JDS rarely shoots bad takedowns. He barely goes for any types of takedowns at all. When he does, it's usually late in the round for points, like against Carwin. JDS is a really, really good escaper both from the scramble and from the clinch, also good at getting up from the bottom. Not many openings for chokes for Rothwell. This means it'll likely be a stand-up fight where Rothwell has a chin and power, while JDS probably still has both and is a lot more skilled whether he strikes off the jab, catches someone with a reaction shot, or with flurries (typically against the cage). The speed difference is also sizable. So for Rothwell to win the most likely outcome would be catching him right on the chin after being outpointed, while JDS can win this by either a cautious decision or by KO. It's Heavyweight, which ups Ben's chances, but a hail mary is still a hail mary.