Opinion Is Universal Basic Income the way forward?

[panamaican]

No.

Both robots and total jobs have been increasing in the economy as a whole. Some sectors have seen positive robot growth and negative job growth, though.

Ok, so where do you think he is wrong in his analysis.

 

[MilesAbove]

Create the network
Automate all capable tasks
Hobby-based society
The end.

 

[Utahraptor Ostrommaysi]

The entire military budget is $700 billion. There are 210 million Americans 18 or over. A $1000 a month UBI would cost $2.52 trillion per year. A $2000 a month UBI would cost $5 trillion per year. Add in some UBI funding for children and it would be a lot more.

How much of cutting the military and taxing cannabis would pay for that lol? It's almost like the people supporting UBI are high and just want hard working people to pay for their drugs.

5 trillion dollars a year isn't that much in the grand scheme of things. For example, our current healthcare system will cost 35-47 trillion dollars over the next 10 years (but Medicare for all is the unaffordable healthcare plan lol) also I don't know if you know this but THE US LITERALLY PRINTS IT'S OWN FUCKING MONEY! That's one of the benefits of being a country that controls it's own currency. If you run out of money, you can always make more.
How do you think the US can afford to constantly bail out the banks and these big corporations every time there is an economic collapse? Because the US is the richest, most prosperous country of all time, and the US government controls it's own currency.
Trust me, if the US needs money for something bad enough, they will find a way to make the money appear. If they can afford to bail out the cruise industry, they can afford to pay US citizens 1000-2000 dollars a month.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Ok, so where do you think he is wrong in his analysis.

I don't think he's wrong in his analysis (not independently evaluating it, but I'll take his word for it). If a sector adds a robot, I'll buy that on average that it loses ~3.3 jobs. I don't think he'd argue that adding a million robots would cause U3 to go up ~200 bps.

 

[spamking]

Life isn’t black and white like you think it is. There are lots of colors in between. You honestly think people will quit their jobs in mass because they get a couple grand a month? I don’t know about you but a thousand or 2 thousand a month ain’t shit. I would literally take that money and save it for retirement. You need to expand your thinking

I think a lot of people would save it for retirement . . . heck, it might even allow me to retire a year or two early.

 

[spamking]

Of course they would. I would. If you hand everything to everyone, what incentive do they have to go out and earn anything? I'm not going to my 9-5 job anymore if I'm getting a couple of grand a month to sit on my ass.
I could live pretty comfortably off of two grand a month. On top of that, I would probably qualify for other social assistance as well.

Are you single? I'm not sure how anyone could or would want to live off of just $2k/month.

 

[sickc0d3r]

It's a great way to kill the motivation to do better for a lot of people.

If the problem that UBI is intended to solve is a dwindling need for human labor, what difference does it make if some people aren't motivated?

 

[Jack V Savage]

If the problem that UBI is intended to solve is a dwindling need for human labor, what difference does it make if some people aren't motivated?

If you're inclined to see unemployment as primarily a problem of indolence in any economic circumstances, obviously UBI is a terrible idea. If you see it as sometimes caused by structural factors, you'll be more open to it or some other kind of structural solution to the problem of people having no market income.

 

[Gregolian]

I think a lot of people would save it for retirement . . . heck, it might even allow me to retire a year or two early.

Or pay off debt then save.

Honestly, if UBI were a thing and it was $2k a month I'd use the government's money to rent an apartment and pay monthly utility bills. It'd allow me to get a pretty banging spot
https://www.apartments.com/city-creek-landing-salt-lake-city-ut/4q97s7j/

And use the money from my job for like food, savings, and paying down my student loans. It'd actually probably allow me to completely pay off my student loans inside a year.

 

[superpunch]

5 trillion dollars a year isn't that much in the grand scheme of things. For example, our current healthcare system will cost 35-47 trillion dollars over the next 10 years (but Medicare for all is the unaffordable healthcare plan lol) also I don't know if you know this but THE US LITERALLY PRINTS IT'S OWN FUCKING MONEY! That's one of the benefits of being a country that controls it's own currency. If you run out of money, you can always make more.
How do you think the US can afford to constantly bail out the banks and these big corporations every time there is an economic collapse? Because the US is the richest, most prosperous country of all time, and the US government controls it's own currency.
Trust me, if the US needs money for something bad enough, they will find a way to make the money appear. If they can afford to bail out the cruise industry, they can afford to pay US citizens 1000-2000 dollars a month.

$2000 is way too high. Like half the country would just stop working entirely at that amount.

Especially at $2000 a month you could live a luxurious lifestyle like a king almost anywhere in the world outside western Europe or North America.

 

[Gregolian]

$2000 is way too high. Like half the country would just stop working entirely at that amount.

Especially at $2000 a month you could live a luxurious lifestyle like a king almost anywhere in the world outside western Europe or North America.

$2000 doesn't go very far in major cities.

Look up Seattle apartment prices. I was looking at jobs down there and own a vehicle that you'd really rather not drive around downtown Seattle so I was looking for something in walking distance to the big County Courthouse cause that was where the job was... Like $1800 a month, NO utilities included, for a 350 sq ft micro apartment.

 

[panamaican]

I don't think he's wrong in his analysis. If a sector adds a robot, I'll buy that on average that it loses ~3.3 jobs. I don't think he'd argue that adding a million robots would cause U3 to go up ~200 bps.

