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Wow nice... Didn't expect Gaethje to be sich a heavy favorite, time for Cowboy to do what he usually does when people doubt him and put on an absolute clinic.
Wow- If I didnt know any better, I wouldve thought that was my post and did it while I was " sleep posting ".I'm still not sold on JG. The two best guys he faced, far and away, were Alvarez and Poirer. They both knocked him out and frankly exposed how bad his fight IQ is.
Barboza is 5-5 in his last 10 and has never been an elite fighter. Almost as a rule he loses to elite fighters. Cowboy also put him away in the first round, so keep that in mind.
Michael Johnson has an abysmal journeyman record and he had JG doing the chicken dance.
I think Cowboy probably weathers some storm, then batters Justin.
I think Al Iaquinta is a tougher fight for Gaethje. I know Cerrone recently beat him, but it's a classic "styles make fights" thing that keeps MMA Math from working. Al Iaquinta has never been KO'd and has the chin and survival instincts to weather Justin's storm and take him into deep waters...especially in a 5-round fight.
Naw. Iaquinta is slow and doesn’t throw enough. You have to go to war with Ghatje and Al isn’t that guy.
You don't have to go to war....that's simply playing Justin's game. But Al would have to be less passive than he was vs. Cerrone. If he could catch Gaethje with a few surprise takedowns and slow down the pace, that may be a really good strategy.
Al isn’t taking Gaethje down. You need volume to defeat Justin. Al doesn’t have that. Plus he head hunts almost exclusively, which won’t work with Gaethje shell guard. Where did this overrating of Al come from?
Seems like a bit of a “gimme” for old JG. But Donald is a gamer. So, you never know. I’ll be rooting for Justin, though.
That helps prove my point. Cowboy's chin gets weaker every fight. He'd probably have a lot better chance if he were Gaethje's age (28) and hadn't eaten so many body and head shots. Yes, he went 3 rounds with Lawler, but Lawler has only looked good for 90 seconds vs. Askren since his 2015 fight with Condit (and even then, both those fighters appeared to be fading from their primes). Look at Till, Masvidal, Pettis, Nate Diaz, RDA, etc. vs. Cerrone. Gaethje might not be as good or well-rounded as some of them, but he clearly has the power and pressure that's always been Cerron's weakness.
Don't let what you want to happen (a Gaethje loss) cloud your judgement. I'm not a big fan of Gaethje either