If Werdum beats Big Nog ? I am well aware of their first fight finish but don't forget JDS's fights with Cain as well, how much different they've turned out. I feel like Werdum improved a lot and might win this. He has solid chin usually and his knees+kick are pretty good.
JDS needs an easy win after such a rape. Besides, it's a step down for Werdum, IMO. He should get a title shot if he beats Nog.