Economy It's Not Just Low Income Jobs That Are At Risk Of Automation...

[spiderguarda]

I don't think it's that simple. As technology advances, A.I. and other forms of automation will be able to replace an increasing amount of people. For instance, a single program could theoretically replace thousands of workers, while it may only take a handful of people to have written / maintain the program. So, that leaves thousands of people searching for employment.

Jobs aren't suddenly going to open up if everything becomes automated. Only a few, very skilled people will be employed to create / maintain the automated programs while the rest could be left out in the cold.

That’s exactly what people don’t get. The argument is that you can get a job now maintaining the robots doing your job. Are people that dense? How many people do you need to maintain the robots? Not many.

I was watching a tv show where a truck driver argued his job will be made redundant very soon. A lead product or engineering manager from Mercedes Benz I think showed off their latest automated truck and argued it would not be that soon. He didn’t even want to really speculate how many years where a fully autonomous truck would arrive but the truck driver argued automated driving trucks would allow less experienced and younger guys to be hired and the older and more expensive, older, experienced drivers are pushed out.

His argument is that automated is good enough for business to now start on the path to hiring less experienced drivers.

We’ve seen labor wage arbitrage where western countries have outsourced IT, call center to countries like India and call centers are huge in the Philippines.

Universal Income is naive. Unless companies are forced to pay for it, which I highly doubt, the burden will as usual will the middle class. Trump gave the rich a huge tax cut at the middle class’ expense. I don’t know how fiscal politicians in Congress can live with themselves. Greece and other countries get scolded for printing money and borrowing but when the US does it, the consumer-driven powerhouse economy will take care of the debt.

No wonder millennials hate the baby boomers and there are contrite baby boomers writing articles and books on how they messed things up.

 

[spiderguarda]

It can be VERY good.

In this specific instance, this law firm can keep all their human attorneys and give them a raise and/or lower their work week hours with the time and money saved from getting this computer attorney.

But if the greedy get their way, they'll likely fire the extra attorneys and pocket the extra income the computer generates. It just depends on how it's used.

Ever dealt with law firms? They, especially will pocket the extra income. Please don’t be naive or Pollyanna.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Didn't happen, but note that almost all of the lobbying there was *against* regulations or to change the FDA Food Safety Modernization Act that was already coming, and to some extent reflected a battle between grocery stores and suppliers (grocery stores are fucked by outbreaks of foodborne illnesses). Not sure if there are any real examples of corporations actually lobbying to increase regs on their industry as opposed to trying to weaken proposed regs, but the idea of it is a cute attempt to convert anti-corporate sentiment into pro-corporate action.

Not sure what "didn't happen"; the lobbying efforts, or my reply?
I agree with the rest of your post.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Glad to see you caught this. I was getting ready to address the fact that, no matter how often right-libertarians repeat that dog shit claim or how much sense it may make if you don't think about it, there is basically no evidence of it. It's self-serving mythology. That corporate fiduciaries and shareholders would actively reduce/inhibit profits just to shrink the market in the long term is absurd and completely inconsistent with the corporate form.

@Anung Un Rama

Yes?

 

[Trotsky]

Yes?

Just including you in the discussion since the refuted argument was made (by Greoric) for you.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Just including you in the discussion since the refuted argument was made (by Greoric) for you.

I'm not following? Jack quoted me, why would you need to tag me?

 

[Trotsky]

I'm not following? Jack quoted me, why would you need to tag me?

Because I was both responding to Jack and supplementing Jack's response to you saying that Greoric's argument was hogwash.

 

[hillelslovak87]

Just don't automate pot farming in WA. Let us put our hands into the dirt, and just let the machines water for us, and buck our plants. Machines don't (at least I hope not) spot them trichomes, or the difference between an OG and Kosher kush.......

#FuckRobots
#NotFuckThemButScrewThem
#WellNotLiterallyScrewThem
#IHateThemIfTheyTakeMyJob

 

[Teen Wolf]

Roll on complete automation.

Who the fuck wants to waste time working when life is so short as it is.

 

[7437]

That’s exactly what people don’t get. The argument is that you can get a job now maintaining the robots doing your job. Are people that dense? How many people do you need to maintain the robots? Not many.

I was watching a tv show where a truck driver argued his job will be made redundant very soon. A lead product or engineering manager from Mercedes Benz I think showed off their latest automated truck and argued it would not be that soon. He didn’t even want to really speculate how many years where a fully autonomous truck would arrive but the truck driver argued automated driving trucks would allow less experienced and younger guys to be hired and the older and more expensive, older, experienced drivers are pushed out.

His argument is that automated is good enough for business to now start on the path to hiring less experienced drivers.

We’ve seen labor wage arbitrage where western countries have outsourced IT, call center to countries like India and call centers are huge in the Philippines.

Universal Income is naive. Unless companies are forced to pay for it, which I highly doubt, the burden will as usual will the middle class. Trump gave the rich a huge tax cut at the middle class’ expense. I don’t know how fiscal politicians in Congress can live with themselves. Greece and other countries get scolded for printing money and borrowing but when the US does it, the consumer-driven powerhouse economy will take care of the debt.

No wonder millennials hate the baby boomers and there are contrite baby boomers writing articles and books on how they messed things up.

You can get a job fixing automation if you want it. That's what I do. Super easy to get into it.

 

[PrinceOfPain]

You can get a job fixing automation if you want it. That's what I do. Super easy to get into it.

I think his problem with that is that it's not really any sort of solution, since repairing automation is probably a very easily automated job, to the point that it will likely employ an insignificantly tiny number of people.

