International John Bolton torpedoed the Trump/Kim Hanoi summit

[lfd0311]

So clueless about the deal it´s becoming pretty funny.

Do you even realize that your entire argument is at best talking points? You don't even seem to know what the agreement actually was, that's why you've taken up this arguement:

You are the one who uses "your feels" as an argument over experts. Sorry that you don´t like that being pointed out.

This is the type of argument someone makes who is arguing from a point of ignorance. You went directly to this argument instead of attempting to defend your points in any way. That's not something someone informed on the topic does. It's someone defending points that make them feel good (your projection here is stunning) and not points that they really know anything about.

Iran actually had material for 10 bombs by 2015, before the deal was effectively in place, and could produce them in 2-3 months. After the deal started being implemented they were left with no viable weapons grade material and a timeframe of 2-3 years to even get the production facilities online.

The restructuring of the Natanz facillity (and Fordo) was an explicit part of the deal. The centrifuges they were left with were the oldest models not capable of producing enriched uranium anywhere near the amounts needed. Their stockpile was reduced to 300kg at 3.67% enrichment (you need over 90% for weapons grade). Can´t be exceeded before 2031.
The Fordo facility has been completely restructured.
Their heavy water reactor was destroyed, so they couldn´t produce weapons grade plutonium.

They didn´t get a 15 year window to sell nuclear material (most of it was shipped to Russia ASAP) with the only option being war, that´s just plain false and ignorant. There was a 15 year limit before Natanz can even change their centrifuges from the oldest models that they were left with. They have a 24 day window to comply with requests for access by the IAEA..

Let me just break down for you all the ways in which you're flat wrong here.
While the Restructuring of Nantaz and Fordow were key parts of the agreement, you're leaving out some key factors. The Iranians hadn't been enriching uranium at Fordow for a few years by the time of the agreement. The agreement "restricted" Iran to enriching uranium only at Nantaz until 2024, the only place it was currently enriching uranium, and in no less than 5060 centrifuges at one time. Again, the reason I bring that number up is important. They settled on that number because that number was the maximum number of centrifuges Iran had had working at any one time in the previous few years, which by the way enabled them to build up that massive stockpile. So like I said, this deal prevented Iran from doing literally nothing it was not already doing, while giving them billions of dollars in the process.

https://www.nti.org/learn/facilities/165/

Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) is Iran's second pilot enrichment plant (the first is the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz). The site was originally a tunnel facility associated with Iran's paramilitary organization, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and is located buried in a mountain near the city of Qom. The facility is divided into two enrichment halls; each is designed to hold eight IR-1 gas centrifuge cascades with a total of approximately 3,000 centrifuges. [1] Following the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015, the FFEP was restructured as a research center under monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). [2] 1,044 gas centrifuges remain installed in one wing of the facility, with IR-1 cascades installed separately for stable isotope production. According to the IAEA, Iran has not used the plant for uranium enrichment since reporting began in November 2013. [3]

That is of course unless you just don't believe the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

Or if you don't believe the Institute for Science and International Security's report on Iran, either:

http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/IAEA_Iran_Report_Analysis_18Feb2010.pdf

As of January 31, 2010 the number of centrifuges enriching uranium at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) stands at 3,772, down from 3,936 which Iran has been operating since February 2009. Iran has installed an additional 2624 centrifuges. This is down from the 4,756 centrifuges previously reported as installed but not enriching. The report notes that some 11 cascades are being dismantled.

Or their report the following year:

https://isis-online.org/uploads/isi..._Report_ISIS_analysis_25Feb2011_final-new.pdf

The average monthly production of LEU at the FEP has stayed at about 133 kg per month of LEU hexafluoride (for the last reporting period we noted it was 133 kg of LEU hexafluoride and the one prior to that it was 116 kg of LEU hexafluoride). As of February 20, 2011, Iran was enriching in 31 cascades, containing a total of 5,184 IR-1 centrifuges. The IAEA noted that some of these centrifuges "were possibly not being fed" with uranium hexafluoride. The number of cascades enriching increased slightly from 29 cascades, with 4,816 IR-1 centrifuges enriching, at the end of the last reporting period. Some 3,000 centrifuges are installed but not being fed with uranium hexafluoride, according to this report. The total number of centrifuges installed is given as about 8,000 centrifuges, which represents a decrease from the number installed at the end of the last reporting period. Figures 1-3 illustrate these trends at Natanz.

Iran built that stockpile in just a few years using almost exclusively the IR-1s. The deal allowed them to keep producing enriched uranium at the exact same rate they always had, using the IR-1s, the oldest and most obselete of their centrifuges, and allowed them to keep testing and developing the IR-8s that would have enriched uranium at 20-40 times the rate of the IR-1s. That is irrefuatable. That isn't emotion talking, you're just wrong.

They have no working pathway to weapons grade Uranium.
They have no working pathway to weapons grade plutonium.

