused::D 3/1 might be an okay price too. It's tempting. I'll make a small play on her just because.
 
Finished 2nd to the favourite who got an easy trip while loose on the lead and was too good.
 
Sharkey said:
Finished 2nd to the favourite who got an easy trip while loose on the lead and was too good.
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May be a appropriate song considering my pick in this race was so slow out of the gate whereas the favourite and eventual winner jumped right out of there. :rolleyes::D



 
If anyone is looking to play the Distaff tomorrow these, rather than the ML odds, should give you a better idea on what kind of prices we'll be looking at.

 
Put a little on the 3 to win and then a 12 over 3 exacta (top pace/horse and top counter) here in the Juvenile. Hoping the race opens right up, though, and produces a big payout for some people out there if not me.
 
The 12 wins the Juvenile as the favourite with the 3 running a non-threatening 5th. Ho-hum.
 
Playing the #4 Ce Ce here in the F & M Sprint. Hoping the top two hook up early and take something out of each other. Worth a shot at 6/1.
 
Ce Ce gets it done at 6/1. Very nice.
 
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Sharkey said:
Yeah, he started his stud career over there, bud. Not a bad place to start either as Japan has really developed their horse racing program in recent years and some have came over and have not ran too badly at all.
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Japanese horses are having quite the day today winning their first two Breeder Cup races ever. They haven't really even been all that close before I don't believe. But one of them won the F & M Turf earlier in the day. Then another one just pulled up a huge upset in the Distaff at 49/1. :eek: Very cool to see.

 
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Based on the doubles and other will pays, Essential Quality is looking like he'll be the clear favourite in the Classic. Probably around 2/1. Not really a surprise though. Both Knicks Go and Hot Rod Charlie may end up somewhere in the 7/2 range.
 
Debated what to play a little, but just going to stick with Hot Rod Charlie to win.
 
5, 8, 4, 3 at the line.

Knicks Go secured the clear early lead and never looked back.
 
Delta downs all I ever do is pick 3's and 4's nothing else and if i get to the final leg ill try and hedge LOL I pick my horses randomly like I dont buy a book or magazine just random numbers and names race 9 I need the 1 4 or 10

1 wins me 334
4 wins me 65
10 wins me 147

DELTA DOWNS
RACE 7
P3
$.50
R73-5
R81
R91410
BET TOTAL:$4.50

Put 5$ on WPS on the 5 so a bet of 15$ on that as a hedge so to say
 
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