I just may get sick and throw up if I hear the phrase "closing the distance" one more time.
No disrespect to Jack Slack's recent article about Jon Jones' striking ability, but what Jack's analysis mostly overlooks is that Jon's ability to use his kicks to keep opponents "at distance" is primarily reliant upon ALL of his previous opponents being AFRAID of being taken down or clinch-thrown by Jon
Would Jon be a K-1 champ? Not a chance. Why? Because his threat of TD's, top control and hellbows from the ground don't exist in K-1.
Oh yeah, I forgot -- Jon can outbox the Klitschko brothers in boxing too, according to some people. LOL.
Question: What's the real reason Jon's opponents have a hard time closing distance?
Answer: Jon's TD threats, not his reach advantage.
FACT: Most of Jon's previous opponents were only looking to close distance quickly in "short bursts" hoping to fire off a few punches, then retreat back to safety again. That's why they constantly "reset" and stand on the outside, getting picked apart. They were scared shitless of Jon's clinch game and TD's.
DC is different.
Even a stuffed TD will enable DC to clinch with Jon, he doesn't have to "reset" after a missed TD by retreating back to kicking distance. DC doesn't need world class footwork and boxing to "get inside". That's bunk. Just like Cain didn't need world class boxing to get inside of JDS whenever he wanted to.
DC just needs good boxing and footwork to setup TD attempts, nothing more. He already has that.
If an elite clincher is willing to absorb a strike to get a clinch then you can't stop it.
FACT: Nobody can stop Rousey from clinching. Not even great strikers. Not even Greg Jackson's gameplan allowed Sarah Kaufman to keep Ronda at distance with her superior striking. Sarah got clowned by an elite clincher who's willing to take a punch to get the clinch. Same will happen with Holly Holm.
Jon Jones ain't Mark Hunt, he ain't gonna KO somebody with 1 punch when they're closing distance.
Question: Why couldn't Jon's previous opponents close distance with Jon?
Answer: They were not elite clinchers and we're too afraid of being taken down. Jon could control them in the clinch, elbow them from the clinch, or even throw them off and force them to reset.
But DC is different.
You can't write an intelligent striking article about JBJ without using his threat of TD's as "context" for his striking success. Otherwise you're basically implying that Jon Jones could be K-1 world champ right now, which is bunk.
Nearly every Sherdogger "thinks" that if DC shoots for a TD and Jon stuffs it, DC must then return to "distant range" and wade through more kicks & strikes to try another TD. Rinse and repeat. All fight long.
FACT: DC won't be letting go of Jon and "resetting" himself after stuffed TD's, he'll keep clinching. Nor is Jon strong enough of a wrestler to throw DC off of him. Cain didn't let go of JDS very often, he kept grinding him and made it a war of attrition. Cain got his face cut up badly but he still kept clinching. DC plans to do the same.
Javier Mendez has already said they've learned what NOT TO DO from watching Rashad vs. Jones. He's already said that DC will be forcing Jon to carry his weight the whole fight. Same as Cain.
AKA's gameplan can only be stopped in one of 3 ways:
1) Jon must outwrestle DC and be able to physically throw him off when he clinches -- forcing DC to "reset" at long range where Jon can kick him again.
2) Jon must outclinch DC and be able to trip/throw him down, to gain a TD of his own.
3) Jon must have better cardio and outlast DC's non stop clinch-fest, and hope that in the later rounds DC is too tired to fight effectively.
FACT: Jon may stop a few TD's but he's not talented enough to physically throw DC off of him in the clinch.
FACT: Jon couldn't even out-muscle Gus from the clinch. Jon tried hard to out-muscle Gus from the clinch and to throw him down, but he couldn't.
FACT: In the 4th round when Gus got rocked with that elbow, he ran away but Jon followed him and initiated a clinch. Jon got his hands wrapped around Gus and still couldn't take him down even though Gus was rocked badly.
Jon's clinch game isn't world class like DC's is.
I'm not saying it's impossible for Jon to win. I'm just saying that it won't be a striking battle conducted "at distance" with Jon using his 13 inch reach advantage to keep DC at bay with knee kicks. That's just stupid. It will be a hard fought clinch battle just like Cain vs. JDS and it will be a bloody war of attrition with both guys taking blows.
Maybe, if a miracle happens, Jon's cardio can withstand this war better than DC's cardio -- and maybe Jon will win.
But based on how tired Jon was in the championship rounds against Gus [where he wasn't even forced to clinch] I'd say Jon's cardio won't be able to withstand an entire fight of clinching with DC while carrying his weight all fight long.
DC trains with Cain and they've been gameplanning this fight for a long time.
I imagine DC's been clinch fighting for 5 or 6 rounds in practice several times per week going all out and pushing the limits of his cardio beyond anything he thinks possible for Jon.
He also trains wrestling with an Olympic gold medalist who's known as a living legend, somebody who's much physically stronger than Jon in the clinch.
Cardio is made in practice, not in real fights. The fact that Sherdoggers haven't seen DC's cardio is not proof that he lacks cardio. It only means that DC has never had to use Cain's gameplan to win a fight before. That's because Mir and Nelson could be easily beaten with safer gameplans.
FACT: Jon's long legs make an easy target to catch or grab for TD's. And Jon's high center of gravity means he's easier to take down. Even Gus caught a few of Jon's kicks.
In summary, Jon's 13 inch reach advantage will be a NON FACTOR in this fight.
