Is MMA the hardest sport to bet?

[DarkneT]

I've Tried tons of techniques betting MMA

Parlays are for mugs
Over/unders are for mugs (except for WMMA)

The only way to profit from MMA is by not being a degenerate and being strict with your bets, looking for value and only betting a couple fights per card

I find football is easier to bet but I always have a good look through a fight card looking for people who shouldn't be underdogs who are..
There's been some really good ones lately

 

[SeattleFightFan]

Baseball is really hard.

Even just picking winners and losers is hard, no team in the NL has a winning percentage over 600.

and yet people do better against the house in baseball than any other sport.

 

[j18lee]

Those thinking they’ll outsmart bookies by betting more obscure sports appear to be sadly mistaken; casinos are keeping nearly twice as much of the money bet on “other” sports as good old-fashioned baseball.​

Maybe the explanation is that for baseball, everyone knows the sport extremely well, so the casino wins the least amount. But then in MMA, most people don't know much, but the select few who does know, are actually winning. Just hypothetical. Kinda like those daily fantasy websites, a select few sharks are making a killing while the rest lose money.

 

[Bend NvR Break]

EASIEST to bet imo if you stop watching as a fan and pay attention as a student to the craft

 

[Bend NvR Break]

You can make good money betting on MMA, but you need to bet as soon as the lines are released. Invariably, the bookies get the lines wrong when they get released. By the time the fight starts, the line is usually pretty sharp, and it's hard to make money.

Not true. Every situation is different.

 

[SeattleFightFan]

Maybe the explanation is that for baseball, everyone knows the sport extremely well, so the casino wins the least amount. But then in MMA, most people don't know much, but the select few who does know, are actually winning. Just hypothetical. Kinda like those daily fantasy websites, a select few sharks are making a killing while the rest lose money.

yes, i think that's true.

but also remember it's not 'bad gamblers vs good gamblers'. it's 'bad gamblers vs the house' + 'good gamblers vs the house'. and the point of the article was that the more obscure the sport, the more the 'bad gamblers vs the house' overwhelms the 'good gambles vs the house'.

mma is an obscure sport.

furthermore, gamblers are notoriously bad with self critique so i guess my main point is that although most mma gamblers lose money overall, many of those losers consider themselves one of those select few sharks.

 

[SeattleFightFan]

last point: i haven't seen the numbers post-fight, but i think Vegas took a beating on Saturday's boxing match....

 

[trident]

I dont know how it compares to other sports, but a healthy understanding of the fight game, the fighters and limiting your bets to just a few a card, can make you money.

MMA has some glaring lines to capitalize in if you know the game. It also has whammies though, so even though you were right, Rotheell still beat Overeem.

The few times I have had time to study up, i have done well. Usually, I dont gave the time to study and I lose.

But if you are a smart bettor, not betting emotionally or because you "like a fighter", you can do well.

For instance, a smart bettor would have seen those plus odds on Woodley and gone hungry hippos on it. That was a no brainer for anyone paying attention.

And there a decent amount of fights like that, that are just out of line with reality.

Sherdog betting forum is pretty damn good

 

[Pancake Sprawl]

MMA is easier because i don't think the bookies pay attention.

wasn't Woodley a big underdog vs Till?

 

[in the liver]

In general you can tell who is going to win in other sports because most of the time bad teams or players compete against each other. You can also tell how they should be doing by analysing their latest performances.

However, in MMA, the fights are usually put together to match the point both fighters are in their careers, so their latest performaces should be somewhat equal. And you never see top ranked guys fighting people down the ranks like it happens in others.

Put that together with the fact that pretty much any fight can end/change with one punch the risk goes way up.

Then you have the judging and the reffing which is inconsistent as fuck.

I dont have much experience in sports betting so i may be talking out of my ass, but curious to know what you all think

Mainly because most fights get cancelled

 

[YouKnowWhat?]

no, boxing is harder ggg was the -500 favorite right after the fight ended. No way Canelo won the fight

 

[scytheavatar]

It's by far the easiest sport to bet, every card you are guaranteed to find a couple of odds which will make your jaw drop on the floor. Like why the hell is Till favorite over Woodley?

 

[BobbyHillComedian]

In general you can tell who is going to win in other sports because most of the time bad teams or players compete against each other. You can also tell how they should be doing by analysing their latest performances.