The framework of the JCPOA Iran would be allowed to keep 660 pounds of enriched uranium. You need about 55 to make a warhead. That means that under the agreement they were allowed to keep enough to make roughly 12 warheads and to continue producing enriched uranium at the same exact rate they always had while we were not allowed to search any of their military bases or their secret nuclear test sites to ensure they weren't storing EU there. And in return we were going to give them 150 billion dollars, and allow them to sell EU to Russia and China. So Iran's path to both of those things was simply adhering to the agreement. That's what you're not understanding.

They are not producing more at the same rate, since they can´t fucking produce weapons grade materials anymore and the stockpile is reduced to 300kg of low enriched uranium.

This statement is so naively incorrect it actually hurt my feelings.

You have the facts of the Iran deal completely jumbled. Be it willfull ignorance or partisan hackery combined with bad sources, it´s cringeworthy either way how badly you have the facts mixed up. You clearly don´t understand the Iran deal, the difference in producing nuclear energy vs weapons programs or pretty much anything to do with this matter.

This one did too. The level of projection you're doing here is appalling. You aren't a dumb guy. Stop just accepting what ever Left Wing news source you read first as gospel and actually read some non-political sources for your information from time to time. You're so incredibly wrong about this.

But Trump should be defended for getting jack shit done in NK because hey it´s a new approach (one others were smart enough not to take)
While the Iran deal should be shit on despite it actually working so we can go back to warmongering. lol

WHO IS DEFENDING TRUMP AND WHO IS WARMONGERING?

Since you're obviously going to ignore the bulk of my post, since the information won't penetrate your blind partisanship, could you at least take your blinders off for a moment and take a stab at objectively anwering this one for me? Nobody is defending Trump. The JCPOA, as has just been demonstrated, was a garbage deal that was justly scrapped. Thinking that doesn't make you a Republican.

 

[Prutfis]

Do you even realize that your entire argument is at best talking points? You don't even seem to know what the agreement actually was, that's why you've taken up this arguement:



This is the type of argument someone makes who is arguing from a point of ignorance. You went directly to this argument instead of attempting to defend your points in any way. That's not something someone informed on the topic does. It's someone defending points that make them feel good (your projection here is stunning) and not points that they really know anything about.




Let me just break down for you all the ways in which you're flat wrong here.
While the Restructuring of Nantaz and Fordow were key parts of the agreement, you're leaving out some key factors. The Iranians hadn't been enriching uranium at Fordow for a few years by the time of the agreement. The agreement "restricted" Iran to enriching uranium only at Nantaz until 2024, the only place it was currently enriching uranium, and in no less than 5060 centrifuges at one time. Again, the reason I bring that number up is important. They settled on that number because that number was the maximum number of centrifuges Iran had had working at any one time in the previous few years, which by the way enabled them to build up that massive stockpile. So like I said, this deal prevented Iran from doing literally nothing it was not already doing, while giving them billions of dollars in the process.

https://www.nti.org/learn/facilities/165/



That is of course unless you just don't believe the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

Or if you don't believe the Institute for Science and International Security's report on Iran, either:

http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/IAEA_Iran_Report_Analysis_18Feb2010.pdf





Or their report the following year:

https://isis-online.org/uploads/isi..._Report_ISIS_analysis_25Feb2011_final-new.pdf




Iran built that stockpile in just a few years using almost exclusively the IR-1s. The deal allowed them to keep producing enriched uranium at the exact same rate they always had, using the IR-1s, the oldest and most obselete of their centrifuges, and allowed them to keep testing and developing the IR-8s that would have enriched uranium at 20-40 times the rate of the IR-1s. That is irrefuatable. That isn't emotion talking, you're just wrong.







The framework of the JCPOA Iran would be allowed to keep 660 pounds of enriched uranium. You need about 55 to make a warhead. That means that under the agreement they were allowed to keep enough to make roughly 12 warheads and to continue producing enriched uranium at the same exact rate they always had while we were not allowed to search any of their military bases or their secret nuclear test sites to ensure they weren't storing EU there. And in return we were going to give them 150 billion dollars, and allow them to sell EU to Russia and China. So Iran's path to both of those things was simply adhering to the agreement. That's what you're not understanding.



This statement is so naively incorrect it actually hurt my feelings.



This one did too. The level of projection you're doing here is appalling. You aren't a dumb guy. Stop just accepting what ever Left Wing news source you read first as gospel and actually read some non-political sources for your information from time to time. You're so incredibly wrong about this.



WHO IS DEFENDING TRUMP AND WHO IS WARMONGERING?

Since you're obviously going to ignore the bulk of my post, since the information won't penetrate your blind partisanship, could you at least take your blinders off for a moment and take a stab at objectively anwering this one for me? Nobody is defending Trump. The JCPOA, as has just been demonstrated, was a garbage deal that was justly scrapped. Thinking that doesn't make you a Republican.