That doesn't make any sense based on what he said. He didn't say U3 would go up, he didn't say anything about U3 at all. He said it's a net loss of 3.3 jobs nationally per robot. That has nothing to do with U3 .Maybe U6 but definitely not U3.

 

[Based and White Pilled]

$2000 is way too high. Like half the country would just stop working entirely at that amount.

Especially at $2000 a month you could live a luxurious lifestyle like a king almost anywhere in the world outside western Europe or North America.

What? In a country where average income in the neighborhood of $40-50k, you think a significant portion of people would quit their jobs and retire on $24k?

 

[scorpipede]

No, I've been quite consistent. Thats always been my feeling on UBI and is what I've said in pretty much every conversation on the topic I've ever had and its what I based my words on here in this thread. I didn't move any goalpost.

I didn't bother reading the rest of that nonsense. Raise your kids to do for themselves, to want to make something of themselves and not expcect a life on the dime of people who achieve. Its clear no one instilled such values in you.

 

[Utahraptor Ostrommaysi]

$2000 is way too high. Like half the country would just stop working entirely at that amount.

Especially at $2000 a month you could live a luxurious lifestyle like a king almost anywhere in the world outside western Europe or North America.

LOL no they wouldn't. 2000 dollars a month is barely enough money to pay your bills and enough food to last for a couple of weeks. Especially considering the fact that we are currently going through an economic collapse. 2000 dollars a month is nothing.
Considering the fact I'm pretty sure that none of us live outside of Western Europe or North America I don't know why you even bothered to bring that up. It's completely irreverent to this discussion.

 

[superpunch]

LOL no they wouldn't. 2000 dollars a month is barely enough money to pay your bills and enough food to last for a couple of weeks. Especially considering the fact that we are currently going through an economic collapse. 2000 dollars a month is nothing.

$2000 a month is easily enough money to live on in lots of the country. Not major cities. But go to flyover country and $2000 a month is a ticket to stop working. Maybe work like 10 hours a week if you want a little extra cash. This would cause so much decay.

Considering the fact I'm pretty sure that none of us live outside of Western Europe or North America I don't know why you even bothered to bring that up. It's completely irreverent to this discussion.

Travel is a thing. $2000 a month and you could just retire and live like a king on South American and Asian beaches for the rest of your life.

 

[Utahraptor Ostrommaysi]

$2000 a month is easily enough money to live on in lots of the country. Not major cities. But go to flyover country and $2000 a month is a ticket to stop working. Maybe work like 10 hours a week if you want a little extra cash. This would cause so much decay.


Travel is a thing. $2000 a month and you could just retire and live like a king on South American and Asian beaches for the rest of your life.

Not if you're fucking broke dude, no one can live a luxurious life off of just $2000 a month. $2000 a month might be enough to just pay for the bare minimum, but even that's doubtful when you consider things like the price of food, gas, and housing. (Not to mention things like healthcare and insurance) Trust me, unless you live by yourself and you literally only spend your money on the essentials (and who wants to live their life like that?) you can't live off $2000 dollars a month.
Except the world doesn't work like that. You can't just pack up your suitcase and move to another country like you could if you wanted to move to another city or state. Moving to another country is a long and tedious process that most Americans don't have the time, nor the patience for.

 

[Jack V Savage]

That doesn't make any sense based on what he said. He didn't say U3 would go up, he didn't say anything about U3 at all. He said it's a net loss of 3.3 jobs nationally per robot. That has nothing to do with U3 .Maybe U6 but definitely not U3.

It makes sense, but if you'd like, I'll clarify further: One million new robots wouldn't lead to ~3.3 million additional people not having jobs.

 

[superpunch]

Not if you're fucking broke dude, no one can live a luxurious life off of just $2000 a month. $2000 a month might be enough to just pay for the bare minimum, but even that's doubtful when you consider things like the price of food, gas, and housing. (Not to mention things like healthcare and insurance) Trust me, unless you live by yourself and you literally only spend your money on the essentials (and who wants to live their life like that?) you can't live off $2000 dollars a month.
Except the world doesn't work like that. You can't just pack up your suitcase and move to another country like you could if you wanted to move to another city or state. Moving to another country is a long and tedious process that most Americans don't have the time, nor the patience for.

You can go for about 3 months almost anywhere. Then fly out and go back, rinse repeat. Or just travel around. $2000 a month and I'm living as a UBI nomad traveling the world or just doing visa runs for the rest of my life. Never working again.

Or in flyover country: I get $2000, my wife gets $2000. $50K/ year for doing nothing. You can easily live on that even in cities outside of SF/ LA/ DC/ etc. Neither of us are ever working again. If we get like $1K per kid, holy shit. No one in the country is ever working again.

 

[sickc0d3r]

If you're inclined to see unemployment as primarily a problem of indolence in any economic circumstances, obviously UBI is a terrible idea. If you see it as sometimes caused by structural factors, you'll be more open to it or some other kind of structural solution to the problem of people having no market income.

Sounds right. If "robots are taking our jobs" means losers just need to stop being lazier than the robots, I guess it's a problem that UBI would only exacerbate. I'm not really in favor of it at the moment myself, but I can see some benefit to people dropping out of the workforce even in a strong economy. Like a mom who can suddenly afford to stay home and raise her kids, for example.