However, in MMA, the fights are usually put together to match the point both fighters are in their careers, so their latest performaces should be somewhat equal. And you never see top ranked guys fighting people down the ranks like it happens in others.

Put that together with the fact that pretty much any fight can end/change with one punch the risk goes way up.

Then you have the judging and the reffing which is inconsistent as fuck.

I dont have much experience in sports betting so i may be talking out of my ass, but curious to know what you all think

MMA is among the easiest sports to bet imo

With football, basketball, soccer, boxing, whatever, Vegas knows what they're doing. You really can't find good values very easily. If someone is an underdog but stylistically matches up well the oddsmakers are much smarter, not to mention the use of analytics

With MMA they don't really know what's up and the lines reflect this. Partly because it's a newer sport and partly because there's so much randomness involved. I'll give you an example... DC was +155 to +185 against Stipe, implying he was a pretty big underdog, but most fight fans would well you that fight was more of a tossup. Woodley was like +155 against Till.

That is how you find value when betting... you don't try to pick who will win and bet them, you look at odds and try to find ones that are too low or too high and take advantage of the discrepancy. I swear some of you guys don't know how to gamble properly.

Vegas will eventually get more sophisticated setting MMA lines but for the time being there's a lot of easy money to be made

 

[Ken Fresno]

no, boxing is harder ggg was the -500 favorite right after the fight ended. No way Canelo won the fight

lol this. Nobody who bets on boxing could ever say mma is worse at this point. Anyone who actually bets just lost several hundred more dollars to Golden Boy.

 

[BobbyHillComedian]

lol this. Nobody who bets on boxing could ever say mma is worse at this point. Anyone who actually bets just lost several hundred more dollars to Golden Boy.

The trick to betting boxing is to assume corruption

I didn't bet this one but think about it... If there was gonna be a shady decision it was obviously going to benefit Canelo right? So you should just bet Canelo if you think the fight will be close, because the lines don't factor in standard boxing corruption

 

[Ken Fresno]

The trick to betting boxing is to assume corruption

I agree. It's just obviously a spot where we all thought "There is no fuckin way, with all the attention..............."

Also, its hard to even bet Canelo will survive to get the gift, knowing about the juice and the knee injury. Should have just stayed away.

GGG basically fought the fight Canelo did in the first fight, and did a better job at it than Canelo did. Circling, controlling with the jab, countering off Canelo's shots, taking the center when he felt like it. And this time he rocked Canelo, and never got rocked himself. Still lost.

 

[BobbyHillComedian]

I agree. It's just obviously a spot where we all thought "There is no fuckin way, with all the attention..............."

Also, its hard to even bet Canelo will survive to get the gift, knowing about the juice and the knee injury. Should have just stayed away.

GGG basically fought the fight Canelo did in the first fight, and did a better job at it than Canelo did. Circling, controlling with the jab, countering off Canelo's shots, taking the center when he felt like it. And this time he rocked Canelo, and never got rocked himself. Still lost.

Yeah... Canelo did look better than in the first fight and was dominant the first two rounds... as the fight went on it seemed like GGG's jab was doing more to drain Canelo's energy than Canelo's body shots were, contrary to standard boxing thinking... GGG ate some hard body shots early but if anything seemed to gain steam while Canelo looked gassed at times in the later rounds.

I had it 7-5 or 8-4 GGG and was kind of expecting a bullshit Canelo victory lol

Boxing... stay classy

 

[hearthstone25]

I was so pissed to learn Woodley was the underdog vs Till just before i watched the fight. I still dont get how that was possible. I even told the friend i was watching it with who doesnt watch much mma that Woodley was the big favorite then UFC showed the odds and i felt embarrassed and confused. How dafuq did that betting line happen??

 

[TITS]

MMA is one of the easier sports to bet. Easier than baseball anyway. Keep the parlays to 5 fights or less. I've had a bunch of 6+ teams parlays go to shit because of just one fight losing.

 

[MilesAbove]

Absolutely not..... but that's because I spent 10 years working in the industry and spent a LOT of time scouting fighters.

In any sport, it is about the wealth of knowledge you have and how assured you are that you can control your subjective likes/dislikes.

I can't bet on baseball because I love the SF Giants and hate the Dodgers. I don't bet on American Football because I just don't know enough.


Currently hitting 72% on MMA... because I know too damn much and remain consistent.