You are either being dishonest or very stupid. Why are you posting reports from 2010 and 2011 when we are discussing a deal that was put in place late 2015 early 2016? You also still don´t seem to understand the different enrichment levels (energy, medicinal and weapons grade) in Uranium and what that means for usage. (It´s like you don´t comprehend the difference between 3.67% and 90%+) We are talking 2018/2019 here. The JCPOA and IAEA have been quite clear on this matter. That Iran are complying for the most part and that their nuclear weapons capabillities have been crippled and break out time greatly increased.

Here is the IAEA report for 2018

https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/18/11/gov2018-47.pdf

No enriched uranium has been accumulated through enrichment R&D activities, and Iran’s enrichment R&D with and without uranium has been conducted using centrifuges within the limits defined in the JCPOA

Iran has continued the enrichment of UF6 at FEP.16 Iran has not enriched uranium above 3.67% U-235 (para. 28).

Throughout the reporting period, Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile has not exceeded 300 kg of UF6 enriched up to 3.67% U-235 (or the equivalent in different chemical forms) (para. 56). The quantity of 300 kg of UF6 corresponds to 202.8 kg of uranium.17

Iran has conducted its enrichment activities in line with its long-term enrichment and R&D enrichment plan, as provided to the Agency on 16 January 2016

Iran has continued to permit the Agency to monitor – through measures agreed with Iran, including containment and surveillance measures – that all uranium ore concentrate (UOC) produced in Iran or obtained from any other source is transferred to the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) at Esfahan (para. 68). Iran also provided the Agency with all information necessary to enable the Agency to verify the production of UOC and the inventory of UOC produced in Iran or obtained from any other source

At the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), no more than 1044 IR-1 centrifuges have been maintained in one wing (Unit 2) of the facility (para. 46). On 6 November 2018, the Agency verified that 1020 IR-1 centrifuges were installed in six cascades. On the same date, the Agency also verified that two IR-1 centrifuges were installed in a layout of 16 IR-1 centrifuge positions20 and one IR-1 centrifuge was installed in a single position,21 for the purpose of conducting “initial research and R&D activities related to stable isotope production”.22,23 Throughout the reporting period, Iran has not conducted any uranium enrichment or related research and development (R&D) activities, and there has not been any nuclear material at the plant (para. 45).

Iran has continued to permit the Agency to use on-line enrichment monitors and electronic seals which communicate their status within nuclear sites to Agency inspectors, and to facilitate the automated collection of Agency measurement recordings registered by installed measurement devices (para. 67.1). Iran has issued long-term visas to Agency inspectors designated for Iran as requested by the Agency, provided proper working space for the Agency at nuclear sites and facilitated the use of working space at locations near nuclear sites in Iran

The Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at the nuclear facilities and locations outside facilities where nuclear material is customarily used (LOFs) declared by Iran under its Safeguards Agreement. Evaluations regarding the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities for Iran remained ongoing. 27. Since Implementation Day, the Agency has been verifying and monitoring the implementation by Iran of its nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA.

So to make it short. You are wrong and dishonest at the same time. Shall we break down every single paragraph and how amazingly wrong and ill informed you are?

And if you didn´t counter arguments and actual stats with "well thats how you feel, you are naive, i know better" then I might stop throwing it in your face. No reason to post actual stats when your limit seems to lie at "well thats what you think, i know better" and you then post stats that are irrelevant and obsolete.

 

[wonderbread]

Trump Kim Summit?

C'mon... Trump and Kim look like two blindfolded monkeys trying to piss in a swinging bucket.

 

[hillelslovak87]

Trump Kim Summit?

C'mon... Trump and Kim look like two blindfolded monkeys trying to piss in a swinging bucket.

False. When two monkeys finish pissing, there is resolution and relief, two things neither Donald Trump nor Kim Jong Un could hope to provide.

 

[carlos cadona]

They've already started talking about having a third summit.

 

[wonderbread]

They've already started talking about having a third summit.

After the summit...

Kim - "The great leader took on the evil USA and made them look weak"
Trump - "The great leader took on the evil NK and made them look weak"

 

[ToxicShocker]

Wait until you hear about Trump's envoy to Venezuela, Elliott Abrams....

Holy shit, dude looks like Nosferatu

 

[Sauron]

Or if you don't believe the Institute for Science and International Security's report on Iran, either:

http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/IAEA_Iran_Report_Analysis_18Feb2010.pdf





Or their report the following year:

https://isis-online.org/uploads/isi..._Report_ISIS_analysis_25Feb2011_final-new.pdf
.

ISIS are a neocon funded group that's in league with FDD and all the worst neocon groups. David Albright is a hack. Don't use their work unless you're going to disclose that they are not impartial. They have a big agenda and their politics is not separated from their work.

I absolutely question their motives and funding. So no. I don't believe their bullshit because they are against the deal and that impacts their work.

They are not representative of the wider non proliferation community who are largely for the JCPOA. The IAEA (the foremost authority) have confirmed Iran is in Compliance eleven times.