Basically, if your work can be reduced and performed according to a predictable code, it's probably beneath all but the most wretched and unambitious humans of the future.
Of course most valued human effort (driving, practicing law, practicing medicine, engineering, etc) really just comes down to the performance of codifiable routines, so most people are pretty unimpressive - hence the huge concern over AI.

 

[7437]

I think his problem with that is that it's not really any sort of solution, since repairing automation is probably a very easily automated job, to the point that it will likely employ an insignificantly tiny number of people.

Basically, if your work can be reduced and performed according to a predictable code, it's probably beneath all but the most wretched and unambitious humans of the future.
Of course most valued human effort (driving, practicing law, practicing medicine, engineering, etc) really just comes down to the performance of codifiable routines, so most people are pretty unimpressive - hence the huge concern over AI.

It's not something you codify routines into, that's the issue. We talk about it sometimes, it's an interesting thought excercise. That and programming itself is fucked up alot of the time, and imperfect.

 

[Fronk]

This is why I am a anarcho-syndicalist.

Automation is a good thing if it leads to shorter work days.

Automation a bad thing, if it destroys jobs.

The question of automation is who is going to benefit from it.

Basically this. It's interesting that everyone seems to assume that automation is going to bring us this no work, universal income type of society where we will all live in communistic bliss. If you go by current trends a smaller and smaller sliver of the population is actually benefiting from this increase in productivity. Wealth inequality is reaching absurd levels, on a global level of course, but in the US in particular. How is this trend going to be changed? By the ones most benefiting from it? That's why the breakdown of national cohesion is such a vital part of the neo-liberal project. A strong nation state and an awakened working class has been a powerful shield against explotation by capitalists in the West, but this is changing. Because if the people really want that blissful life, they will probably have to take it with their own hands. The problem is I just don't see the types of movements that came into existence during the later parts of the 19th century that forced through the changes that made the middle-class lifestyle possible anymore. We really need a Marx of our era.

 

[PEB]

I saw an interesting research report about how AI can be considered Musk level scary. According to a research report based on research on AI progress since the creation of machine learning in the 1980's the first 10 years AI improved by about 50 percent in processing and decision making, the next ten years till around 2005 it doubled in processing and decision making, here where it gets worrisome is till 2015 it more progressed to 4 times in processing and decision making and in the last 3 years it improved by 4 times already.

It's accelerating because of improvements in machine learning and computing scale. It impacts everything from cellphones through medical decision making. Chinese are making the most impact in more aspects of peoples life though they continue to lag in progress of stages of development. Canada becoming a world leader in the development of AI where they are a vacuum sucking up the most talented developers.

 

[spiderguarda]

Lawyers are easily replaced and it was explained that legal language is very structured and can be codified and taught to AI.

What has changed is computing power, cheap massive storage where you can feed data sets into AI and it will learn. X ray and radiologists? Why not feed huge data sets to AI systems and they will learn. There’s the self learning approach and having humans tell the AI this is right or wrong.

The AI algorithms are not programming code with logic flows of if this, then do this or else do this etc.

 

[spiderguarda]

It's not something you codify routines into, that's the issue. We talk about it sometimes, it's an interesting thought excercise. That and programming itself is fucked up alot of the time, and imperfect.

What do you actually do? Can you provide an example?

 

[spiderguarda]

It's not something you codify routines into, that's the issue. We talk about it sometimes, it's an interesting thought excercise. That and programming itself is fucked up alot of the time, and imperfect.

I thought that was how it works? If you can codify routines then it can be outsourced to cheap labor in India or a call center that read from from scripts and they don’t go off script as their supervisors listen in and speak to the agent to respond to you while you can’t hear the supervisor.

What you’re saying seem to be contradict to how automation works. But I do understand AI have quite a way to go but I know websites already using chatbots and it’s so easy to figure out just like voice recognition call center software have limitations. But we see an exponential drive towards automation whether it’s using automated kiosks.

You’re in a perfect job.

 

[7437]

What do you actually do? Can you provide an example?

I troubleshoot and repair. I am an industrial electritian/programmer.

For example (this actually took awhile to figure out) i had a vessel that was supposed to fill with 1100 lbs of water. It filled to the top, and someone shut off a hand valve. Went to make sure that the scale was reading correctly, and it was. Checked in the program, and I had a different reading there. Long story short, we had changed out a different set of scales that day, and another programmer had disabled the entire scales routine. He had forgotten about the 6th one that was physically seperate but shared that part of the program. He didnt include that change in his notes, and turned his cell phone off that night.

That kind of issue cant be programmed around. People fucking up the programming itself is a very common issue.

 

[7437]

I thought that was how it works? If you can codify routines then it can be outsourced to cheap labor in India or a call center that read from from scripts and they don’t go off script as their supervisors listen in and speak to the agent to respond to you while you can’t hear the supervisor.

What you’re saying seem to be contradict to how automation works. But I do understand AI have quite a way to go but I know websites already using chatbots and it’s so easy to figure out just like voice recognition call center software have limitations. But we see an exponential drive towards automation whether it’s using automated kiosks.

You’re in a perfect job.

It's a good job. Dont..... usually..... have to do much and it pays. See my above example for why you cant program around some things. Often it's the program that needs fixing. Also sometimes you want to do an operation that it isnt actually programmed to do, and have to come up with something on the fly.

 

[Daveb]

https://www.amazon.com/Absolved-Matthew-Binder-ebook/dp/B07F2P3N55

This book is about a rich Doctor in 2036 thinking he is better than all the people who have no job due to automation. Then a program is written that diagnosis cancer better than he can putting him out of a job