As mentioned, the fact that it's the Naismith Hall of Fame and not the NBA HOF makes it even more likely that he will be first ballot. Between his cultural impact, his play during his prime, overall longevity in addition to his international appearances, I believe he is a first ballot Hall of Famer.
If you compare him with TMac whose personal and basketball life intertwines with VC's, there's a lot of similarity and he was a first ballot HOFer. While Mcgrady may have been considered the better player, you can make argument that VC's accomplishments are on par.
All Star Teams: VC 8 vs TMac 7
All NBA Teams: VC 2 vs TMac 7 including 2 All NBA First Teams (this is clearly where TMac has the advantage)
Years in the NBA: VC 22 vs TMac 16
National Team: VC 1 Olympic Gold Medal + 1 FIBA Americas Championship vs TMAC 1 FIBA Americas Championship
Other Individual Accolades
VC: College All American, 2x All ACC Team, and NBA Rookie of the Year
TMac: 2x NBA Scoring Champion, NBA Most Improved Player
Long story short, I have no problem with VC being on the first ballot especially if TMac made it on his first try.