Honestly? At this point? Evander.
If nothing else with Evander Holyfield, he'll always show up in shape and have a good beard. Toney got to 'Vander last time by working the body and being in good enough shape to keep his foot on the gas pedal. He wasn't 90 mph or anything, but he was cruising along at a steady 55 or 60, which is enough against Evander Holyfield at this point.
What we've seen from Toney in his last handful of fights, though, is that he couldn't care less about meaningful training camps or being in any kind of shape. He's slow, out of shape, off balance, and lazy. Unless something drastic changes in the way James Toney approaches fighters, he's lucky to beat club fighters, raw prospects, and journeymen.
Holyfield has at least kept himself in shape to warrant a title fight recently.